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Official Texas Early Dec Snowstorm Thread


Sarwx

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The discussion out of SJT would make anyone drool if it verified ...:snowman:

THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEPICTING 1 TO 2

INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH SUBFREEZING

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...INCLUDING 850 TEMPERATURES

BETWEEN 0C AND -8C. THIS WOULD RESULT IN QUITE A WINTER STORM FOR

OUR AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING AS SNOW. IN ADDITION...A

TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION WOULD RESULT IN HIGH

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. WITH ALL

THAT SAID...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT

FORECAST...BUT DID SHOW A TREND OF LOWERING TEMPERATURES ON

TUESDAY AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE

CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE

FORECAST THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...I AM NOT SOLD ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION

JUST YET...AS MODELS HAVE TENDED TO EJECT THESE LOWS ACROSS THE

SOUTHWEST U.S. TOO QUICKLY. REGARDLESS...COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN

BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR

THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

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My AccuWx PPV shows 850 mb temps dropping below freezing sometime between 192 and 198 hours, and while surface temps never quite make freezing, 850 mb temps are sub-freezing between 198 and 204 hours while about a quarter inch liquid equivalent falls. Euro keeps us closer to the 5º isotherm than the 0º isotherm*, but glass half full, the trend is in the right direction from yesterday's 12Z. 6 hour time steps displayed on the AccuWx PPV.

9:30 appointment with an orthopedist. I did something to my left shoulder, not sure how, but it hurts to raise my arm up.

* 5ºC isotherm seems to follow the coast, so my house near FM 1960 and Veterans should be colder than that.

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Still time for things to change, but the Euro is backing off, and a compromise between the GFS and the Euro looks plausible. The ridging between the Pac S/W and the GOA low won't be strong enough to keep the shortwave healthy, juicy and southward enough. Oh well...

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The Canadian is down right nuts with some potential, although way too slow. I'm actually happy to see the Euro loose the Cutoff at this range. There may be some hope left after all. Ice Storm anyone? Updated HPC Prelim Discussion...a big change to the slower Euro Ensemble solution...Hmmm...

UPDATED PRELIM PROGS STARTED OF WITH EARLY PRELIM CONTINUITY DAY

3-4 THEN TAPERED TO A MIX OF 30% CONTINUITY AND 70% ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN BY DAY 7. THE ECMWF MEAN WAS CHOSEN BECAUSE OF OUR PREFERENCE

FOR ITS SLOWER SCENARIO IN BRINGING THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE SWRN

CONUS DAYS 5-6. THIS IS A CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE EARLY PRELIM

WHICH FAVORED THE FASTER GFS MOVEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OFF CA

COMING INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THE GFS. WE PREFER THE SLOWER

ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN MOVEMENT OF THIS SYS INTO THE SWRN STATES

CONSIDERING THE GFS PROGRESSIVE BIAS ON DEEP FULL LATITUDE

TROFS...AND THE THE DEEP UPSTREAM KICKER TROF ALONG 150W IN THE

GULF OF ALASKA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN HINDSIGHT...I THINK

THAT I SHOULD HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION IN THE SW

MORE ON DAYS 4-5 THAN SHOWN IN THE 500MB GRAPHIC.

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This whole thing seems to have gone to hell just as soon as you created this thread.

I can blame someone other than God now.

Ironicly, when I did this last year about this same time... again, totally as a joke... it actually did snow!

Dec. 4th, 2009... earliest snow in Houston ever. I miss it. :(

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NWS Shreveport is considering issuing a Winter Weather Advisory tonight.....since the computers crashed last night, we won't get really detailed discussions until the afternoon ones come out in another hour or so.

image1.gif

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

930 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WILL BE MADE AS ALL THINGS LOOK ON TRACK.

BIG DECISION TODAY WILL BE ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF

THE AREA DUE TO THE MODELS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TRACK OF THE

SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY

HIGHER POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTH AND

EAST AREAS...SEE MAP ON HOMEPAGE FOR AREAS.

