IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The only chance of seeing severe weather happening is South Central NJ including western NJ and possibly Orange County because anywhere near the city and especially east like LI and CT will be in the marine air that would weaken the thunderstorms but wouldn't rule some elevated thunderstorms from the city through the western half of LI. Eastern LI would just those boring rain showers of course. Any threat in South Central and Western NJ and Orange and maybe even Rockland country is strong gusty winds up to severe limits and some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 The only chance of seeing severe weather happening is South Central NJ including western NJ and possibly Orange County because anywhere near the city and especially east like LI and CT will be in the marine air that would weaken the thunderstorms but wouldn't rule some elevated thunderstorms from the city through the western half of LI. Eastern LI would just those boring rain showers of course. Any threat in South Central and Western NJ and Orange and maybe even Rockland country is strong gusty winds up to severe limits and some hail. SPC has us as 5% risk for hail, the city and west at 5% for wind and a 2% risk for tornadoes, with our far western zones in the 5% area. Obviously SPC expects the storms to be packing a punch when they arrive. Lot's of dense fog out there right now, not the typical start to a typical severe weather day for our area. If we manage to get some sun, that would really help things along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 torch on hold untill we can burn this fog off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 What a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 skies appear to be clearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The SREF does have some elevated instability into our area around 00z. If this does come to pass, the chance for an isolated hail report in Western New Jersey is certainly not out of the question, given the surface heating into the upper 70's expected there and the eastward progression of what is likely to be a decaying mcs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The SREF does have some elevated instability into our area around 00z. If this does come to pass, the chance for an isolated hail report in Western New Jersey is certainly not out of the question, given the surface heating into the upper 70's expected there and the eastward progression of what is likely to be a decaying mcs. And that is as far as it will get, far western Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 06z GEFS agrees on decent CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 And that is as far as it will get, far western Jersey. elevated cape can maintain non-boundary layer rooted convection for a while, but i would agree thats the best chance for any reports, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 elevated cape can maintain non-boundary layer rooted convection for a while, but i would agree thats the best chance for any reports, yes. was only commenting on something that would be severe, we probably all hear a little thunder tonight,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 09z SREFs are definitely more enthused in bringing severe potential further to the east along the tongue of elevated instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 latest NAM simulated radars have a narrow band of heavy showers (squall line) moving through tonight. It doesn't look terribly impressive but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 There's actually some pretty good elevated cape through 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The surface cape is like 400-500 j/kg at that time on the SREF mean which is actually rather impressive for 03z in April. That being said, the way this will probably work is a complex that forms during the day back to our west will move east or northeast through the later evening while weakening. If it can sustain itself along the nose of the elevated instability, we certainly can't rule out the potential for some stronger storms...this especially being true over Western NJ. The cutoff should be sharp, too, because of how stable the surface will be east of the city with the marine layer. This isn't August..and you aren't going to sustain convection with some weak elevated instability this time of year. Also, cool to see an area of 80+kts of 0-6km bulk shear as well which streaks across NJ and the Northern Mid-Atlantic by 00-03z. The kinematics are definitely in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 They are actually pretty excited about this in the PA/NY forum. Some of there mets have warned about discrete cells out ahead of the main line taking on super cell charachteristics. I wonder if any of that makes it into NJ. I'm pretty for west and the slight risk line now virtually bisects my county so I probably stand a better chance than most people in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The surface cape is like 400-500 j/kg at that time on the SREF mean which is actually rather impressive for 03z in April. That being said, the way this will probably work is a complex that forms during the day back to our west will move east or northeast through the later evening while weakening. If it can sustain itself along the nose of the elevated instability, we certainly can't rule out the potential for