2010-2011 SNE snowfall map

[nzucker]

I have terrible coverage in CT so far and also Cape Cod. Phil, how much did you get....and saying you didn't measure is not an option...I want your best estimate if you didn't measure every event. Your best judgement is going to be better than what I get from the horrible coop data down there.

You should ask skierinvermont...I'll try to get him to participate in this as he and his family measured pretty carefully. I believe he had around 50" in Old Lyme CT but you should check that....he lives a bit inland from the coast so doubtlessly did slightly better than GON.

And yes, we all had an excellent winter; the epic stretch from 12/26-2/3 made the dullness of the rest of winter more tolerable. I was reading through the old winter threads tonight, almost brought a tear to my eye. The excitement of tracking storms and the beauty of newfallen snow is gone for the next 7 months...but indications are that Winter 11-12 will be an interesting one, so we can always look forward to that. It's time to move on now, but I keep catching myself looking at albums of the 2/25/10 Snowicane and the historic January 2011 stretch...so many great pictures that show the diversity of storms we've experienced in the last three years, and how deep the snowpack became by February 2nd this year...Upton busted with the 2/2 snowstorm, called for 6-7" here when we only got 2", but it was still nice to have a 25" snowpack (more in the woods at 425' behind my house) capped off with a thick sheet of ice from the 0.5" accretion we had the morning of 2/3. Matt Crepon (H2OTownwx) and I went for a hike here in mid-January, and it was one of the most pure winter landscapes I've seen with the reservoir frozen many inches deep and nearly 18" of snow in some parts of the woods, temperatures in the low 20s with every breath making its own cloud and hot chocolate the only option for post-hiking beverages. What a winter, one for the books and the favorite of my life including the winters I witnessed at Middlebury.

[ORH_wxman]

You should ask skierinvermont...I'll try to get him to participate in this as he and his family measured pretty carefully. I believe he had around 50" in Old Lyme CT but you should check that....he lives a bit inland from the coast so doubtlessly did slightly better than GON.

And yes, we all had an excellent winter; the epic stretch from 12/26-2/3 made the dullness of the rest of winter more tolerable. I was reading through the old winter threads tonight, almost brought a tear to my eye. The excitement of tracking storms and the beauty of newfallen snow is gone for the next 7 months...but indications are that Winter 11-12 will be an interesting one, so we can always look forward to that. It's time to move on now, but I keep catching myself looking at albums of the 2/25/10 Snowicane and the historic January 2011 stretch...so many great pictures that show the diversity of storms we've experienced in the last three years, and how deep the snowpack became by February 2nd this year...Upton busted with the 2/2 snowstorm, called for 6-7" here when we only got 2", but it was still nice to have a 25" snowpack (more in the woods at 425' behind my house) capped off with a thick sheet of ice from the 0.5" accretion we had the morning of 2/3. Matt Crepon (H2OTownwx) and I went for a hike here in mid-January, and it was one of the most pure winter landscapes I've seen with the reservoir frozen many inches deep and nearly 18" of snow in some parts of the woods, temperatures in the low 20s with every breath making its own cloud and hot chocolate the only option for post-hiking beverages. What a winter, one for the books and the favorite of my life including the winters I witnessed at Middlebury.

This winter was definitely amazing here...but I cannot rank it above 1992-1993, 2000-2001, and 2004-2005 for me personally. Its ending was a tad too tame for my liking and the absolute total was lower than all those. But regardless, still a great winter. The April 1st 6.8" made a nice going away present that had been lacking the past 3 winters.

[NorthShoreWx]

This winter was definitely amazing here...but I cannot rank it above 1992-1993, 2000-2001, and 2004-2005 for me personally. Its ending was a tad too tame for my liking and the absolute total was lower than all those. But regardless, still a great winter. The April 1st 6.8" made a nice going away present that had been lacking the past 3 winters.

The ending is also the biggest beef here. Basically, this winter was January. December was good, but not spectacular. For context, Boxing Day was the 14th biggest single snowfall in the last 16 years here. February and March would have been right at home in 2007 or 8 (both bad years here).

Enough said about that. Well ...almost enough. I've had 12"+ snowfalls 14 times in 16 years on LI (plus 3 or 4 more between 11 and 12"). Not sure if anyone on this board will live long enough to see another run like that on LI. So I'm not complainin!

