nzucker Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I just had well over 2" of rainfall yesterday and today when several bands of elevated T-storms stalled over us for a time. This wet April pattern thus far blows. Too much rain...April feels like it's been cold even though NYC is +1 for the month, definitely has that subjective chilly feeling with all the gray skies and sea breezes. OVC 47.2/47 0.91" total rainfall Hoping for nice days tomorrow and Friday to dry the vegetable garden out, or the dreaded slugs will come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Tomorrow looks beautiful with very little wind and a nw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 latest NAM has 1.25"+ of rain for the city and 1.5"+ west of about Rt. 23. Based on the high res WRF from e-wall, looks like scattered thunderstorms/showers out ahead of a main heavy band of convection. A pretty nice squall line gets going out in PA but more convection develops out ahead of it over WV and the whole thing more or less forms a blob of heavy rain. Philly on south looks to get raked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 12z euro comes in with only .63"of rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 The elevated thunderstorms last night I have to say were cool last night so I wouldn't complain about that. The storms brushed my area so I didn't get the heaviest rain but was good to get some of that thunder and lightning though. Of course I would like to get some nice sunny days in the 60's which will have next week. With April 82 analogy is by far compare to this spring and that year was such rare occurring and I hope I don't see that ever because snow storms/blizzards happen when they should happen in the winter from December through March. You can remove March from that list-- we rarely get big snowstorms like that in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 how does 0z euro look for the storm? decent amount of rain on nam and gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 how does 0z euro look for the storm? decent amount of rain on nam and gfs... I didn't see the EC, but I can tell you that with a 75 kt LLJ in place, PW over 1 inch and good 850 mb theta-e advection, we can expect at least an inch of qpf, maybe more. Looks like it will be a quick mover tho as the LLJ is over the region by later SAT and moves E before midnight on SAT night. SUN should be dry. Convection is possible (elevated) with this front so with that, there could be some enhanced rainfall rates in the very least. The main window is after 18z on SAT thru 4z on SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I didn't see the EC, but I can tell you that with a 75 kt LLJ in place, PW over 1 inch and good 850 mb theta-e advection, we can expect at least an inch of qpf, maybe more. Looks like it will be a quick mover tho as the LLJ is over the region by later SAT and moves E before midnight on SAT night. SUN should be dry. Convection is possible (elevated) with this front so with that, there could be some enhanced rainfall rates in the very least. The main window is after 18z on SAT thru 4z on SUN. cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 06z NAM increases QPF to between 1.50"-2.50" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 0z euro has .80"-.90" for NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 It looks like the best potential for stronger winds mixing down and heavy rains with the chance for some embedded thunder will be Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 SE wind events tend to overperform here, lets see what this one offers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 There is an insane amount of large scale synoptic forcing. Lifting is through the roof at all levels. Wind profile shows major veering through the lower atmosphere... Also, 500 mb heights crash and we are sandwiched between two jet streaks and are in a favorable position with major upper level divergence. We should see some insane rainfall rates with this system if the models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 New WRF has over 2" of rain falling in about 6 hours, especially over northern NJ. That would exceed flash flood guidance big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 New WRF has over 2" of rain falling in about 6 hours, especially over northern NJ. That would exceed flash flood guidance big time. Yes, it is quite impressive. This could have flash flood implications.. it is an awful lot of rain in short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I would say some elevated convection is a pretty good possibility above the inversion layer. K index and total totals are fairly impressive, and although the atmosphere isn't too unstable, the amount of lifting is pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 12Z Euro continues to be well below other guidance. Has only .80" of rain for NYC area. While most other models are 1.25" to as much as 2"+ of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 From Upton, "HAVE GONE WITH A VERY CONSERVATIVE MIXING DOWN OF AROUND 40 PERCENT OF THE 950 WIND. " 40%??? Big bust potential especially after the Tuesday night event over performed. I think they are ridding the inversion train a little to hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 From Upton, "HAVE GONE WITH A VERY CONSERVATIVE MIXING DOWN OF AROUND 40 PERCENT OF THE 950 WIND. " 40%??? Big bust potential especially after the Tuesday night event over performed. I think they are ridding the inversion train a little to hard. Agreed. Look for wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The winds are going to really over perform tonight. I can already tell the NWS is under doing the wind threat. Without any precip/convection winds are already cranking along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The winds are going to really over perform tonight. I can already tell the NWS is under doing the wind threat. Without any precip/convection winds are already cranking along the coast. Well I think the wind advisory will probably do justice for the over all synoptic wind threat. I don't see widespread 40 mph sustained and 58+mph wind gusts outside of convection tonight. And any damaging winds with a low-topped squall line tonight will be covered by severe thunderstorm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 0z euro finally joined guidance and now also has 1.25"-1.50" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Just from looking at the SE thread all yesterday and last night while I was tracking the severe weather outbreak they all said the models did a very poor job in terms of QPF amounts. In some cases, they recieved double the mean forecast. Just something to keep in mind. Whole area is under a flood watch and for good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The wind is already cranking here! Should be an interesting evening of high winds and some coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The wind is already cranking here! Should be an interesting evening of high winds and some coastal flooding. Yeah,it's already gusting to 35 at JFK and 37 at FRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 going to head to the beach this afternoon, the winds should be cranking on the ocean facing shorelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Winds def stronger earlier then thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 High Risk over the Carolinas..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Wow.....and to think they didn't go high risk the last two days is shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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