Mikehobbyst Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 With all the extreme cold in SE Canada it would look to be a snowstorm for the northeast, but there must be a missing ingredient keeping the bitter cold from entering the northeast and preventing a snowstorm. Can somebody tell what is ruining the chance with this event. Best april cold in SE Canada in decades for mid April. Looks like a snowstorm set up so much but not a chance in h*ll for it to happen. Please explain the pattern that is making this such a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It's a cut-off low that generally tracks from Midwest into the Ohio Valley and the Lakes. Which put us on the warm side aloft. Not a snowstorm setup for the Northeast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 With all the extreme cold in SE Canada it would look to be a snowstorm for the northeast, but there must be a missing ingredient keeping the bitter cold from entering the northeast and preventing a snowstorm. Can somebody tell what is ruining the chance with this event. Best april cold in SE Canada in decades for mid April. Looks like a snowstorm set up so much but not a chance in h*ll for it to happen. Please explain the pattern that is making this such a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It's a cut-off low that generally tracks from Midwest into the Ohio Valley and the Lakes. Which put us on the warm side aloft. Not a snowstorm setup for the Northeast at all. Agree very different setup and somebody seems to be wishing for snow. Winter is now over and move on but doesn't look a very nice Wednesday shaping up though and in some areas in the highest elevation in upstate NY or NNE I wouldn't rule out a touch of wet snow. No where near our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The Euro has a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The Euro has a snow event I don't know about that...but its a setup that would make your mouth water in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The Euro has a snow event The euro elevated snow event is not for this weekend. Its showing it for middle of next week. Of course, euro is way wrong and way too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Agree very different setup and somebody seems to be wishing for snow. Winter is now over and move on but doesn't look a very nice Wednesday shaping up though and in some areas in the highest elevation in upstate NY or NNE I wouldn't rule out a touch of wet snow. No where near our area. I don't think the cut-off could produce any snow for this area with the surface low being so far west, as well as the fact that the antecedent airmass isn't very cold due to being in the warm sector of a system tracking across the Canadian Prairies...that's what's keeping the cold away from NYC metro. The euro elevated snow event is not for this weekend. Its showing it for middle of next week. Of course, euro is way wrong and way too cold. ECM generally has a warm bias so you have to take it seriously when it shows an anomalously colder solution. Of course, not saying it's going to snow in NYC metro but the -EPO pattern should bring back below normal temperatures to the region. If the huge AK block can displace part of that vortex sitting over Baffin Island/Hudson Bay, then we should have some abnormally chilly air moving south into the region, and that does put a chance of flakes back in the forecast. Euro has 850s around -7C here at 0z on 4/18, so that would be cold enough to support some frozen precipitation. The latest accumulating snow here in recent times was 4/24/1967, and it's snowed but not stuck here as late as 5/10/1977. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Other than the blocking high north of AK, this pattern has little resemblance to April 6-7, 1982. The wavelengths are much longer, and there is a very positive NAO. 1982 had troughs on the West Coast and in the eastern US (more typical short wavelength for April), along with persistent blocking over Greenland. However, it is notable that all guidance has trended much stronger and slower with the eastern Canada trough and confluence zone. This southward trend almost certainly isn't going to be enough for snow or sleet in the NYC area, but it could be as far south as the eastern Catskills and Litchfield Hills, at least at the start of this weekend's event. Out of curiousity, can anyone post the Euro's forecasted surface temps for Monticello, NY (MSV) and Danbury, CT (DXR) for this weekend's event? Thanks. Look at the dramatic changes in the Euro today vs. the Euro run from 2 days: The GGEM has shifted greatly since today's 00z run as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Can somebody tell what is ruining the chance with this event. Best april cold in SE Canada in decades for mid April. Because the weather gods dont want to torture us anymore. Lets keep that cold air in canada, let them suffer. Enjoy what we have now, the days are gettin longer, trees are blossiming, this is the best time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 12z euro has close to 1.50" of rain for Saturday night into Sunday and cooler then normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 12z euro has close to 1.50" of rain for Saturday night into Sunday and cooler then normal temps. Do the suburbs see frost/freezes Sunday night or Monday night? How cold do 850s get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Do the suburbs see frost/freezes Sunday night or Monday night? How cold do 850s get? HPN starts off with 850's of -3 but quickly jumps up to +6. Surface temps are in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 HPN starts off with 850's of -3 but quickly jumps up to +6. Surface temps are in the 40's. Yeah, the storm is going to track too far west to be a snow threat, that's reserved for the Upper Midwest. How cold do Sunday night and Monday night look? 30s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Yeah, the storm is going to track too far west to be a snow threat, that's reserved for the Upper Midwest. How cold do Sunday night and Monday night look? 30s? Nope. Soundings show 50's and then dropping to mid 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Yeah, the storm is going to track too far west to be a snow threat, that's reserved for the Upper Midwest. How cold do Sunday night and Monday night look? 30s? lol youre really hooked on snow The only time we've seen a major snowstorm this late in the season was back in 1875. