nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 How does PVD get 7" of snow on the southeast coast of New England, while Boston barely gets an inch? I bet there were some kind of dynamics at play there. It's amazing that PVD got 7" and eastern LI didn't get any accumulation, especially considering the distance between PVD and, let's say, Orient Point can't be more than 20 miles or so? It was a 530dm cut-off low with -8C 850s, very intense for May. Here is the reanalysis 500mb map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Thanks, Nate... I've always wondered with that storm, is there any scenario (perhaps a slightly different storm track?) that could have gotten accumulating snow down to the coast around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Thanks, Nate... I've always wondered with that storm, is there any scenario (perhaps a slightly different storm track?) that could have gotten accumulating snow down to the coast around here. As you can see, the 500 low is too close to the coast...NYC would have had a better chance if the closed 500mb low had been farther offshore, even in the middle of winter that track could be problematic..It would be hard to get accumulations to the coast anyway, though...I've looked through the records for the Dobbs Ferry co-op, available since 1946, and found that latest accumulating snowfall was 4/24/1967...as previously mentioned, there was another rain-->snow event that dropped 4" in NNJ just days later on 4/27/67; Dobbs Ferry recorded a trace I believe. The May 10th storm was two weeks later than these dates when NYC metro got snow, and that makes a huge difference. May 1977 500mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 So a further offshore track probably wouldn't have gotten accumulating snow down here? 1967 was quite the strong second half of winter and early spring for snow.... a combo of Dec and Jan of this past winter and Feb and Mar from 1967 would pretty much be the perfect 4 month snow season for us. UGH WEAK LA NINA BACK END WINTERS LIKE 1967 AND 1996 MAKE ME WONDER HOW GOOD THIS WINTER REALLY COULD HAVE BEEN WITH A WEAK LA NINA! I wonder how much those same areas got on April 19-20, 1983, that was our latest accumulating snow down here with about 2-3" before it changed to rain. That probably would have benefited from a further offshore track too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 So a further offshore track probably wouldn't have gotten accumulating snow down here? I wonder how much those same areas got on April 19-20, 1983, that was our latest accumulating snow down here with about 2-3" before it changed to rain. That probably would have benefited from a further offshore track too. I think BL temperatures on May 10 would have been too much to overcome in LI; LGA mixed with snow at 38F, so even if the low were farther offshore, they'd still be above freezing. Coastal areas even in New England didn't do that well...Logan Airport only had .5" while Boston Common had 5-6", owing to the marine influence warming things up at Logan. With a storm tracking offshore like that, you'd have ENE/NE winds, and that would bring in some warmth from the ocean, with SSTs already around 50F or so probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I think BL temperatures on May 10 would have been too much to overcome in LI; LGA mixed with snow at 38F, so even if the low were farther offshore, they'd still be above freezing. Coastal areas even in New England didn't do that well...Logan Airport only had .5" while Boston Common had 5-6", owing to the marine influence warming things up at Logan. With a storm tracking offshore like that, you'd have ENE/NE winds, and that would bring in some warmth from the ocean, with SSTs already around 50F or so probably. I wonder what the temps at PVD were that 7 inches fell.... it's not often that you get 7" down there and half an inch in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 NWS has lows of upper 30s for JFK Sunday Night with a chance of light rain.... challenging records right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I checked forecasts for here and for Mt Sinai.... they have the north shore of Long Island even colder with temps in the mid 30s with light rain. forecast for here: Sunday Night Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening... then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Mt. Sinai: Sunday Night Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening... then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I'm not sure why NWS OKX is going so warm for Fri night and so cool for Sun night. They must be following the GFS and its ensemble and going against the Euro and its ensemble, which didn't work out too well for this midweek rain storm. The bulk of the fresh Canadian polar air will be out ahead of the system with the strong 1035+ mb high building down from Quebec. Behind the storm it might even get warmer on Mon, as the mean trough remains out in the central and SW US. I don't think any records will be broken, but the best chance (for ISP, Bridgehampton, LGA, and JFK) will be Sat morning. NWS Philadelphia discussion (written by Walt Drag!) has a good handle on these trends: 12Z NAEFS IS NOT COMPLETELY AVAILABLE. CONFIDENCE IMAGERY AS SEEN FOR PHL IN THE HTTP:/MOE.MET.FSU.EDU/CONFIDENCE/PHL.HTML SITE CONFIRMS SUSPICIONS ABOUT USING THE GEFS 2M TEMP FCST DATA FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THESE 2M TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO HIGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND UNKNOWN WHICH WAY TO TREND NEXT MONDAY. FORTUNATELY WE INTEGRATED A BIT OF THE 12Z ECMWF INTO THE SATURDAY FCST TEMPS...BUT PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH! If I had to forecast, I'd go with lows on Fri night in the upper 30s in NYC