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April 15-16 Severe Weather threat


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low level high winds are going to be a problem before the front arrives. First strong southeast winds up the mountains of NC and very strong winds in East Tennessee overnight Friday. Also in central to northern Alabama. Then Saturday the winds cross into NC and re-strengthen on the GFS in central NC, up to 40knts. At the surface so thats impressive. The models aren't good with winds reaching the surface in any convection, so obviously that could change things. This definitely has potential to do damage, Also the heavy rain threat in the Apps still looks legit. Overall this should be a good rain event for all of NC finally, with excellent Atlantic inflow over the eastern half of the state.

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Here is my video for today.... just thought I would throw this up here in case anybody was interested.

I agree with Robert...heavy rain threat is real. In fact, the RPM with one of it's overnight runs was printing out over 3" even around GSO....but the mountains and foothills are more likely to see something like that.

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In addition to what was said earlier steeper lapse rates in the mid levels will also usually mean larger hail size (if in the -10C to -30C layer) and more vigorous updrafts "fat vs. skinny CAPE" comes to mind here as well.

Plus, I would think that steep lapse rates would also make things more likely to break through a cap in the atmosphere.

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I wish I could head out to dixie alley for tomorrow but alas I have to work. I will be going for sloppy seconds here in NC on Saturday assuming we can get something to fire up.

as much as you're into Severe wx, its too bad you can't go to Alabama tomorrow. It looks like a shoe-in for twisters there, SPC is really honking this one up. Just looking at the latest RUC and comparing it to the NAM and GFS, its already looking to be a more stout storm center, with a ton going for it. The diffluence over the Tenn Valley into Alabama and other factors point to a tornado outbreak there.

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as much as you're into Severe wx, its too bad you can't go to Alabama tomorrow. It looks like a shoe-in for twisters there, SPC is really honking this one up. Just looking at the latest RUC and comparing it to the NAM and GFS, its already looking to be a more stout storm center, with a ton going for it. The diffluence over the Tenn Valley into Alabama and other factors point to a tornado outbreak there.

yeah tell me about it! I already have a day off next week so it would be hard for me to call in on this. I guess I will watch it all on chasertv.

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yeah tell me about it! I already have a day off next week so it would be hard for me to call in on this. I guess I will watch it all on chasertv.

Ill be in BHAM saturday, bummed I wont be there friday for the fireworks. If I see any damage I'll try to snap some photos (albeit with my iphone)

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low level high winds are going to be a problem before the front arrives. First strong southeast winds up the mountains of NC and very strong winds in East Tennessee overnight Friday.

As someone who has studied mountain waves for several years, I completely agree. I expect a place like Camp Creek in TN (a low elevation location that has incredible wind gusts) to have gusts of at least 80mph. The models show a strong LLJ, with winds below 850mb that are perpendicular to the mountains. The winds veer to a more southwesterly direction around 700mb, which should provide the critical level. This could be a significant mountain wave event for the mountains and foothills of East Tennessee. I plan to take a trip to Camp Creek for this event.

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Central/Eastern NC looks to get hit pretty hard by this system as well... hodos look almost as ridiculous as Day 2, but with a bit less CAPE and UL shear.

You are right hodos are no problem it is the amount of CAPE available that is the main concern .

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This is from FFC. Doesn't sound very impressive to me. Just a "few" severe thunderstorms.

STRONG SHEAR...A LOW LEVEL JET IN

EXCESS OF 50KT...AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

Yes, FFC has the worse AFD in the history of mankind today. We have a significant storm moving into our area and they didn't discuss a single element. Typically you talk about CAPE values, Helicity, timing, etc. But nothing. What does that mean? Something big will hit Georgia b/c FFC isn't saying anything.

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Yes, FFC has the worse AFD in the history of mankind today. We have a significant storm moving into our area and they didn't discuss a single element. Typically you talk about CAPE values, Helicity, timing, etc. But nothing. What does that mean? Something big will hit Georgia b/c FFC isn't saying anything.

I agree that the FFC is probably one of the worse, but they could possibly be on to something. Timing could end up being a issue for Georgia folks. Not saying they wont get hit with something big, but odds are favoring a later hit.

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Watch James Spann latest weather extreme video, because he shows various charts for tomorrow across Alabama. Going by what he's showing, the air looks to be becoming more and more unstable. He said the cap is pretty weak too, and nothing like the other day where it was pretty strong.

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I agree that the FFC is probably one of the worse, but they could possibly be on to something. Timing could end up being a issue for Georgia folks. Not saying they wont get hit with something big, but odds are favoring a later hit.

