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April 15-16 Severe Weather threat


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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

1207 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA

MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTHEASTERN DILLON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA

SOUTHEASTERN ROBESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

WESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 100 PM EDT

* AT 1205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BRITTON

NECK...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

55 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

GALIVANTS FERRY...

GAPWAY...

MULLINS...

GREEN SEA...

CHERRY GROVE...

CLARENDON...

post-2167-0-45149900-1302970382.jpg

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watch discussion

DISCUSSION...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD

OF COLD FRONT...AND THE S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH NC

INTO VA. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS MOIST AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL

SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES

INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-450+

M2/S2 AND ANTICIPATED DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGESTS A HIGH

LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT

TORNADOES.

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HIGH..after yesterday lks like SPC is taking no chances

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 161616Z - 161715Z

AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE IS

FORTHCOMING FOR ERN NC. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG

SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND

LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LENDS

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE

OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

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The set up yesterday wasa little better over AL/MS ..I would of left it as is. ( high end Moderate) but oh well

here is the text

post-142-0-22354500-1302971644.gif

'

'DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1130 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND FAR

ERN SC...

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC

NC AND

VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE

MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND ERN GA...

...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING

ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC WHERE A HIGH RISK HAS BEEN ADDED...

..CAROLINAS/VA/WV/MID-ATLANTIC/ERN GA

A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS

TODAY AS A WELL-DEFINED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF

THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE JET WILL CREATE STRONG

DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE

STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL

MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE

FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE TODAY ALONG

A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST

AXIS IN THE WRN CAROLINAS AND RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY

THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE

CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO

EARLY THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN THE ERN CAROLINAS AT 21Z

SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000

J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG SUGGESTING THE

THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. 0 TO 3

KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE WILL ALSO

BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT DISCRETE

SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST

FROM RALEIGH NC SSWWD TO NEAR FLORENCE SC AND EAST OF THAT LINE

ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED WHERE THE

CROSSOVER OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET IS MAXIMIZED. A LONG-TRACK

TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA IN ERN

NC AND FAR ERN SC. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND A

LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZES...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP

FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA. 50 KT OF

FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND A FAST EWD MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD

RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH VERY STRONG WIND

GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ACROSS THE

MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE INTENSE CELLS

WITHIN THE LINE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

THE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS

EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE

REGION.

WHILE SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS FAR NORTH

AS NRN VA AND MD...THE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. ACROSS ERN

GA...THIS AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND REMOVED FROM

THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL

REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS ERN GA.

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line of storms just passed through here. A ton of heavy rain and gusty winds but no hail and very little lightning. This line is going to mean business further east though. You could see the cloud getting sucked straight up into the storm as it is developing and the winds were swirling. One minute there were blowing E, then a few minutes W and so on.

Stay safe people !

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This is an extremely rare and extremely dangerous event.

Hope everyone stays safe.

Does anyone know how often we get a high risk area and a PDS Tornado Watch in the Carolinas? I honestly don't remember the last one...I know it's rare just trying to get some historical perspective.

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