some stronger storms...this especially being true over Western NJ. The cutoff should be sharp, too, because of how stable the surface will be east of the city with the marine layer. This isn't August..and you aren't going to sustain convection with some weak elevated instability this time of year. Also, cool to see an area of 80+kts of 0-6km bulk shear as well which streaks across NJ and the Northern Mid-Atlantic by 00-03z. The kinematics are definitely in play. In June, July, August, this would be prime setup for a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 They are actually pretty excited about this in the PA/NY forum. Some of there mets have warned about discrete cells out ahead of the main line taking on super cell charachteristics. I wonder if any of that makes into NJ. I'm pretty for west and the slight risk line now virtually bisects my county so I probably stand a better chance than most people in this subforum. I would be excited if I lived in Central PA or Upstate NY, too. There's some good kinematic support (as i mentioned earlier with 60+kts of 0-6km bulk shear as well as good wind profiles throughout) juxtaposed with favorable thermodynamics through 00z. That being said...down here...it's more of a toss up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 In June, July, August, this would be prime setup for a tornado watch. There may be one, still, back to our west..the SREF is still flagging the potential for significant tornado ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 In June, July, August, this would be prime setup for a tornado watch. Agreed, its almost too bad this setup will likley be wasted, although temps are above normal for this time of year. Highs could still approach 80 west of the city. As of an hour ago, my dew point was up one degree to 54, decent for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 There may be one, still, back to our west..the SREF is still flagging the potential for significant tornado ingredients. Too bad I live on Li instead of Central PA and Upstate NY that is where the fun will be today. I do hope to get some elevated convention if the warm does go nearby even. Don't expect any severe storms from the city and eastward. On the other hand the GFS puts Islip area in the 62% risk for thunderstorms in general which is pretty good despite the marine layer will be a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 There may be one, still, back to our west..the SREF is still flagging the potential for significant tornado ingredients. I'll say Lancaster manages a warning today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 There may be one, still, back to our west..the SREF is still flagging the potential for significant tornado ingredients. Well, I wasn't commenting for areas "back to our west" lol, I only speak of the immediate NYC metro. That being said, those areas you speak of are prime for tornadic activity today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Well, I wasn't commenting for areas "back to our west" lol, I only speak of the immediate NYC metro. That being said, those areas you speak of are prime for tornadic activity today. This sub forum covers alot of people that could see some good convection though, myself included. NE PA has the best chance with lower probs as you head east. The GSP looks to be the cutoff. Here in Ramsey, the sky has really brightened, with visible patches of blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 This sub forum covers alot of people that could see some good convection though, myself included. NE PA has the best chance with lower probs as you head east. The GSP looks to be the cutoff. Here in Ramsey, the sky has really brightened, with visible patches of blue. you have no shot at tornadic activity today. Back to the west was in reference to Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 you have no shot at tornadic activity today. Back to the west was in reference to Pennsylvania. What is wrong with you? I said good convection. Anyway, SPC does not agree with you, I'll take there word over yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The Weather Channel's Tor:Con index is 3/10 from upstate to Mississippi. It'd be nice to get at least a thunderstorm but watch it all turn into a blob of just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 The Weather Channel's Tor:Con index is 3/10 from upstate to Mississippi. It'd be nice to get at least a thunderstorm but watch it all turn into a blob of just rain. I'm not a big fan of the TWC, but Dr. Forbes does know his stuff. Forecast for Mon Apr 11 east NY - 3 rest of NY - 2 to 3 south VT - 2 to 3 southweest NH - 2 to 3 west and central MA - 2 to 3 west and central CT - 2 to 3 southeast PA - 3 rest of PA - 2 to 3 NJ - 2 to 3 south and east OH - 2 to 3 MD - 3 north DE - 3 north and southwest VA - 2 to 3 WV - 2 to 3 central and east KY - 2 to 3 TN - 2 to 3 north and west AL - 2 to 3 north MS - 2 to 3 south MS - 3 southeast AR - 2 to 3 LA - 2 to 3 extreme east TX - 2 to 3 other areas - 2 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Mt. Holly has now added thunderstorms to my zone forecast along with gusty winds and small hail. I definitly think the trends today so far have been more towards a more significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 A very nice sounding out of Albany this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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