[ORH_wxman]

The ending is also the biggest beef here. Basically, this winter was January. December was good, but not spectacular. For context, Boxing Day was the 14th biggest single snowfall in the last 16 years here. February and March would have been right at home in 2007 or 8 (both bad years here).

Enough said about that. Well ...almost enough. I've had 12"+ snowfalls 14 times in 16 years on LI (plus 3 or 4 more between 11 and 12"). Not sure if anyone on this board will live long enough to see another run like that on LI. So I'm not complainin!

LI has def been the jackpot in the NYC area relative to climo the past 10 years.

[Logan11]

102" here ...near the nw corner of the map..... I spoke to someone that records snowfall about 7 miles west of here and 109" there..... I guess ALB in the valley crapped out in the high 70's or low 80's.

Dobbs Ferry, NY: 69.5"

[ORH_wxman]

This year has put BOS's mean snowfall at 45.0" since 1960.

[Logan11]

Actually 87.2" in KALB...a rare well above normal year for them. The amounts should rise pretty good as you near the NY border with MA and s. VT given the storm tracks earlier in the winter. For instance on Boxing Day, they got 24" along that route 22 corridor and I only got 7", but we made an excellent comeback.

102" here ...near the nw corner of the map..... I spoke to someone that records snowfall about 7 miles west of here and 109" there..... I guess ALB in the valley crapped out in the high 70's or low 80's.

[ORH_wxman]

This year has put BOS's mean snowfall at 45.0" since 1960.

This might be a bit of evidence that they are more favorable now than before and also a product of more revised measuring techniques (but that won't explain all the difference at all), but I'm ignoring the 1950s...but 51 years is still a pretty solid chunk. That's pretty impressive compared to what it was 20 years ago.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Yeah pretty much everyone had a good winter regardless of local screw zones...but I think your area def got a local shaft. I think GON had more snow than your area.

Couldn't be by much though. But yeah...we were in a local min in a couple of the big events this year. We only out performed other areas locally on a few if the smaller events...so not enough to make up the difference.

[nzucker]

The ending is also the biggest beef here. Basically, this winter was January. December was good, but not spectacular. For context, Boxing Day was the 14th biggest single snowfall in the last 16 years here. February and March would have been right at home in 2007 or 8 (both bad years here).

Enough said about that. Well ...almost enough. I've had 12"+ snowfalls 14 times in 16 years on LI (plus 3 or 4 more between 11 and 12"). Not sure if anyone on this board will live long enough to see another run like that on LI. So I'm not complainin!

I really liked December here although we didn't have a ton of snow threats....the snow squalls and howling winds on 12/13 were an excellent start to winter, and the cold was remarkable. NYC finished -4.5F for the month and we had 8 days in Dobbs Ferry with sub-freezing high temperatures, including 4 days with highs in the 20s. This, if my memory serves me correctly, is extremely unusual in December; the average high here on December 1st is around 47F. Even though I only received 13" snowfall from Boxing Day, it was one of the most memorable blizzards with a 65mph wind gust reported in Hastings NY as well as heavy snow falling with a temperature of 17F. The drifting left some areas with bare grass and some with 4-foot mounds, and temperatures remained in the 20s for two days after the storm. With the cold December, Westchester's lakes and ponds were almost all frozen by Christmas, not an ordinary sight....even the Hudson River had some ice floes, although it never got as icy as it was during January 2009 or 2005.

LI has def been the jackpot in the NYC area relative to climo the past 10 years.

Yes, mostly because of 04-05. That winter, Long Island has 70-80" of snow while the northern suburbs here in Westchester had about 50"...Long Island made out very well with the January 2005 blizzard while it was just a moderate MECS for Westchester with around 14" of snow recorded here. Also, the 12/19/09 storm absolutely slammed Central LI; there was a band of 35-40dbz echoes stretching from there to GON, and skierinvermont reported that it was snowing around 4"/hour in Old Lyme, CT. Most of the Hudson Valley was caught in subsidence from that mega-band, although a bit of convergence did seem to develop over the Hudson Valley...we finished with 8" of snow here, not that much but a nice storm with temperatures around 18F and a biting northeast wind. The 04-05 Winter and 12/19 demonstrate how Long Island has managed to do incredibly well despite averaging much less snowfall per season than I do.

