earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... HIGHER-LATITUDE VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SWRN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH CNTRL/SRN QUEBEC THIS PERIOD WITH REGION BEING GLANCED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. LATE MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE SUPPORTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AS FAR N AS THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS LIKELY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG WSWLY WIND FIELD ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Some surface based CAPE is finaly starting to build towards our region, not here yet but up quite a bit from an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Convection finaly beginning to get going south and west of State College, multicellular in nature. Probably will be a few warnings going out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Okay. Now you can color me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Here's the simulated VIL...probably producing some small to moderate hail stones on the edge of the elevated instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 the good old essex county split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Okay. Now you can color me excited the next frame will have them eating sh*t as they approach NYC. You're in a decent spot. I could see you getting a some small hail and some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 the next frame will have them eating sh*t as they approach NYC. You're in a decent spot. I could see you getting a some small hail and some wind. dude let it go, that simulated radar has the convection right on the doorstep of NYC at that frame. I think your trolling this just because I started the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 surface based CAPE has arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 dude let it go, that simulated radar has the convection right on the doorstep of NYC at that frame. I think your trolling this just because I started the thread. was I talking to you? NO. Earthlight and I already agree they will diminish significantly as they approach NYC and I already stated everyone will hear some thunder, but anything coming even remotely close to severe will be points west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 was I talking to you? NO. Earthlight and I already agree they will diminish significantly as they approach NYC and I already stated everyone will hear some thunder, but anything coming even remotely close to severe will be points west of the city. you follow just about every one of my posts that you don't agree with a remark such as "impossible" or "never gonna happen". This wouldn't be the first time you had to swallow your own words. We shall see what happens tonight, will be fun to watch it all come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 storms near Stage College now look very strong on radar, I'm suprised no warnings have been issued with them yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It sounds like they are below severe levels, some small hail and wind gusts of 35 mph being reported storms near Stage College now look very strong on radar, I'm suprised no warnings have been issued with them yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The marine layer is about as entrenched as youll ever see it along the coast right now. (55 here 81 in NYC only 20 miles away) Watch the storms die a quick violent death as they approach LI later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 The marine layer is about as entrenched as youll ever see it along the coast right now. (55 here 81 in NYC only 20 miles away) Watch the storms die a quick violent death as they approach LI later. agreed....but then again, it looks to be more of a car hitting a brick wall type sceneario, so NJ, even perhaps the city itself should be in game. Storms are really firing now as they move past State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 agreed....but then again, it looks to be more of a car hitting a brick wall type sceneario, so NJ, even perhaps the city itself should be in game. Storms are really firing now as they move past State College. Your in a completely different air-mass, and no doubt have the needed heat energy for at least a severe level squall line. I see the State College line holding together all the way to NYC only to dissolve right before moving east of Manhattan, Really a pretty normal occurrence this time of year though this is one of the more extreme examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 It took awhile, but we got there west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 UPTON: TONIGHT...KEPT A CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FORECAST W OF THE HUDSON RIVER UNTIL MIDNIGHT WITH WANING INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...ADVANCING SHOWERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN WITH INCREASING STABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Those same storms are looking pretty weak at the moment. agreed....but then again, it looks to be more of a car hitting a brick wall type sceneario, so NJ, even perhaps the city itself should be in game. Storms are really firing now as they move past State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Those same storms are looking pretty weak at the moment. yes, it doesn't appear to be a lack of instability or shear over where the storms currently are...new storms seem to be firiing over western and central PA, perhaps thats the line that is modeled to reach our area after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 could a met please chime in as to why that line in eastern PA weakened so quickly? Instability doesn't appear to be a limiting factor.. Low and mid-level lapse rates look more than ok shear is extremelely good.. moisture is there Is there a cap still in place somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Your in a completely different air-mass, and no doubt have the needed heat energy for at least a severe level squall line. I see the State College line holding together all the way to NYC only to dissolve right before moving east of Manhattan, Really a pretty normal occurrence this time of year though this is one of the more extreme examples. exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 the 12z spc wrf had the initial line fizzling out, then a new MCS develops over central PA and hits NE PA and NW jersey hard and weakens as it heads towards NYC before fizzling out over LI. Nothing special but some thunder would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 First t-storms over Eastern PA weakened, because of lack of lifting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Lifted index doesn't agree....anyway the second line is the one we want apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 storms near Stage College now look very strong on radar, I'm suprised no warnings have been issued with them yet. Where is Stage College?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Where is Stage College?? Half way between mamby pamby land and his house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 that was hours ago...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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