Sarwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm starting to drool.... Yesterday's 12z Euro run... Last night's 00z Euro run... American model has yet to acknowledge the snowy goodness that is to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well, look at this. No main thread action this year? Just got a call from Onalaska (Lake Livingston) that sleet is falling this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Oh... and the lovely Canadian model from last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The discussion out of SJT would make anyone drool if it verified ... THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEPICTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...INCLUDING 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 0C AND -8C. THIS WOULD RESULT IN QUITE A WINTER STORM FOR OUR AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING AS SNOW. IN ADDITION...A TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING. WITH ALL THAT SAID...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT DID SHOW A TREND OF LOWERING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT. ALSO...I AM NOT SOLD ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION JUST YET...AS MODELS HAVE TENDED TO EJECT THESE LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TOO QUICKLY. REGARDLESS...COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 My AccuWx PPV shows 850 mb temps dropping below freezing sometime between 192 and 198 hours, and while surface temps never quite make freezing, 850 mb temps are sub-freezing between 198 and 204 hours while about a quarter inch liquid equivalent falls. Euro keeps us closer to the 5º isotherm than the 0º isotherm*, but glass half full, the trend is in the right direction from yesterday's 12Z. 6 hour time steps displayed on the AccuWx PPV. 9:30 appointment with an orthopedist. I did something to my left shoulder, not sure how, but it hurts to raise my arm up. * 5ºC isotherm seems to follow the coast, so my house near FM 1960 and Veterans should be colder than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It appears the GFS took a step in the right direction with the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 It appears the GFS took a step in the right direction with the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm starting to drool.... Troubling. Then again I saw about 10 feet of the white stuff over the last few weeks in Tahoe. So I'm snowed out for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Doesn't snow in Houston mean a hurricane next summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Troubling. Then again I saw about 10 feet of the white stuff over the last few weeks in Tahoe. So I'm snowed out for awhile. Good to see you back. Did you bring this with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Still time for things to change, but the Euro is backing off, and a compromise between the GFS and the Euro looks plausible. The ridging between the Pac S/W and the GOA low won't be strong enough to keep the shortwave healthy, juicy and southward enough. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 So now the European model hates us... but the GFS is showing some hope. Canadian much different now, but still has some potential. Do we dare root for the GFS now?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The Canadian is down right nuts with some potential, although way too slow. I'm actually happy to see the Euro loose the Cutoff at this range. There may be some hope left after all. Ice Storm anyone? Updated HPC Prelim Discussion...a big change to the slower Euro Ensemble solution...Hmmm... UPDATED PRELIM PROGS STARTED OF WITH EARLY PRELIM CONTINUITY DAY 3-4 THEN TAPERED TO A MIX OF 30% CONTINUITY AND 70% ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAY 7. THE ECMWF MEAN WAS CHOSEN BECAUSE OF OUR PREFERENCE FOR ITS SLOWER SCENARIO IN BRINGING THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE SWRN CONUS DAYS 5-6. THIS IS A CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE EARLY PRELIM WHICH FAVORED THE FASTER GFS MOVEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OFF CA COMING INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THE GFS. WE PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN MOVEMENT OF THIS SYS INTO THE SWRN STATES CONSIDERING THE GFS PROGRESSIVE BIAS ON DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROFS...AND THE THE DEEP UPSTREAM KICKER TROF ALONG 150W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN HINDSIGHT...I THINK THAT I SHOULD HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION IN THE SW MORE ON DAYS 4-5 THAN SHOWN IN THE 500MB GRAPHIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Well I give up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This whole thing seems to have gone to hell just as soon as you created this thread. I can blame someone other than God now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 This whole thing seems to have gone to hell just as soon as you created this thread. I can blame someone other than God now. Ironicly, when I did this last year about this same time... again, totally as a joke... it actually did snow! Dec. 4th, 2009... earliest snow in Houston ever. I miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Is this our flizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Today's the day! It can snow at 50º right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Today's the day! It can snow at 50º right? rain and 39F tonight is a la nina texas snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 NWS Shreveport is considering issuing a Winter Weather Advisory tonight.....since the computers crashed last night, we won't get really detailed discussions until the afternoon ones come out in another hour or so. