Upslope\LES Thread.....So the Mountain Folk and LEK's

[powderfreak]

This thing is just getting more organized and is going to absolutely destroy parts of Chittenden County just outside of Burlington. They are already at 10-12" and I'm sure its snowing very hard now.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
838 PM EST MON DEC 6 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.  THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                	SNOWFALL   	OF
                	(INCHES)   MEASUREMENT


VERMONT

...ADDISON COUNTY...
  BRISTOL                3.0   307 PM  12/6   SPOTTER

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
  WALDEN             	5.5   528 PM  12/6   SPOTTER
  STANNARD           	2.7   607 PM  12/6   COCORAHS
  HARDWICK           	1.6   605 PM  12/6   COCORAHS

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
  JERICHO           	12.0   830 PM  12/6   SPOTTER
  NASHVILLE 1 E     	10.4   640 PM  12/6   NWS EMPLOYEE
  MILTON                10.0   739 PM  12/6   NWS EMPLOYEE
  WESTFORD              10.0   642 PM  12/6   NWS EMPLOYEE
  ESSEX JUNCTION     	5.0   523 PM  12/6   NWS EMPLOYEE
  SOUTH BURLINGTON   	4.0   523 PM  12/6   AIRPORT
  COLCHESTER         	0.5   530 PM  12/6   NWS EMPLOYEE

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
  HIGHGATE           	6.5   524 PM  12/6   SPOTTER
  SWANTON                1.8   520 PM  12/6   SPOTTER

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
  CAMBRIDGE         	11.5   835 PM  12/6   SPOTTER
  JOHNSON                7.0   522 PM  12/6   SPOTTER

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
  GREENSBORO         	3.5   607 PM  12/6   SPOTTER
  BROWNINGTON            3.0   524 PM  12/6   SPOTTER

$
MM

[CT Rain]

report in other thread of

11 new inches at 6pm in woodford 2300' in S. VT.

Nice! I wonder how Mt Snow is going to do. They don't upslope great but they should get enough to spill over for some good accumulation?

[cpickett79]

Nice! I wonder how Mt Snow is going to do. They don't upslope great but they should get enough to spill over for some good accumulation?

why don't you take a trip up 91 and then west on 9 to woodford 75 min FTW. manana we will build a weenie monument in your honor

[CT Rain]

why don't you take a trip up 91 and then west on 9 to woodford 75 min FTW. manana we will build a weenie monument in your honor

I'm working lol

[cpickett79]

I'm working lol

didn't you say you were a snow lover

a snow lover would find a way. this could do wonders to get rid of that warmista connotation you have.

[powderfreak]

Absolutely text book upslope event... my storm total is ~18" so far with 13-14" on the ground as of 5am this morning.

I gotta say, we discussed this most of last week and had great lead time on this event. BTV also had incredible lead time with that AFD last week mentioning that we would be "measuring in feet."

This thread has documented the lead up to this event quite nicely.

[adk]

Absolutely text book upslope event... my storm total is ~18" so far with 13-14" on the ground as of 5am this morning.

I gotta say, we discussed this most of last week and had great lead time on this event. BTV also had incredible lead time with that AFD last week mentioning that we would be "measuring in feet."

This thread has documented the lead up to this event quite nicely.

Agreed. Textbook in many ways. Lower level upward motion was really high last night and snowfall rates obviously spiked. Still looks organized and with great Snow/liquid ratios a bunch more is on the way. Great too because come monday when it's pouring rain ( ) we'll look back fondly on this event.

[powderfreak]

Another moderate to significant event could take place this week... GFS runs have been very consistent in another good period of upslope flow and retrograding low pressure systems.

Looks like Monday night and Tuesday will feature a period of enhanced snows behind this current system... then a good retrograding system later Wednesday into Thursday. Then there may even be another one coming around Saturday.

We could be in for another 5-7 day period with high chances of snow in the upslope favored areas. The ski areas should pick up a decent amount of snow throughout this week.

[ENYsnow]

Another moderate to significant event could take place this week... GFS runs have been very consistent in another good period of upslope flow and retrograding low pressure systems.