WILL HAVE COMPLETE PACKAGE OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

:huh:

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FWD gave it no mention in the morning discussion, but did post this:

image2.gif

In a La Nina, I'm willing to chase flurries in Paris.

should we go back to the storm thread for the neTX flurries tonight? i suggest doing so--event threads are always nice to have for the sake of having records of it.

60/26 here. really dry out. kind of a crummy day.

Right on then. Hold on to your butts because here we go with a massive virgastorm:

post-928-0-98367300-1291755925.jpg

post-928-0-31576700-1291755930.jpg

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

241 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING SW TROF PUSHING SEWD INTO THE TX/OK

PANHANDLES...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND LONG WAVE

TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE A QUICK

SEWD MIGRATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE

PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF N TX BY EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS

INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN...AND

QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG AND N OF A SHERMAN TO EMORY

LINE. AREAS ALONG AND N OF A WACO TO PALESTINE LINE WILL LIKELY SEE A

RAIN AND SNOW MIX AFTER ABOUT 03Z. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN LIQUID. SFC

CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN

TX...ALTHOUGH A 5-6 KFT NEAR SFC WARM LYR WILL MELT ANY FROZEN

PRECIP BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF

INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...

WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES

EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

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Shreveport issues a Winter Weather Advisory...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM UNTIL 6 AM

WEDNESDAY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST

ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA NORTH OF

INTERSTATE 20...

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-112-

080530-

/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0008.101208T0400Z-101208T1200Z/

SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-

COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-

UNION LA-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-CASS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...

PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...

SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...

FARMERVILLE...MONROE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...ATLANTA

319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO 1 INCH...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AS

RAIN BUT COULD MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION WHERE

SNOW IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO

DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...THUS

ENDING THE WEATHER THREAT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE

FREEZING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY LIMITING

ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER...SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREES...GRASSY

AREAS...AND ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING SOME BRIDGES. SOIL TEMPERATURES

ARE STILL VERY WARM THUS ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS IS NOT

EXPECTED.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

312 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

STRATO CU DECK AROUND 5KFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE ACROSS SE TX

THIS AFT. EXPECT MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS

EVENING WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AROUND

MATAGORDA BAY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH AND

INLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WELL

OFFSHORE WHERE 60+ DW PTS WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM

THE COAST TO NW AREAS TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS

INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHWR ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST BY

MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW FORMS IN THE NW GULF. DECIDED TO BUMP

POPS UP FOR TONIGHT CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS. WILL HAVE SOME

CHC POPS CONTINUING NEAR THE COAST WED MORNING...WITH ALL PRECIP

ENDING BY LATE MORNING.

ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LATE TONIGHT LIGHT RAIN MIGHT

BRIEFLY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AS THE SFC WET BULB TEMP IS EXPECTED

TO BE IN THE MID 30S. SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...

SO IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED. MENTIONED THIS

POSSIBILITY FOR HOUSTON AND TRINITY COUNTIES.

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E-mail form Jeff L/HCFCD...

Newest 12Z guidance suggests some potential for light rain to mix with light snow tonight over the far northern counties of SE TX mainly from College Station to Lufkin. Afternoon dewpoints continue to run in the 20’s and 30’s across much of the northern ½ of SE TX and with the onset of rainfall this evening. Surface wet bulb temperatures are running in the mid 30’s over the northern sections of SE TX and once precipitation begins to fall the surface temperature will quickly cool toward the wet bulb temperature due to evaporative effects within the dry low level air mass. While surface temperatures will remain above freezing there is some potential for snow to mix with the rain. Profiles are very marginal for snow to reach the ground and most if not all will melt prior to reaching the surface, although would not be surprised to see a few flakes in the Livingston and Crockett areas late tonight. No accumulation is expected in SE TX although some light accumulation may occur over portions of N and NE TX.

Additionally, 12Z guidance has come in a little more aggressive with coastal surface low formation and rain chances/QPF for tonight into Wednesday AM. Will give the amounts a slight bump into the .25-.50 inch range for locations south of I-10 and possibly as much as .75 of an inch near the coast. Widespread coverage will require high rain chances overnight (60-70%) while amounts will on the low side.

:devilsmiley:

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