Actually 87.2" in KALB...a rare well above normal year for them. The amounts should rise pretty good as you near the NY border with MA and s. VT given the storm tracks earlier in the winter. For instance on Boxing Day, they got 24" along that route 22 corridor and I only got 7", but we made an excellent comeback.

Vermont also did exceedingly well in 1/12, one of the biggest busts from the GFS which showed almost no QPF in the Green Mountain State...a friend of mine from Middlebury told me they had around a foot, and spotter reports for Addison County were in the 10" range I believe. It was a big surprise because the storm really intensified and spread out its banding with the H85 and H7 lows closing off in a great spot in New England...Will had a very educational post about how the mid-levels really allowed the storm to intensity well and hit all of New England.

[ORH_wxman]

Couldn't be by much though. But yeah...we were in a local min in a couple of the big events this year. We only out performed other areas locally on a few if the smaller events...so not enough to make up the difference.

I think GON had near 60"...but I don't have an official number yet from them. Their coop data is notoriously slow. There was obviously a huge a gradient as you went just inland from the south coast...there's one every year, but this year seemed especially sharp.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes, mostly because of 04-05. That winter, Long Island has 70-80" of snow while the northern suburbs here in Westchester had about 50" Long Island made out very well with the January 2005 blizzard while it was just a moderate MECS for Westchester with around 14" of snow recorded here. Also, the 12/19/09 storm absolutely slammed Central LI; there was a band of 35-40dbz echoes stretching from there to GON, and skierinvermont reported that it was snowing around 4"/hour in Old Lyme, CT. Most of the Hudson Valley was caught in subsidence from that mega-band, although a bit of convergence did seem to develop over the Hudson Valley...we finished with 8" of snow here, not that much but a nice storm with temperatures around 18F and a biting northeast wind. The 04-05 Winter and 12/19 demonstrate how Long Island has managed to do incredibly well despite averaging much less snowfall per season than I do.

LI's best spots probably only average about 3" less than Dobbs Ferry...they have some sneaky good areas on the north shore that avg near 33". Dobbs ferry coop is at 270 feet, so they might average an inch less than you. But they avg 36". So its not totally weird to see them cash in on a 10 year period more than your area.

[nzucker]

The ending is also the biggest beef here. Basically, this winter was January. December was good, but not spectacular. For context, Boxing Day was the 14th biggest single snowfall in the last 16 years here. February and March would have been right at home in 2007 or 8 (both bad years here).

The ending of this winter wasn't horrible here because 2/21 was a warning criteria event in Dobbs Ferry with 8" snowfall...we also had the big ice storm on 2/3, and we picked up 1.25" on 3/21 and 2.5" on 3/24...it was definitely a mediocre ending, but not that bad as the late February overrunning event and the impressive cold snap/-NAO in late March redeemed the second half of winter to a certain degree.

LI's best spots probably only average about 3" less than Dobbs Ferry...they have some sneaky good areas on the north shore that avg near 33". Dobbs ferry coop is at 270 feet, so they might average an inch less than you. But they avg 36". So its not totally weird to see them cash in on a 10 year period more than your area.

I thought the highest spots on the North Shore averaged about 30 at best", not 33"....where are you getting that number from?

The central North Shore of LI does pretty well, and definitely receives sound enhancement on Nor'easters, but I just don't imagine they can get as much as Southern Westchester since they always come out with lower totals in SW flow events and marginal storms. One thing that's interesting, however, is they do seem to have more jackpots in bigger Nor'easters. Outside of the 2/25 Snowicane with 26" here, I can think of very few large coastals where Westchester has been the jackpot (maybe March '01 is another exception)....we got relatively screwed in the Millennium storm (NNJ jackpot), PDII (LI jackpot), January 2005 (LI jackpot), February 2006 (Manhattan jackpot), December 2009 (LI jackpot), February 10, 2010 (Central NJ jackpot), Boxing Day (Central NJ jackpot), 1/11 (SW CT jackpot), and 1/27 (Queens/Manhattan jackpot)...it seems weird but I guess when you live farther from the coast, you have to expect a little less from the monster storms.

I still think I may have beaten/tied most of LI in the last ten years....I did way better in Snowicane, 12/19/08, 2/12/08...and a bunch of other SW flow events like 1/28/09 that hit Westchester hard but changed to rain down there.