and low to mid 30s on LI, while for Sun night I'd go with lows in the low 40s. FWIW, records for Sat through Mon. I'm not going to post Central Park's because they're well into the 20s, and almost certainly unreachable in this air mass. JFK: Sat- 35 (1980) Sun- 33 (1980) Mon -35 (2003) LGA: Sat- 35 (1980) Sun - 32 (1980) Mon - 36 (2003) ISP (1984-2010): Sat- 32 (2008) Sun- 30 (2005) Mon- 33 (1990) Brigdehampton, NY (1930-2010): Sat - 28 (1943, 1981, 2005) Sun- 27 (2005) Mon - 28 (1983) EWR: Sat - 26 (1943) Sun - 30 (1980) Mon - 32 (1943) NWS has lows of upper 30s for JFK Sunday Night with a chance of light rain.... challenging records right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 You really don't think that the suburbs will reach the upper 30s after skies clear? Idk. 0z euro now has us in the mid 60's while rain is falling and then on Monday back into the 60's, after the storm. 1"-1.25" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I'm not sure why NWS OKX is going so warm for Fri night and so cool for Sun night. They must be following the GFS and its ensemble and going against the Euro and its ensemble, which didn't work out too well for this midweek rain storm. The bulk of the fresh Canadian polar air will be out ahead of the system with the strong 1035+ mb high building down from Quebec. Behind the storm it might even get warmer on Mon, as the mean trough remains out in the central and SW US. I don't think any records will be broken, but the best chance (for ISP, Bridgehampton, LGA, and JFK) will be Sat morning. NWS Philadelphia discussion (written by Walt Drag!) has a good handle on these trends: 12Z NAEFS IS NOT COMPLETELY AVAILABLE. CONFIDENCE IMAGERY AS SEEN FOR PHL IN THE HTTP:/MOE.MET.FSU.EDU/CONFIDENCE/PHL.HTML SITE CONFIRMS SUSPICIONS ABOUT USING THE GEFS 2M TEMP FCST DATA FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THESE 2M TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO HIGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND UNKNOWN WHICH WAY TO TREND NEXT MONDAY. FORTUNATELY WE INTEGRATED A BIT OF THE 12Z ECMWF INTO THE SATURDAY FCST TEMPS...BUT PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH! If I had to forecast, I'd go with lows on Fri night in the upper 30s in NYC and low to mid 30s on LI, while for Sun night I'd go with lows in the low 40s. FWIW, records for Sat through Mon. I'm not going to post Central Park's because they're well into the 20s, and almost certainly unreachable in this air mass. JFK: Sat- 35 (1980) Sun- 33 (1980) Mon -35 (2003) LGA: Sat- 35 (1980) Sun - 32 (1980) Mon - 36 (2003) ISP (1984-2010): Sat- 32 (2008) Sun- 30 (2005) Mon- 33 (1990) Brigdehampton, NY (1930-2010): Sat - 28 (1943, 1981, 2005) Sun- 27 (2005) Mon - 28 (1983) EWR: Sat - 26 (1943) Sun - 30 (1980) Mon - 32 (1943) yea, they are definitely siding with the GFS.. that's for sure.. big differences in solutions for Friday night. If the Euro is correct, then yea, they would be too warm. It looks like 850 mb temps are about -2C or so... that would definitely support low temps closer to 40 rather than 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I hope you enjoy the weather the next few days. have you given up your landscaping business, why would you want rain everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 12z euro continues with having no 30's after Sunday's cutoff. Has about 1.35" of rain for Saturday night into Sunday. Temps actually get up to almost 70 degrees Sunday afternoon and behind it temps only get down to the upper 40's for Monday morning and then back into the 60's for Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Coastal flooding and high wind threat continues for Sat afternoon through early Sun morning. Euro has a 60-70 kt jet at 850 mb passing over the area Sat night. Also, there are indications that a line of convection will form Sat night due to elevated instability, similar to this morning. This could help transport some of the stronger winds aloft. I have found that events with E to SE winds often overproduce, perhaps because there is a long fetch over the Atlantic that enhances the winds. Finally, tides are astronomically high with the full moon on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Coastal flooding and high wind threat continues for Sat afternoon through early Sun morning. Euro has a 60-70 kt passing over the area Sat night. Also, there are indications that a line of convection will form Sat night due to elevated instability, similar to this morning. This could help transport some of the stronger winds aloft. I have found that events with E to SE winds often overproduce, perhaps because there is a long fetch over the Atlantic that enhances the winds. Finally, tides are astronomically high with the full moon on Sunday. The GFS also has a band of heavy rain, possibly convection moving through, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Coastal flooding and high wind threat continues for Sat afternoon through early Sun morning. Euro has a 60-70 kt passing over the area Sat night. Also, there are indications that a line of convection will form Sat night due to elevated instability, similar to this morning. This could help transport some of the stronger winds aloft. I have found that events with E to SE winds often overproduce, perhaps because there is a long fetch over the Atlantic that enhances the winds. Finally, tides are astronomically high with the full moon on Sunday. Except for the North facing areas out on MTK that got blasted on 12/26 this winter has been a non event erosion and coastal flooding wise. The beach is way bigger going into spring then it has been the past few years. All it takes is one event like the the one above to change all of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Coastal flooding and high wind threat continues for Sat