Scuddz Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 at least a forecast finally worked out today, for the most part. ZING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 ZING! not just you... i 'busted' both sat and sun. lows were on target though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0129.html Tornado Watch covers most of the RLX zones... just west of LWX I am predicting no watch for us even later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Outflow from a nearby storm passing just to my NW cooled things down a bit. The storms are mainly heading NE and making very little progress eastward. Intensity seems to be dying down at the moment too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 LWX Belief is that the area west/ the best chance for severe weather is 1st The Highlands counties of west.V. In the late afternoon...extending into central Maryland this evening. There will be a tornados potential through about middle evening in those areas...W/ hodographs showing the preferred "inverted u" shape. West/ wbz at 080 hail will be threat anywhere west/ sig cell growth...as well as strong gusty winds. Unlile last Monday night feel the severe potential will abate as the night wears on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Looks like the TW in WV is going bye bye soon http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0414.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Looks like the TW in WV is going bye bye soon http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0414.html Lack of forcing FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 That earlier outflow and now the showers seemed to have reduced the energy for anything severe to happen in the western half of WV. CRW to the east is still at 86 though. The showers are making little progess east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Jason and I are at the I76/I81 intersection waiting to see what the cells to the SW will do... going to hang around to 6 o'clock and then we will head back home. Not expecting much but since we're up here we might as well just wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Jason and I are at the I76/I81 intersection waiting to see what the cells to the SW will do... going to hang around to 6 o'clock and then we will head back home. Not expecting much but since we're up here we might as well just wait and see what happens. the oil companies thank you for your support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 the oil companies thank you for your support Actually filled up at $3.37/gal. up here. Nice day for a drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Jason and I are at the I76/I81 intersection waiting to see what the cells to the SW will do... going to hang around to 6 o'clock and then we will head back home. Not expecting much but since we're up here we might as well just wait and see what happens. this isnt instilling much confidence in your abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 this isnt instilling much confidence in your abilities. Hah! Well I wasn't that big of a fan of this system to begin with... figured it really wouldn't hurt to try anyway. Jason's about to get himself a geocache! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Hah! Well I wasn't that big of a fan of this system to begin with... figured it really wouldn't hurt to try anyway. Jason's about to get himself a geocache! there is an adult bookstore up there too if you want to get something for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 there is an adult bookstore up there too if you want to get something for yourself I'm on my phone with 3G... I think I'm okay without the book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Yeah we're heading home... was hoping we could get one storm to break through that we could take pictures of, but it just didn't want to happen today. Not disappointed since I knew there was a good chance that this would happen, and we'll still be home at a decent hour. Nice drive, and we found a nice chase area should we come up here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Yeah we're heading home... was hoping we could get one storm to break through that we could take pictures of, but it just didn't want to happen today. Not disappointed since I knew there was a good chance that this would happen, and we'll still be home at a decent hour. Nice drive, and we found a nice chase area should we come up here again. looks like you're being taunted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Mesoscale discussion issued - it has the watch unlikely text in the graphic but watch possible text in the text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Hah, would you look at that. I'd rather be at home since the Sun's down and we're losing our light. Nice sunset! Chilling back at the apt. now, and it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 That upper-level low's going to create some fun in VA today where that dry slot is... can't go chasing today, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 SPC kepted the TOR probs at 2% but it will be matter of timing over eastern NC and VA if storms can mature before leaving the coast the odds may go up i think should see decent amount of instability today with partly sunny skies and colder air moving ahead later storm motion may be NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 From the 1630z update: ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD TO AROUND DELMARVA AREA BY 12Z WED. SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED THE MOISTURE NWD THRU ERN NC INTO SERN VA THIS AM. HOWEVER RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE MID LEVEL COOLING WHEN UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE VEERING WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHUNT DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE... COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SLOWLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. 70+ KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH RATHER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CONFINED IN SPACE AND TIME...WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT OF HAIL IN THE COLD CORE MOVING WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF VA/WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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