[ORH_wxman]

I thought the highest spots on the North Shore averaged about 30 at best", not 33"....where are you getting that number from?

The central North Shore of LI does pretty well, and definitely receives sound enhancement on Nor'easters, but I just don't imagine they can get as much as Southern Westchester since they always come out with lower totals in SW flow events and marginal storms. One thing that's interesting, however, is they do seem to have more jackpots in bigger Nor'easters. Outside of the 2/25 Snowicane with 26" here, I can think of very few large coastals where Westchester has been the jackpot (maybe March '01 is another exception)....we got relatively screwed in the Millennium storm (NNJ jackpot), PDII (LI jackpot), January 2005 (LI jackpot), February 2006 (Manhattan jackpot), December 2009 (LI jackpot), February 10, 2010 (Central NJ jackpot), Boxing Day (Central NJ jackpot), 1/11 (SW CT jackpot), and 1/27 (Queens/Manhattan jackpot)...it seems weird but I guess when you live farther from the coast, you have to expect a little less from the monster storms.

I still think I may have beaten/tied most of LI in the last ten years....I did way better in Snowicane, 12/19/08, 2/12/08...and a bunch of other SW flow events like 1/28/09 that hit Westchester hard but changed to rain down there.

Ask William or Northshorewx...they'll probably tell you that a few spots avg near that. 33" might be the extreme high side, but there's easily low 30s in several spots. Cutchogue averaged 32.7" in its time from 1975 and prior. (its not longer in service since then)

I'll even tell you that Dobbs Ferry has always been on the high side for their numbers compared to others near them. I don't think you need to worry about them skimping at all.

[nzucker]

Ask William or Northshorewx...they'll probably tell you that a few spots avg near that. 33" might be the extreme high side, but there's easily low 30s in several spots. Cutchogue averaged 32.7" in its time from 1975 and prior. (its not longer in service since then)

I'll even tell you that Dobbs Ferry has always been on the high side for their numbers compared to others near them. I don't think you need to worry about them skimping at all.

Northshorewx and William have both said to me they think the highest average for LI is around 30"...William used to take measurements at Jayne's Hill, which is the highest point on LI at 401'...during his time of measurements, the average was around 30", but that was during a poor period for snowfall. I could see them averaging 33" but not many people live there....most of the North Shore communities are between sea level and 200' as it's definitely more rugged than the South Shore due to glacial activity but not nearly as hilly as Westchester. I'd guess 30" is a fair estimate for the majority of communities in the Central North Shore, which seems to do well in getting good ocean inflow/sound enhancement in Nor'easters but not too far out where you see excessive maritime influence as you head towards the Hamptons/Twin Forks.

Dobbs Ferry has posted some big numbers in the past, but I do think they undermeasured severely in a couple of events. They only recorded 16.8" in January 1996 blizzard...I was living like 10 minutes from Dobbs at the time, and here is the picture...does it look like only 17"?

They also only measured 16.0" in the PDII event, which seems low given that some places in Westchester had 18" or so. I know they measured 18" in the 2/25 Snowicane, and I came out with 26", but that might have been due to elevation and urban heat island, with snow falling around 33F during most of the day before the low occluded. I feel like downtown receives less from the lack of elevation, but I think the amount of concrete/cars/buses/buildings releases some heat that makes it harder for snow to accumulate. I took several walks during the Snowicane and noticed some stark differences.

[ORH_wxman]

Northshorewx and William have both said to me they think the highest average for LI is around 30"...William used to take measurements at Jayne's Hill, which is the highest point on LI at 401'...during his time of measurements, the average was around 30", but that was during a poor period for snowfall. I could see them averaging 33" but not many people live there....most of the North Shore communities are between sea level and 200' as it's definitely more rugged than the South Shore due to glacial activity but not nearly as hilly as Westchester. I'd guess 30" is a fair estimate for the majority of communities in the Central North Shore, which seems to do well in getting good ocean inflow/sound enhancement in Nor'easters but not too far out where you see excessive maritime influence as you head towards the Hamptons/Twin Forks.

Dobbs Ferry has posted some big numbers in the past, but I do think they undermeasured severely in a couple of events. They only recorded 16.8" in January 1996 blizzard...I was living like 10 minutes from Dobbs at the time, and here is the picture...does it look like only 17"?