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Nope. Soundings show 50's and then dropping to mid 40's. I'm surprised it's that warm; the Euro shows 850s around -6C at 0z Monday (Sunday evening)...so I'd expect temperatures to fall into the 30s. I'm definitely thinking the outlying suburbs will see a frost after the next storm system moves through this weekend; 18z GFS has .25" of rainfall and then 850s drop to around -5C at 6z Monday (wee hours of Sunday night). If we clear out, we'll definitely see some frost with the upper levels being that cold. If there's any moisture left behind the cold front, I wouldn't be surprised to see a light rain/snow mix or flurries in some of the higher elevation areas. This cooldown has been signaled for a while with the -EPO, and both HM and Isotherm have talked about the chance for big negative departures and snow. lol youre really hooked on snow The only time we've seen a major snowstorm this late in the season was back in 1875. I'm not hoping for more snow here, garden is already going. The latest accumulating snowfall here was 4/24/1967 with like 0.3" or something....NNJ also got 2-4" on 4/27/1967, that year had a very cold spring after the epic February/March that dropped 60" of snow in Dobbs Ferry. I believe the last time in recent histories flakes were seen here is 5/10/1977 with the big Nor'easter that dropped over 12" in the Berkshires and Catskills. Slide Mountain had over 20" in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 OP..move on already, winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 OP..move on already, winter is over I hope you enjoy the weather the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I hope you enjoy the weather the next few days. lmao you enjoy 50s and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 lmao you enjoy 50s and rain? I think that was the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Nope. Soundings show 50's and then dropping to mid 40's. You really don't think that the suburbs will reach the upper 30s after skies clear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Yes, for our latitude it's very tough to get any snow this time of year. But the further north you go, even along the New England coast, the more possible it becomes. Boston had 2" on 4/27/1993 and 4" on 4/28-29/1987! Worcester had about a foot in the 1987 storm. Also, Providence had 3.5" on 4/28/1916. lol youre really hooked on snow The only time we've seen a major snowstorm this late in the season was back in 1875. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Given the position of the cold high, I think frost is more likely on Fri night ahead of the storm. Behind it, additional energy dropping into the mean trough over the central US will make it difficult for things to cool down much. I'm surprised it's that warm; the Euro shows 850s around -6C at 0z Monday (Sunday evening)...so I'd expect temperatures to fall into the 30s. I'm definitely thinking the outlying suburbs will see a frost after the next storm system moves through this weekend; 18z GFS has .25" of rainfall and then 850s drop to around -5C at 6z Monday (wee hours of Sunday night). If we clear out, we'll definitely see some frost with the upper levels being that cold. If there's any moisture left behind the cold front, I wouldn't be surprised to see a light rain/snow mix or flurries in some of the higher elevation areas. This cooldown has been signaled for a while with the -EPO, and both HM and Isotherm have talked about the chance for big negative departures and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 You really don't think that the suburbs will reach the upper 30s after skies clear? I think the suburbs could see some 30s Thursday night as the skies clear after the cut-off....850s are +4 on the 0z GFS, which is a bit warm for 30s, but some of the better radiational cooling spots may be able to pull it off. Yes, for our latitude it's very tough to get any snow this time of year. But the further north you go, even along the New England coast, the more possible it becomes. Boston had 2" on 4/27/1993 and 4" on 4/28-29/1987! Providence had 3.5" on 4/28/1916. Boston Common saw 6" of snow on 5/10/1977... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I think the suburbs could see some 30s Thursday night as the skies clear after the cut-off....850s are +4 on the 0z GFS, which is a bit warm for 30s, but some of the better radiational cooling spots may be able to pull it off. Boston Common saw 6" of snow on 5/10/1977... Didnt Providence get 7" in 5/1977 and Montauk got 3"? I know NYC got thundersnow but for some reason it didnt accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Didnt Providence get 7" in 5/1977 and Montauk got 3"? I know NYC got thundersnow but for some reason it didnt accumulate. Montauk didn't get anything...PVD had snow though, you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Looks like the Poconos picked up over 8" also. In May 1996, a week before the heat wave (the only one of the year), I remember the Poconos saw accumulating snow the day after severe thunderstorms hit the region.... it was the 12th or 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 LOL - May 9-10, 1977 was impressive, but not that impressive . According to the Kocin map, all sites in northern NJ, NYC and LI had only a trace of snow. The closest accumulation was 2" in northern Westchester County, NY and 1" near Danbury, CT. BOS (Logan Airport) had mostly rain, with 0.5" accumulation. PVD did indeed have 7". LGA had about 10 minutes of light rain and snow showers mixed in and temps of 38F, with thunder right after that. SPECI KLGA 091411Z 26013KT 5SM -SHRASN BKN024 OVC050 A2949 RMK SLPNO SPECI KLGA 091418Z 24008KT 5SM TSRA BKN024 BKN030 OVC050 A2950 RMK TB17 T S VSBY LWR S SLPNO EWR had a similarly very brief period of mixed rain and snow showers: SPECI KEWR 091623Z 36016KT 7SM -SHRASN SCT009 BKN015 BKN070 A2950 RMK SLPNO JFK had brief thundersleet: METAR KJFK 091400Z 28010KT 10SM -TSRAPL SCT/// BKN/// OVC/// 06/00 A//// RMK SLP983 T00560000 Didnt Providence get 7" in 5/1977 and Montauk got 3"? I know NYC got thundersnow but for some reason it didnt accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 How does PVD get 7" of snow on the southeast coast of New England, while Boston barely gets an inch? I bet there were some kind of dynamics at play there. It's amazing that PVD got 7" and eastern LI didn't get any accumulation, especially considering the distance between PVD and, let's say, Orient Point can't be more than 20 miles or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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