Summer 2011

[Mikehobbyst]

Just from this spring so far and April pattern, it looks like normalcy has returned with miserable spring weather until May or later. Probably will only have 5-10 90 degree days with most days this summer between 75-80 for the bulk of the summer. Some 60's with rain, some low 80's with thunder. I see a very normal summer this year with no excessive heat like last year that had its mark set already last year at this time. We are good for avoiding a hellish summer and we have sea temps running below average and colder Canada all in our favor for normal temp summer at best this year based on the looks of how we could progress at this point. Comments ?

[Thunderdude]

I want like a summer with more humid days in the 80's and thunderstorms with less 90 degree days but at the same time but at same time I wouldn't want a summer with chilly days rainy days and noreaster's like there was few times in the summer of 2009.

[forkyfork]

sounds like a wishcast... any scientific reasoning?

[SACRUS]

Only thing definite is that nothing is definite in weather, although matching a record year like last year is not easy. The MEI analogs are leaning cooler than normal but include a few years that were warmer to hotter than normal. Lets see how the rest of April and May play out.

[Sundog]

Can you correct the spelling of definite? It's driving me crazy.

[weathermedic]

Last July was brutal. So many days with temps in the 90's even down to the coast. Was also very dry (precip wise). Don't want that to happen again any time soon.

[CooL]

this sounds like a shot in the dark wishcast. Nothing is definite in wx, didnt you find that out this winter? The truth is you hated last year

[Chris L]

well La Nina would help the temps to stay cooler for sure.

[winterwarlock]

wishcast, lol, keep hoping and maybe it will snow in late May...oh how is that prediction of leaf out being delayed until Memorial Day weekend going?

[Cfa]

That doesn't sound normal. A little too on the cool side. I don't even know what to expect but it's not that lol. (no offense or anything). Last time we had a rainy 60-something day in Summer I got sick because I was freezing the whole day, that's not normalcy.

That's a bit too extreme there.

[Thunderdude]

Usually a day in the 60's for highs in the summer is when a rare noreaster in the summer and I hate noreasters in the summer. Leave them for the winter to give us snow. Summer time should be warmth and severe weather.

[Isotherm]

I'm not yet convinced this summer will be a cool one in the East. With the AMO being warm, I'm reluctant to buy into many of the 60s/70s analog years. I haven't done much research, but hope to have my summer outlook out by early may.

[Thunderdude]

I'm not yet convinced this summer will be a cool one in the East. With the AMO being warm, I'm reluctant to buy into many of the 60s/70s analog years. I haven't done much research, but hope to have my summer outlook out by early may.

Too early to tell what kind of summer it will be but I do believe in my opinion it will be a cooler summer than last year. Hopefully not too cool like the summer of 2009, 2000, and 1992. More closer to 1996 and 1976 but probably a bit warmer though. I do hope for a above average year for thunderstorm activity where generally 70's and 80's will dominate summer and few 90 F+ days here and there. Honestly that is kind of like my ideal summer but I think that will be like it is most likely with hopefully a few good severe weather events this summer.

[A-L-E-X]

I want like a summer with more humid days in the 80's and thunderstorms with less 90 degree days but at the same time but at same time I wouldn't want a summer with chilly days rainy days and noreaster's like there was few times in the summer of 2009.

No way.... humidity sucks! I'd rather have dry sunny days in the 90s and 100s with NW to W flow all summer long

[Thunderdude]

No way.... humidity sucks! I'd rather have dry sunny days in the 90s and 100s with NW to W flow all summer long

If there are some days in the 90's then I rather have lower humidity with the dewpoints in the 50's to lower 60's with a W wind and 100's that is way too much. Humidity isn't too pleasant but alot times if there is stalled front to our north that would lead to an active pattern for afternoon thunderstorms which would be hit or miss.

[nzucker]

I'm not yet convinced this summer will be a cool one in the East. With the AMO being warm, I'm reluctant to buy into many of the 60s/70s analog years. I haven't done much research, but hope to have my summer outlook out by early may.

Summers after moderate/strong La Niñas usually have below normal temperatures in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and Upper Midwest. Cool post Niña summers include 1974 and 2000; the one exception is 1955, a very hot summer, when the La Niña redeveloped during the warm season in order to become a record strong cold ENSO for Winter 55-56. 1955 had a huge heat wave in NYC during early August, quite memorable after a warm July.

However, like you, I'm not sure I buy these Niña analogs...with such strong aridity prevailing in the Southern Plains (eastern TX especially, under an exceptional drought) and the Southeast, I could see a pretty big ridge in these areas occasionally breaking off into the Northeast. I was thinking of a less extreme version of 1988 where the main heat starts off and remains in the Plains, but builds towards the Northeast as time goes on, on a more occasional basis. I wouldn't be surprised if June/July are hot with a cooler August, as we saw in 2008...we have similar indices to that year with the -PDO/+AMO/Niña/low solar. I also think the La Niña could redevelop later in the summer and perhaps make the country a bit toastier than expected.

SSTs along the Eastern Seaboard look to be warmer than normal, with exception of those areas right near NYC metro. This might argue for more of a Bermuda High influencing temperatures in the Southeast and Southern Plains. What impresses me is the widespread SST cooling we've seen in the Indonesian Archipelago and extending into the West Pacific near China...The -PDO is still very strong with a pronounced cold pool off California and into the Gulf of Alaska, with a powerful Aleutian high pressure. AMSU Discover shows that global SSTs are steadily dropping, and are lower than every year since 2003 except for 2008, which we're approaching. We're generally looking at a fairly cool globe compared to recent standards, but I don't know if our weather will be mostly dictated by the warm SSTs off the Southeast Coast leading to more of a Bermuda High feedback:

[A-L-E-X]

July 1955 was the record holder for heat until that record was broken by July 1999 which itself was broken by July 2010.... we had a nice 11 year pattern of recurring heat.

[nzucker]

Here is a map of all summers after a moderate/strong Niña, starting with 1955:

Clearly warmer out west and cooler in the East...

[A-L-E-X]

Hey Nate, thanks for that map-- now I have a little project for you Can you test out the 11 year pattern for east coast heat? Im not sure when it began exactly-- but let's start with 1933 and go with 11 year increments-- 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010.... it would be interesting to see what kind of map you'd come up with. If you can, do one for whole summers and then one just for July. Thanks!

[A-L-E-X]

Here is a map of all summers after a moderate/strong Niña, starting with 1955:

Clearly warmer out west and cooler in the East...

Cooler in the east except for a strong punch of warm air for coastal sections.... note coastal NJ, Long Island and coastal NE

[nzucker]

Hey Nate, thanks for that map-- now I have a little project for you Can you test out the 11 year pattern for east coast heat? Im not sure when it began exactly-- but let's start with 1933 and go with 11 year increments-- 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010.... it would be interesting to see what kind of map you'd come up with. If you can, do one for whole summers and then one just for July. Thanks!

Here are the temperature anomalies for those summers, June through August:

July:

Cooler in the east except for a strong punch of warm air for coastal sections.... note coastal NJ, Long Island and coastal NE

Maybe a lack of easterly winds early in the summer, when the sea breeze is expected to lower temps, for the coastal areas.

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks man and holy ****! Looks like more than just the east coast was hot in that 11 year cycle.