They also only measured 16.0" in the PDII event, which seems low given that some places in Westchester had 18" or so. I know they measured 18" in the 2/25 Snowicane, and I came out with 26", but that might have been due to elevation and urban heat island, with snow falling around 33F during most of the day before the low occluded. I feel like downtown receives less from the lack of elevation, but I think the amount of concrete/cars/buses/buildings releases some heat that makes it harder for snow to accumulate. I took several walks during the Snowicane and noticed some stark differences.

Dobbs Ferry has also come in very high in some events like 1960...and several others where they outdid their nearest coops by almost double. I think they cannot be accused of being low on average. They are easily higher than closer coops at similar elevation. A lot of coops are bad at measuring on time, so I'd be more likely to believe Dobbs Ferry coop totals over them, but I won't be going out of my way to say they are low. And I understand the elevation thing...but elevation you are talking about is crap compared to the stuff I deal with...100-200 feet wont make a big difference over the long haul, maybe 1 inch per year. I deal with elevation differences of over 1000 feet every year and that's where you see a huge difference.

[nzucker]

Dobbs Ferry has also come in very high in some events like 1960...and several others where they outdid their nearest coops by almost double. I think they cannot be accused of being low on average. They are easily higher than closer coops at similar elevation. A lot of coops are bad at measuring on time, so I'd be more likely to believe Dobbs Ferry coop totals over them, but I won't be going out of my way to say they are low. And I understand the elevation thing...but elevation you are talking about is crap compared to the stuff I deal with...100-200 feet wont make a big difference over the long haul, maybe 1 inch per year. I deal with elevation differences of over 1000 feet every year and that's where you see a huge difference.

Yeah I don't think they are low in general....they were pretty high in March 1960 and January 1961, especially. But I do think their recent measurements have tailed off in quality; there has been some missing data I've noticed in the last decade or so, and I believe 16" is a gross undermeasurement of Jan 1996 blizzard...I know Yonkers reported over 20" and so did NYC", so I'm not sure why they went so low. Looking at pictures and thinking back to the storm, I believe we had around 2'; it definitely didn't look like anything less than the Snowicane, and it was probably more as the lowest elevations of Westchester near NYC still got 20"+...I also know some station near the Hudson River measured 18" in PDII, so the measurement here looks a bit suspect, although not as terrible as 1996.

I don't think the elevation alone makes a huge difference, but it happens to coincide with urban areas vs. forested areas in this part of NYC metro...all of the downtown of Dobbs Ferry is just slightly over the river, probably at 100' or so; the train station is right on the Hudson and thus very close to sea level. The residential areas away from the center of town in Dobbs Ferry and Hastings tend to be hillier, as there's a slight ridge that runs from Yonkers, through Hastings just west of the Saw Mill, through Dobbs Ferry where I live and then up to Taxter Ridge, another nature preserve like the one behind my house. I think there can be a few inches difference per year in someone who lives in a rural setting at 350' elevation and someone in a crowded downtown at 50'...also some of the hills behind my house are near the 425' contour, so that does create some contrast....and Northern Westchester gets up over 900' which allows them to get far more snow than the coastal plain. As you say, these aren't huge elevation differences, but when you combine them with proximity to the moderating influence of the Hudson River, as well as proximity to developed areas with big apartment buildings/lots of traffic, etc...then you can see a marked change. I always find the SE corner of Westchester near LI Sound gets the least amount of snow, with the highest amounts being in the hills around Yorktown...I believe their co-op has averaged about 41" in the long-term.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I don't think they are low in general....they were pretty high in March 1960 and January 1961, especially. But I do think their recent measurements have tailed off in quality; there has been some missing data I've noticed in the last decade or so, and I believe 16" is a gross undermeasurement of Jan 1996 blizzard...I know Yonkers reported over 20" and so did NYC", so I'm not sure why they went so low. Looking at pictures and thinking back to the storm, I believe we had around 2'; it definitely didn't look like anything less than the Snowicane, and it was probably more as the lowest elevations of Westchester near NYC still got 20"+...I also know some station near the Hudson River measured 18" in PDII, so the measurement here looks a bit suspect, although not as terrible as 1996.