Looks like Monday night and Tuesday will feature a period of enhanced snows behind this current system... then a good retrograding system later Wednesday into Thursday. Then there may even be another one coming around Saturday.

We could be in for another 5-7 day period with high chances of snow in the upslope favored areas. The ski areas should pick up a decent amount of snow throughout this week.

I'll be in lake placid tuesday through thursday so i'm really hoping they can pick up some snow in that time frame. like you said it looks like wednesday into thursday looks decent with that system retrograding and throwing back some moisture. BTV is thinking there could be a plowable snow so thats always good to hear. i'm sure the northern greens will do much better than the northern dacks with this set up.. next 7 days should be fun for the ski resorts.

[adk]

Another moderate to significant event could take place this week... GFS runs have been very consistent in another good period of upslope flow and retrograding low pressure systems.

Looks like Monday night and Tuesday will feature a period of enhanced snows behind this current system... then a good retrograding system later Wednesday into Thursday. Then there may even be another one coming around Saturday.

We could be in for another 5-7 day period with high chances of snow in the upslope favored areas. The ski areas should pick up a decent amount of snow throughout this week.

LOVE the way things have looked for the 16h-18th. Run to run we see the same moisture, cold temps and low level lift. I think another round of steady and deep uslope snow unfolds in that time period.

with the snow from now until wednesday as the upper low pulls east combined with the end of week event I feel pretty good about what VT and the High peaks will look like for the xmas holiday time.

[adk]

Signal looks a little weaker today overall but really HAMMERS the night of the 15th thru the day on the 16th. Woof.

[powderfreak]

Signal looks a little weaker today overall but really HAMMERS the night of the 15th thru the day on the 16th. Woof.

Yeah I'm not optimistic anymore for 12"+ over a wide area... This event has a 6-12" feel for the ski areas. I love the moisture advection from the NE overriding a low level WNW upslope flow. That's usually where we get the best results. I haven't looked at any soundings yet, but BTV mentioned a large dendritic snow growth region from near the sfc up to 10,000ft. Given that low level lift occurs in that 2K-6K foot region, that bodes well for high ratios.

I am concerned about the mention of a near-ridgeline inversion level... that tends to block spill-over to hear on the eastern side of the mountain.. and it leads to orographic blocking which could displace the snowfall a bit closer to the BTV area.

Sun has come out here at the mountain after 3-5"... you can tell its still snowing on the western side as the clouds are bubbling up over Mansfield and drying out. Very dark still off to the west though.

Chittenden County came out the winner with this event (what else is new on a NW flow?) with even BTV getting 6".

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
BURLINGTON INTL ARP 0.58    40  14  14                      6
HANKSVILLE          0.57    41  10  10                6.6   7
ESSEX JUNCTION      0.76    40  12  14   LIGHT SNOW   7.6   8

Still snowing along the west slopes but sun is out here on the eastern side of Mansfield.

[BxEngine]

Hey guys hope you dont mind me posting this here...didnt know if it should go here or the upstate NY thread.....

just got back from Lake Placid...in town (before the rain Sunday) they had about a foot on the ground....but as soon as you headed east on 86 it turned bare pretty quickly...out by Wilmington itself it was pretty much just spotty snow. Is that completely elevation dependent? does the town itself do ok in upslope events? It just seems sort of flat to its south for them to cash in in the setups with the low to the north like that.

[adk]

Hey guys hope you dont mind me posting this here...didnt know if it should go here or the upstate NY thread.....

just got back from Lake Placid...in town (before the rain Sunday) they had about a foot on the ground....but as soon as you headed east on 86 it turned bare pretty quickly...out by Wilmington itself it was pretty much just spotty snow. Is that completely elevation dependent? does the town itself do ok in upslope events? It just seems sort of flat to its south for them to cash in in the setups with the low to the north like that.

A few thoughts on that.

A) LP is for sure more prone to picking up snow on NW/W flow events than anywhere in the wilmington area. Mt. Van Ho gets the most with LP getting a decent shot. By the time it starts to work down towards wilmington air is sinking and no longer producing anywhere near the amt of snow.

Also wilmington proper and whiteface base are almost 600-800 feet below LP. That makes a big difference in snowfall in upslope events.

