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April 15-16 Severe Weather threat


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Should be a good bit of warming going on currently in the high risk area per the latest vis shots, sun is making appearances here in Greenville. From MHX's 11:15am update...

12Z KMHX SOUNDING INDICATES CAPPING INVERSION 850-825 MB WHICH

WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AREA INTO EARLY AFTN.

FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS INVERSION WILL ERODE BY MID AFTN AS

LOWER LVLS WARM WITH HEATING AND UPR LVLS COOL AS SHRT WV TROF

APPROACHES.

Going to be interesting to see whether or not legitimate discrete development can get going ahead of the front, given the ongoing clearing. In the absence of, the primary threat will be wind compared to strong tornados.

post-382-0-97036600-1302976002.jpg

Update: Mostly clear skies under a warm sun, what a difference 15 min makes, been OVC all morning and early afternoon!

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just a few high clouds in the Sky now, WIND! has increased as well as temps... 23.0 average, gusts up to almost 40......

Dew point at 71; Temp is 75.0 and rising....

Lordy sounds almost like a Tropical storm outside without clouds & rain....

ie: wind is HOWLING! straight from the south..

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

156 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 151 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 30 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF CHERAW...OR ABOUT 13 MILES WEST OF HARTSVILLE...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

CHERAW

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I haven't had my ham gear set up and listening to the Weather Service and local Skywarn net in quite a while, but this one prompted me to bring it out. NWS Raleigh just issued a statement that Greensboro has gotten 1.75" of rain out of this line. Severe Thunderstorm Warning up for Chatham County. Strapping everything down here in the Bull City and looking nervously at some of the big trees in the backyard.

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Look out for you folks living in or near Caswell County ahead of the cell that prompted this:

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

southeastern Caswell County in north central North Carolina

* until 245 PM EDT.

* At 207 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 7 miles

southwest of Jericho... moving northeast at 55 mph.

* Locations impacted include...

Baynes...

Prospect Hill...

Hightowers...

Leasburg...

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VERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

212 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

NCC001-161830-

/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110416T1830Z/

ALAMANCE NC-

212 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN

ALAMANCE COUNTY...

AT 208 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNION RIDGE...OR 7

MILES SOUTHWEST OF JERICHO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

A TORNADO.

OTHER DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... PLEASANT GROVE.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING

SITUATION. DOPPLER RADAR IS STRONGLY INDICATING A TORNADO

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just a few high clouds in the Sky now, WIND! has increased as well as temps... 23.0 average, gusts up to almost 40......

Dew point at 71; Temp is 75.0 and rising....

Lordy sounds almost like a Tropical storm outside without clouds & rain....

ie: wind is HOWLING! straight from the south..

Hello crossthread. I'm getting the same thing over here. bright sunshine and relentless 40mph gusts hammering the trees. Just took a short walk and it felt like a tropical storm was approaching.

With the good timing of this system (for Eastern NC) I think even us coastal folks could get in on the big stuff. Perhaps one of us might even see a bit of hail. We'll see in a few hours...

:sun:

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN VA...CENTRAL/ERN NC...ERN SC. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 150... VALID 161828Z - 162000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 150 CONTINUES. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...SOME WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...CONTINUES OVER WW. LATEST/18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING MESOLOW NEAR ALAMANCE COUNTY ALONG PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...PRECEDED BY SMALL BUT PRONOUNCED AREA OF BACKED FLOW AND PRESSURE FALLS AT RATE OF 5-8 MB PER 2 HOURS. RELATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY INCREASE...ALREADY EXPANSIVE HODOGRAPH SIZE FROM RDU AREA ENEWD AND NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL NC INTO S-CENTRAL VA. RDU VWP SHOWS 500 J/KG OF 0-1 KM AGL SRH...AND 900 J/KG IN 0-3 KM LAYER...WHICH ALREADY IS EXTREME AND LIKELY UNDER-REPRESENTS VALUES NEARER TO THE MESOLOW. 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 300 J/KG IS EVIDENT AS FAR S AS ERN SC. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION...COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION...WILL JUXTAPOSE CORRIDOR OF 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THESE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES IN PRE-STORM SECTOR. ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2011
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