I don't think the elevation alone makes a huge difference, but it happens to coincide with urban areas vs. forested areas in this part of NYC metro...all of the downtown of Dobbs Ferry is just slightly over the river, probably at 100' or so; the train station is right on the Hudson and thus very close to sea level. The residential areas away from the center of town in Dobbs Ferry and Hastings tend to be hillier, as there's a slight ridge that runs from Yonkers, through Hastings just west of the Saw Mill, through Dobbs Ferry where I live and then up to Taxter Ridge, another nature preserve like the one behind my house. I think there can be a few inches difference per year in someone who lives in a rural setting at 350' elevation and someone in a crowded downtown at 50'...also some of the hills behind my house are near the 425' contour, so that does create some contrast....and Northern Westchester gets up over 900' which allows them to get far more snow than the coastal plain. As you say, these aren't huge elevation differences, but when you combine them with proximity to the moderating influence of the Hudson River, as well as proximity to developed areas with big apartment buildings/lots of traffic, etc...then you can see a marked change. I always find the SE corner of Westchester near LI Sound gets the least amount of snow, with the highest amounts being in the hills around Yorktown...I believe their co-op has averaged about 41" in the long-term.

There's def a few inches difference between 50 feet in urban surroundings vs 400 feet in rural surroundings. But the Coop is not anywhere close to 50 feet...its 270 feet. Its got some elevation. The difference between 270 and 400 feet is probably 1 inch per year.

[skierinvermont]

There could be a couple small errors or things missing in here but this should be pretty good. There's also someone just north of me in Salem who probably has around 55".. metagraphica.. he had 53.5" around the end of Feb. Also snowman reported 50.8" in Old Lyme just south ... don't know if you got that yet. Nice little clustering of similar reports around here.

1.5" November storm

~5" Boxing Day (not my measurement)

~4" (norlun)

~4" (the thing after the norlun)

14.5" (1/11)

~1"? yesterday 1/19 (turned to slush before I woke up)

2.25" 1/21

3" 1/25

14" 1/26-27

1" 2/1 (followed by a tenth of ice)

1" 2/21

1" 2/26

1.25" 3/24

so around 53.5"

[Kevin W]

Good work, Will.

66.25"

[ORH_wxman]

Good work, Will.

66.25"

Your snowfall table might be of good help here. If you could link it that would be nice. I'm probably just being lazy on trying to go back and finding your thread, but I have been time challenged recently.

[jconsor]

Upton, Long Island hasn't posted it's March total yet, but I have the total from the Mar 24 event. There was only one other very minor event in March, which produced less than an inch island-wide (Mar 22). Thus Upton's total for 2010-11 was 62" plus or minus a half-inch, and now their 1947-2010 average is 31.7".

Keep in mind that Upton is at only 85 foot elevation, and further east than the spots that are likely the snowiest on LI (somewhere between Muttontown/Laurel Hollow in NE Nassau County and Port Jefferson in central Suffolk County).

Ask William or Northshorewx...they'll probably tell you that a few spots avg near that. 33" might be the extreme high side, but there's easily low 30s in several spots. Cutchogue averaged 32.7" in its time from 1975 and prior. (its not longer in service since then)

I'll even tell you that Dobbs Ferry has always been on the high side for their numbers compared to others near them. I don't think you need to worry about them skimping at all.

[Kevin W]

Your snowfall table might be of good help here. If you could link it that would be nice. I'm probably just being lazy on trying to go back and finding your thread, but I have been time challenged recently.

I put a link to your thread on my page.

I will also put a link in my thread.

[WeatherX]

70.4"

[bmj16725]

62"

[CoastalWx]

68.3" in Hingham.

[Kevin W]

Your snowfall table might be of good help here.

This thread has helped me update my table. I have also added some people from this thread.

[CoastalWx]

Fellow met in Hanover on nw side of town estimates 69". Best he could do, given shift hours.

[NorthShoreWx]

Northshorewx and William have both said to me they think the highest average for LI is around 30"...William used to take measurements at Jayne's Hill, which is the highest point on LI at 401'...during his time of measurements, the average was around 30", but that was during a poor period for snowfall.

Not me. I go with around 32 -33 for the "snowbelt" and William and I have discussed the possibility that the 400 foot location may approach 35"

[nzucker]

Not me. I go with around 32 -33 for the "snowbelt" and William and I have discussed the possibility that the 400 foot location may approach 35"

I thought you said most places on the N Shore are around 30"?

Sure, I can see isolated areas being around 33", but I doubt it's a majority of LI's North Shore.