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 930 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010 .DISCUSSION... NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WILL BE MADE AS ALL THINGS LOOK ON TRACK. BIG DECISION TODAY WILL BE ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA DUE TO THE MODELS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTH AND EAST AREAS...SEE MAP ON HOMEPAGE FOR AREAS. WILL HAVE COMPLETE PACKAGE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 FWD gave it no mention in the morning discussion, but did post this: In a La Nina, I'm willing to chase flurries in Paris. should we go back to the storm thread for the neTX flurries tonight? i suggest doing so--event threads are always nice to have for the sake of having records of it. 60/26 here. really dry out. kind of a crummy day. Right on then. Hold on to your butts because here we go with a massive virgastorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 241 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010 .DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING SW TROF PUSHING SEWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE A QUICK SEWD MIGRATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF N TX BY EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN...AND QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG AND N OF A SHERMAN TO EMORY LINE. AREAS ALONG AND N OF A WACO TO PALESTINE LINE WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AFTER ABOUT 03Z. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN LIQUID. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN TX...ALTHOUGH A 5-6 KFT NEAR SFC WARM LYR WILL MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA... WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Shreveport issues a Winter Weather Advisory... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20... ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-112- 080530- /O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0008.101208T0400Z-101208T1200Z/ SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN- UNION LA-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-CASS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE... PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO... SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON... FARMERVILLE...MONROE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...ATLANTA 319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO 1 INCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AS RAIN BUT COULD MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...THUS ENDING THE WEATHER THREAT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER...SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREES...GRASSY AREAS...AND ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING SOME BRIDGES. SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY WARM THUS ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS IS NOT EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 312 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010 .DISCUSSION... STRATO CU DECK AROUND 5KFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE ACROSS SE TX THIS AFT. EXPECT MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AROUND MATAGORDA BAY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH AND INLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE WHERE 60+ DW PTS WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM THE COAST TO NW AREAS TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHWR ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW FORMS IN THE NW GULF. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR TONIGHT CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS. WILL HAVE SOME CHC POPS CONTINUING NEAR THE COAST WED MORNING...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY LATE MORNING. ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LATE TONIGHT LIGHT RAIN MIGHT BRIEFLY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AS THE SFC WET BULB TEMP IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S. SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING... SO IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED. MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY FOR HOUSTON AND TRINITY COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 E-mail form Jeff L/HCFCD... Newest 12Z guidance suggests some potential for light rain to mix with light snow tonight over the far northern counties of SE TX mainly from College Station to Lufkin. Afternoon dewpoints continue to run in the 20’s and 30’s across much of the northern ½ of SE TX and with the onset of rainfall this evening. Surface wet bulb temperatures are running in the mid 30’s over the northern sections of SE TX and once precipitation begins to fall the surface temperature will quickly cool toward the wet bulb temperature due to evaporative effects within the dry low level air mass. While surface temperatures will remain above freezing there is some potential for snow to mix with the rain. Profiles are very marginal for snow to reach the ground and most if not all will melt prior to reaching the surface, although would not be surprised to see a few flakes in the Livingston and Crockett areas late tonight. No accumulation is expected in SE TX although some light accumulation may occur over portions of N and NE TX. Additionally, 12Z guidance has come in a little more aggressive with coastal surface low formation and rain chances/QPF for tonight into Wednesday AM. Will give the amounts a slight bump into the .25-.50 inch range for locations south of I-10 and possibly as much as .75 of an inch near the coast. Widespread coverage will require high rain chances overnight (60-70%) while amounts will on the low side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This winter is so lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 This winter is so lame Can you fit in a suitcase? Heading back to Tahoe soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Can you fit in a suitcase? Heading back to Tahoe soon. 6' 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 6' 4" i'll post pics from home in the tx thread in a week. i'm sure that'll make it better. light snow reported now in woodward, ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.