By far - in terms of the ADK - the high peaks get the most, with Van. Ho taking the cake as the best reporting station in the adk. WF does best in SW flow events (really unclear exactly why) and when messy lows move into the Conn. river valley.

As to PF's comments regarding the inversion...at what numbers do you get concnered? I'm not sure I see the same thing.

[sager]

Yea it would be great to know "accurately" how much snow Mt. Marcy and the other high peaks measure each year. Hence, the reason why I would love to create an Adirondack Mesonet.... Look at the area within the Adirondack State Park , from Lake Placid south to Gloversville and from Inlet east to Johnsburg (NY obviously) on the NWS Mesonet Observations page http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=8&extents=41.347948,-76.047363,43.77506,-71.488037&density=1 .... Not even one temperature observation within that area and that is some of the highest terrain in NYS. Imagine what we could find out about how this terrain effects local weather within and around the park through data analysis if a mesonet was created in this area.... I love the mountains and the physical challenges they bring on and in a heartbeat if i could get the permits and funding I would hike up and down the area for however long it takes to establish a network because...

"...given the extreme weather (e.g., lightning, wind gusts, Venturi wind effects between ridges, stagnation, cold air pooling, travelling and stationary

waves, up/down drafts, snow/ice, convective clouds and lightning), steep terrain, incomplete environmental information, intricate logistics, greater uncertainties and high risks that the

combatants have to endure. The prediction of flow, turbulence and dispersion of contaminants and obscurants in complex terrain is extremely difficult because of the wide range of physico-4

chemical processes involved covering a broad spectrum of space-time scales. Moreover, many of these processes are of small-scale, less than a few km and on the order of an hour or less; to

name a few, eddy shedding, aerosols and secondary aerosol formation, mountain waves and phase changes. Thus, in the context of mesoscale modeling of mountainous terrain, the

applicability of conventional sub-grid parameterizations is in question whilst the role of sub-grid processes is more crucial than elsewhere. These complexities, confounded by the lack of high

resolution meteorological data, have been the bane of predicting mountain weather." (http://www.nd.edu/~dynamics/ARO.pdf)

Therefore, if a mesonet is created within this area of variable terrain in terms of elevation with the right amount of computing power and trail and error maybe we could forecast better for the area and the area around it that is influenced by the High Peaks in The Adirondack State Park... Correct me if I'm wrong. If not, does anybody have ideas where to look for funding for the equipment and such, because I want to do the manual labor part (hiking the area and setting up stations) if and when possible.

[sager]

Nice Snowfall total map of Northern Vt, Powderfreak... Another textbook, special place that sees plenty of upsloping ever year is Woodford, Vt. Me and my buddy went there during that same upsloping event on Dec. 6 around 7:30pm and we measured 9 inches and down in the valley of Bennington, VT there was only an inch. At the end of that event Woodford, Vt finished with 22 inches, according to Albany's weathernet6 report.

[adk]

High peaks regulations wouldn't allow it. it's wilderness. No WX stations able to be added. DEC interior outpost at lake colden is as close at it gets.

Oddly I support this. Whiteface has summit wx data. That's sorta useful.

[powderfreak]

A few thoughts on that.

A) LP is for sure more prone to picking up snow on NW/W flow events than anywhere in the wilmington area. Mt. Van Ho gets the most with LP getting a decent shot. By the time it starts to work down towards wilmington air is sinking and no longer producing anywhere near the amt of snow.

Also wilmington proper and whiteface base are almost 600-800 feet below LP. That makes a big difference in snowfall in upslope events.

By far - in terms of the ADK - the high peaks get the most, with Van. Ho taking the cake as the best reporting station in the adk. WF does best in SW flow events (really unclear exactly why) and when messy lows move into the Conn. river valley.

As to PF's comments regarding the inversion...at what numbers do you get concnered? I'm not sure I see the same thing.

I honestly haven't looked at much for this upcoming event... I was just stating that BTV mentioned a ridge-top inversion in this morning's AFD (I think it was this morning's). That usually means moisture has trouble spilling over and can cause back-building of the significant snow west towards BTV area. It might have changed by now or it might have been a specific model they were looking at... but again, I haven't had much time to look at any soundings.