Gastonwxman Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 If anyone, places such as Greenville, NC or Fayetteville had better be prepared. This front will, by no means, show a very aggressive look to it as the afternoon progresses with severe cells rapidly firing. With such a powerful mid jet and thus strong developing shear throughout, supercells will most likely be spawning. I wouldn't be surprised if a select few of the tornadoes got a bit of an attitude with the way the upper dynamics are behaving, as well as one in particular that may have increased longevity amongst all others. The parameters are still showing some promising signs of some intense action with some indication that any line of storms will definitely provide some very nasty straight line winds (talking +80mph in some cases). Large hail is a definite with these intense winds embedded in any bowing segments/supercells that develop due to expected strong updraft. It's going to be a very interesting day for you folks further east and I hope all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The set up yesterday wasa little better over AL/MS ..I would of left it as is. ( high end Moderate) but oh well here is the text ' 'DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC... ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC NC AND VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND ERN GA... ...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC WHERE A HIGH RISK HAS BEEN ADDED... ..CAROLINAS/VA/WV/MID-ATLANTIC/ERN GA A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TODAY AS A WELL-DEFINED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE TODAY ALONG A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS IN THE WRN CAROLINAS AND RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN THE ERN CAROLINAS AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG SUGGESTING THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. 0 TO 3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST FROM RALEIGH NC SSWWD TO NEAR FLORENCE SC AND EAST OF THAT LINE ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED WHERE THE CROSSOVER OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET IS MAXIMIZED. A LONG-TRACK TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA IN ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND A LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZES...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA. 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND A FAST EWD MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WITHIN THE LINE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS WELL. THE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS FAR NORTH AS NRN VA AND MD...THE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. ACROSS ERN GA...THIS AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND REMOVED FROM THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS ERN GA. The SPC decided to go high risk. I am sure today will end up being a pretty big event but I doubt there will be as many tornado reports as there was yesterday. A high risk is really rare for the east coast. Also SPC must be more confident on a high risk after all hell broke lose yesterday in MS/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 This is what happened the last time NC was in a high risk for severe weather. This is a really serious situation. http://www.wral.com/weather/video/4832511/#/vid4832511 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Its hard to believe they didn't go high risk yesterday, to think today could be worse is just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The SPC decided to go high risk. I am sure today will end up being a pretty big event but I doubt there will be as many tornado reports as there was yesterday. A high risk is really rare for the east coast. Also SPC must be more confident on a high risk after all hell broke lose yesterday in MS/AL. to be honest I'm only moderately familar with NC/SC outbreaks/set ups so I'm sure the locals know better..this will be a big event for sure but If all hell didn't break loose yesterday they might not of upgraded..anyway it doesn't really matter long track tonadoes are possible mini cells forming just ahead of the main line.... the one west of Raeford has a decent couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The SPC decided to go high risk. I am sure today will end up being a pretty big event but I doubt there will be as many tornado reports as there was yesterday. A high risk is really rare for the east coast. Also SPC must be more confident on a high risk after all hell broke lose yesterday in MS/AL. For western and south central AL...OOPS! Supercells like those seen in the plains with well defined hooks are worthy of HIgh risk....especially with the number of supercells and the long track potential....I won't be suprised to see BMX reporting EF3 or EF4's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBriedis Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Man did we luck out here NW of Columbia. Looks like the line is firing up just NE of the city. Had some good gusts of wind and a little rain as the line passed but nothing near severe.Reports of trees down in Newberry county with winds of 44mph. No property damage reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Anyone have any links to some live news stations covering this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Anyone have any links to some live news stations covering this? There is a live webcast at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/first-warn-weather-stream#utm_campaign=unknown&utm_source=1093808&utm_medium=social Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 103 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN KERSHAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 145 PM EDT * AT 100 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOREST ACRES...OR NEAR COLUMBIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE FORT JACKSON... WOODFIELDS...LUGOFF...FOREST ACRES...DENTSVILLE...CAMDEN AND ARCADIA LAKES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 With some of the most impressive effective shear values I have ever seen, I would guess that the NWS will literally play it safe and TOR warn about every storm. Best move with parameters like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 108 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 145 PM EDT * AT 107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER BOWMORE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF RAEFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SILVER CITY...RAEFORD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 ESRH at 815ms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Funnel cloud: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Its hard to believe they didn't go high risk yesterday, to think today could be worse is just insane. I defenitely agree with you to an extent. There should have been a high risk placed yesterday for parts of Mississippi and Alabama. I doubt there will be as many tornado reports as yesterday. The only thing I can think that could be worse today is there could be a number of fatalities and injuries for the Carolinas are not used to having multiple strong/violent tornadoes like the Central US states. There will most likely be multiple EF3 and EF4 tornadoes confirmed from this outbreak. Like Brick said above there could be numerous casualties associated with these tornadoes that could occu today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 For western and south central AL...OOPS! Supercells like those seen in the plains with well defined hooks are worthy of HIgh risk....especially with the number of supercells and the long track potential....I won't be suprised to see BMX reporting EF3 or EF4's today. Yeah I corrected myself. I think today there could more casualties than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Few of the SWS's updating the TW's are don't mention TOR on the ground... but to do state "THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 HRRR developing some intense cells in a few hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Just pushed out 17Z Severe Weather Threat across the NC/SC regions. Right now showing Wilmington, NC with the highest instability and strongest chance of Tornadic development. Also showing potential across Raleigh-Durham, Roanoke, Florence, and Columbia areas. Surface CAPE's holding around 1,000 (j/kg), 0-3KM SRH are very high with values around 400-600 m/s2, and 0-1KM EHI are around 2-3. Severe weather analysis is at http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf. City specific forecasts are uploaded also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Few of the SWS's updating the TW's are don't mention TOR on the ground... but to do state "THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM" thats one of my complaints: local NWS offices are not consistent with their warnings/statements wordings...do they say that for every tornado warning? No matter how it looks like on radar(not that impressive yet) or if its not on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Tornado warning for Hoke County, funnel spotted heading toward Fort Bragg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Well...this is how it went yesterday in Alabama....would not want this.....cleaning up from one tornado and here comes another..... The following was copied and pasted from Talkweather from a met in south Al. This is something you don't like to see in a Tornado Warning (from Choctaw County, AL): Quote THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. RESIDENTS...MOTORISTS...AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL WHO ARE ASSISTING IN THE CLEANUP EFFORTS ACROSS THE COUNTY FROM PREVIOUSLY TORNADIC STORMS ARE URGED TO TAKE COVER NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Just got a text from Greg Fishel, he is in PA! I hate it for him that he is missing this type of event. They dont happen often around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 the line looks "grungy" looking and the storms out front can't substain themseleves so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Anyone know where Eyewall ended up chasing? Seems a funnel passed just east of Southern Pines earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 cell near Camden SC looking interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Anyone know where Eyewall ended up chasing? Seems a funnel passed just east of Southern Pines earlier. Last I heard they were in Benson playing wait and see, imagine they have not ventured too far from there, although have not heard any further in about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 the line looks "grungy" looking and the storms out front can't substain themseleves so far Some serious rain rates here right now. Some thunder, not much wind. Line about to push on east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Sounding data for KRDU: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 the line looks "grungy" looking and the storms out front can't substain themseleves so far Yep, nothing impressive yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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