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April 15-16 Severe Weather threat


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If anyone, places such as Greenville, NC or Fayetteville had better be prepared. This front will, by no means, show a very aggressive look to it as the afternoon progresses with severe cells rapidly firing. With such a powerful mid jet and thus strong developing shear throughout, supercells will most likely be spawning. I wouldn't be surprised if a select few of the tornadoes got a bit of an attitude with the way the upper dynamics are behaving, as well as one in particular that may have increased longevity amongst all others. The parameters are still showing some promising signs of some intense action with some indication that any line of storms will definitely provide some very nasty straight line winds (talking +80mph in some cases). Large hail is a definite with these intense winds embedded in any bowing segments/supercells that develop due to expected strong updraft. It's going to be a very interesting day for you folks further east and I hope all goes well.

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The set up yesterday wasa little better over AL/MS ..I would of left it as is. ( high end Moderate) but oh well

here is the text

post-142-0-22354500-1302971644.gif

'

'DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1130 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND FAR

ERN SC...

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC

NC AND

VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE

MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND ERN GA...

...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING

ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC WHERE A HIGH RISK HAS BEEN ADDED...

..CAROLINAS/VA/WV/MID-ATLANTIC/ERN GA

A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS

TODAY AS A WELL-DEFINED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF

THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE JET WILL CREATE STRONG

DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE

STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL

MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE

FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE TODAY ALONG

A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST

AXIS IN THE WRN CAROLINAS AND RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY

THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE

CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO

EARLY THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN THE ERN CAROLINAS AT 21Z

SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000

J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG SUGGESTING THE

THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. 0 TO 3

KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE WILL ALSO

BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT DISCRETE

SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST

FROM RALEIGH NC SSWWD TO NEAR FLORENCE SC AND EAST OF THAT LINE

ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED WHERE THE

CROSSOVER OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET IS MAXIMIZED. A LONG-TRACK

TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA IN ERN

NC AND FAR ERN SC. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND A

LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZES...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP

FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA. 50 KT OF

FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND A FAST EWD MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD

RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH VERY STRONG WIND

GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ACROSS THE

MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE INTENSE CELLS

WITHIN THE LINE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

THE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS

EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE

REGION.

WHILE SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS FAR NORTH

AS NRN VA AND MD...THE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. ACROSS ERN

GA...THIS AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND REMOVED FROM

THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL

REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS ERN GA.

The SPC decided to go high risk. I am sure today will end up being a pretty big event but I doubt there will be as many tornado reports as there was yesterday. A high risk is really rare for the east coast. Also SPC must be more confident on a high risk after all hell broke lose yesterday in MS/AL.

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The SPC decided to go high risk. I am sure today will end up being a pretty big event but I doubt there will be as many tornado reports as there was yesterday. A high risk is really rare for the east coast. Also SPC must be more confident on a high risk after all hell broke lose yesterday in MS/AL.

to be honest I'm only moderately familar with NC/SC outbreaks/set ups so I'm sure the locals know better..this will be a big event for sure but If all hell didn't break loose yesterday they might not of upgraded..anyway it doesn't really matter long track tonadoes are possible

mini cells forming just ahead of the main line....

the one west of Raeford has a decent couplet

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The SPC decided to go high risk. I am sure today will end up being a pretty big event but I doubt there will be as many tornado reports as there was yesterday. A high risk is really rare for the east coast. Also SPC must be more confident on a high risk after all hell broke lose yesterday in MS/AL.

For western and south central AL...OOPS! Supercells like those seen in the plains with well defined hooks are worthy of HIgh risk....especially with the number of supercells and the long track potential....I won't be suprised to see BMX reporting EF3 or EF4's today.

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Man did we luck out here NW of Columbia. Looks like the line is firing up just NE of the city. Had some good gusts of wind and a little rain as the line passed but nothing near severe.Reports of trees down in Newberry county with winds of 44mph. No property damage reported.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

103 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WESTERN KERSHAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 100 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOREST ACRES...OR NEAR COLUMBIA...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE FORT JACKSON...

WOODFIELDS...LUGOFF...FOREST ACRES...DENTSVILLE...CAMDEN AND

ARCADIA LAKES

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

108 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

HOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO OVER BOWMORE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF RAEFORD...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SILVER CITY...RAEFORD...

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Its hard to believe they didn't go high risk yesterday, to think today could be worse is just insane.

I defenitely agree with you to an extent. There should have been a high risk placed yesterday for parts of Mississippi and Alabama. I doubt there will be as many tornado reports as yesterday. The only thing I can think that could be worse today is there could be a number of fatalities and injuries for the Carolinas are not used to having multiple strong/violent tornadoes like the Central US states. There will most likely be multiple EF3 and EF4 tornadoes confirmed from this outbreak. Like Brick said above there could be numerous casualties associated with these tornadoes that could occu today.

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For western and south central AL...OOPS! Supercells like those seen in the plains with well defined hooks are worthy of HIgh risk....especially with the number of supercells and the long track potential....I won't be suprised to see BMX reporting EF3 or EF4's today.

Yeah I corrected myself. I think today there could more casualties than yesterday.

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Just pushed out 17Z Severe Weather Threat across the NC/SC regions. Right now showing Wilmington, NC with the highest instability and strongest chance of Tornadic development. Also showing potential across Raleigh-Durham, Roanoke, Florence, and Columbia areas. Surface CAPE's holding around 1,000 (j/kg), 0-3KM SRH are very high with values around 400-600 m/s2, and 0-1KM EHI are around 2-3. Severe weather analysis is at http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf. City specific forecasts are uploaded also.

usa.jpg

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Few of the SWS's updating the TW's are don't mention TOR on the ground... but to do state "THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM"

thats one of my complaints: local NWS offices are not consistent with their warnings/statements wordings...do they say that for every tornado warning? No matter how it looks like on radar(not that impressive yet) or if its not on the ground?

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Well...this is how it went yesterday in Alabama....would not want this.....cleaning up from one tornado and here comes another.....

The following was copied and pasted from Talkweather from a met in south Al.

This is something you don't like to see in a Tornado Warning (from Choctaw County, AL):

Quote

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. RESIDENTS...MOTORISTS...AND

EMERGENCY PERSONNEL WHO ARE ASSISTING IN THE CLEANUP EFFORTS ACROSS

THE COUNTY FROM PREVIOUSLY TORNADIC STORMS ARE URGED TO TAKE COVER

NOW.

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