afternoon through early Sun morning. Euro has a 60-70 kt passing over the area Sat night. Also, there are indications that a line of convection will form Sat night due to elevated instability, similar to this morning. This could help transport some of the stronger winds aloft. I have found that events with E to SE winds often overproduce, perhaps because there is a long fetch over the Atlantic that enhances the winds. Finally, tides are astronomically high with the full moon on Sunday. Except for the North facing areas out on MTK that got blasted on 12/26 this winter has been a non event erosion and coastal flooding wise. The beach is way bigger going into spring then it has been the past few years. All it takes is one event like the the one above to change all of that. Yeah,we'll have to watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion this weekend here.This high tide cycle that we are going into is the highest of the year so far. The astronomical tide height without any surge added is around 1/2 a foot below the minor tidal flooding level.The models are showing a very strong high moving off the NE Coast with an area of low pressure cutting to our west.It looks like we should be able to see ESE gales develop on Saturday. The highest tide on Saturday will occur in the early evening here on the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Another miserable weekend on the way, Saturday looks particularly raw with strong ELY winds, rain, and temps near 50 at best. We're certainly getting more than our share of rain in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 the weekend system isn't a cutoff when it's affecting us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 wet Aprils are becoming the norm lately...The average April precipitation from 1870-2009 is 3.72"...The 30 average from 1980-2009 is 4.68"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Yeah,we'll have to watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion this weekend here.This high tide cycle that we are going into is the highest of the year so far. The astronomical tide height without any surge added is around 1/2 a foot below the minor tidal flooding level.The models are showing a very strong high moving off the NE Coast with an area of low pressure cutting to our west.It looks like we should be able to see ESE gales develop on Saturday. The highest tide on Saturday will occur in the early evening here on the South Shore. the easterly fetch begins late friday night and strengthens through the day saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 If you extrapolate the 84hr nam for this storm the enitre area would get well over 2" of rainfall. Cue the flood threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 the weekend system isn't a cutoff when it's affecting us... Does that mean its not going to be the second coming of April 1982? This thread has one of the worst subtitles ever: "So close but so far for a 4/1982 repeat " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Does that mean its not going to be the second coming of April 1982? This thread has one of the worst subtitles ever: "So close but so far for a 4/1982 repeat " maybe he ment 4/26/1982... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 If you extrapolate the 84hr nam for this storm the enitre area would get well over 2" of rainfall. Cue the flood threads noreaster85 has two going already and is lobbying earthlight for his own pinned thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 If you extrapolate the 84hr nam for this storm the enitre area would get well over 2" of rainfall. Cue the flood threads I just had well over 2" of rainfall yesterday and today when several bands of elevated T-storms stalled over us for a time. This wet April pattern thus far blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I don't understand this April 1982 repeat..... That is absolutely nuts. 1982 was probably 1 in 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I don't understand this April 1982 repeat..... That is absolutely nuts. 1982 was probably 1 in 30 years. And it's been.... 29 years since then!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I just had well over 2" of rainfall yesterday and today when several bands of elevated T-storms stalled over us for a time. This wet April pattern thus far blows. The elevated thunderstorms last night I have to say were cool last night so I wouldn't complain about that. The storms brushed my area so I didn't get the heaviest rain but was good to get some of that thunder and lightning though. Of course I would like to get some nice sunny days in the 60's which will have next week. With April 82 analogy is by far compare to this spring and that year was such rare occurring and I hope I don't see that ever because snow storms/blizzards happen when they should happen in the winter from December through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 The elevated thunderstorms last night I have to say were cool last night so I wouldn't complain about that. The storms brushed my area so I didn't get the heaviest rain but was good to get some of that thunder and lightning though. Of course I would like to get some nice sunny days in the 60's which will have next week. With April 82 analogy is by far compare to this spring and that year was such rare occurring and I hope I don't see that ever because snow storms/blizzards happen when they should happen in the winter from December through March. The rain was blinding here... during late evening yesterday and then from around 3:30-5AM this morning. Just torrential, and the lightning was cool to see. We definitely won't be needing rain again for a long while after this winter and now wet spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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