Well if timing is bad for GA then i'm guessing it will be bad for AL too, since we are right next to each other.

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Well if timing is bad for GA then i'm guessing it will be bad for AL too, since we are right next to each other.

(face palm) Look where the Moderate Risk is located.... eastern Miss. and western and central Alabama. Timing is better for them, then it is the father east you go.

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(face palm) Look where the Moderate Risk is located.... eastern Miss. and western and central Alabama. Timing is better for them, then it is the father east you go.

Yes, but GA is in the area of a 30% or greater chance for severe storms which leads me to believe the storms could hold strong into West GA.

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Yes, but GA is in the area of a 30% or greater chance for severe storms which leads me to believe the storms could hold strong into West GA.

That is very possible. And two weeks ago timing was definitely not an issue at least here. We will see how things look tomorrow. This front could speed up, or it could slow down.

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That is very possible. And two weeks ago timing was definitely not an issue at least here. We will see how things look tomorrow. This front could speed up, or it could slow down.

Yeah good point. I keep hearing that timing is going to be an issue, yet I believe the storms 10 days ago strengthened once they got into GA.

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Is it just me or does every storm system seem to move through GA at almost the exact same time lately ? The last 2 moved through around 10 or 11pm, and this one may do the same. What is up with that ?

haha tell me about it! Being the morning meteorologist and having to go in at 10 o clock at night isn't the greatest.... This is now going to happen three times in 12 days and I can really feel it take a toll on me... /ends whining

Looking at things locally though, the cap won't be AS strong as this past Monday's event, but we still saw some 'gusty' winds. I saw better winds in Florida thunderstorms but with the drought conditions over the past few years, it doesn't take much wind for trees to topple. Just taking things how they are... It looks like the worst of the weather will be west of I-65 and slowly weaken as it treks into northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. That being said, I have a feeling we'll see a few STRONG thunderstorms in the warm sector tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The timing of the storms is going to change even AFTER the storms fire up tomorrow morning in east Mississippi. It's an interesting set-up and we'll have to see what happens.

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Some very rough action going on southeast of Oklahoma City. One cell in particular affecting Atoka, OK looks pretty downright nasty:

Rotating Thunderstorm

Max Reflectivity: 61 dbz

Severe Hail: 100%

Hail: 100%

Max Hail Size: 2.00in

Echo Top: 48,000 ft.

VIL: 74 kg/m2 (Unbelievably high!)

Speed: 25 kts.

Origin of Direction: W (259)

Radar Site: SRX

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Tomorrow and Saturday will be interesting for everyone in the southeast. I live near Hickory, NC, and this could be a very interesting weather event for us. With the upslope showers and thunderstorms, I would not be shocked if some areas receive over 3 inches of rain north and west of I-85. Heavy rain will be the biggest threat here in western NC, I believe. There could be a few severe storms. Tomorrow evening and Saturday morning is definitely going to be fun to forecast here in the lee of the mountains.

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Reading the SPC's Day 2 outlook, I could see them enlarging the MOD risk area to about Atlanta tomorrow morning. Maybe even issuing a HIGH risk for parts of AL and MS. I'll try to check into tomorrow and see how things are looking. Good Luck everybody!

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haha tell me about it! Being the morning meteorologist and having to go in at 10 o clock at night isn't the greatest.... This is now going to happen three times in 12 days and I can really feel it take a toll on me... /ends whining

Looking at things locally though, the cap won't be AS strong as this past Monday's event, but we still saw some 'gusty' winds. I saw better winds in Florida thunderstorms but with the drought conditions over the past few years, it doesn't take much wind for trees to topple. Just taking things how they are... It looks like the worst of the weather will be west of I-65 and slowly weaken as it treks into northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. That being said, I have a feeling we'll see a few STRONG thunderstorms in the warm sector tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The timing of the storms is going to change even AFTER the storms fire up tomorrow morning in east Mississippi. It's an interesting set-up and we'll have to see what happens.

Lol, back in the old days when we actually got major severe weather in the spring, you'd have gone without sleep for days and days :) Me, I'm just hoping for some decent rain this time.

Hey, man, did you ever get to see your first hail? Here's hoping you have! Tony

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Reading the SPC's Day 2 outlook, I could see them enlarging the MOD risk area to about Atlanta tomorrow morning. Maybe even issuing a HIGH risk for parts of AL and MS. I'll try to check into tomorrow and see how things are looking. Good Luck everybody!

My guess is that the Mod risk will stay mostly in Alabama and maybe western GA. It's all about timing though. As far as a High risk being issued, I have my doubts. My guess is storms will start to weaken as they cross into GA.

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