nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Yeah, that 18z GFS seems like it shifted back south a bit. While I have doubts it will be this far south and have this much cold air, I think this will be a legit snowstorm for someone in Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa or Wisconsin. The 18z GFS was definitely further south and slower than the 12z GFS, giving more hope to Central/Northern Iowa....I do think the storm will have a lot of cold air relative to the time of year, there's a 552dm ridge over the Bering Strait and this -EPO pattern is creating strong northerly flow across North-Central Canada, bringing some of the frigid air associated with the +NAO vortex into the Plains. If I had to guess, I'd think the SE corner of South Dakota near Sioux Falls might do well, as well as Southern Minnesota like MSP...we'll see if the snow can reach as far south as Madison WI. Here was the 12z, stronger and further north: Here was the 18z, a bit weaker and further south: The storm has a lot of ridging ahead of it so I doubt it can get too far south, but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 fwiw...87hr 21z sref "- the eta members". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 LOL the NAM blows up some sort of nuclear bomb over the central plains. Not buying that solution yet--not even close. But should the NAM have the track and overall angle that the jet streak ejects over the plains--it will have a distinct advantage over the globals bombing the low out with its non-hydro amped physics/parametrization. This is the rare case where the NAM has utility--slow moving deep developing cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 LOL the NAM blows up some sort of nuclear bomb over the central plains. Not buying that solution yet--not even close. But should the NAM have the track and overall angle that the jet streak ejects over the plains--it will have a distinct advantage over the globals bombing the low out with its non-hydro amped physics/parametrization. This is the rare case where the NAM has utility--slow moving deep developing cyclones. Haha, nuclear is about right. That jet config has some similarities to Octobomb on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Well, I think I'll take the chance of receiving more snow over having the low bomb out, unless that gives me a chance at the severe side of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Haha, nuclear is about right. That jet config has some similarities to Octobomb on the NAM. NAM and some earlier bomb runs from the GFS suggest some deep tropofolding potential. Even the weakest scenarios here are impressive and all show strong moist effects in the low levels and pretty significant low static stability through the depth of the atmosphere. We will see if the potential is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Wow..70kt easterly flow at 850mb around FSD at 78hr on the NAM, thats nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 ukie at hr 72...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 ukie at hr 72...fwiw That looks almost identical to the NAM. That said--I am excited to see the Euro. The southern track is needed for the moist latent heat release for this to truly bomb then track N. Euro was too far S though with the upper jet streak becoming detached from the westerlies before it underwent deep cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 GGEM insane with qpf at 84...3"+ in n NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 GGEM insane with qpf at 84...3"+ in n NE What does 90 look like? Thanks if you have it. I like the 500 vort maps too. They look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 What does 90 look like? Thanks if you have it. I like the 500 vort maps too. They look nice. Thanks!...here is 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Thanks!...here is 90 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 GGEM text output for KONL "O'Neil, NE" 4.46 THU 18Z 14-APR 45.99 44.29 4.45 1009.40 93.74 72.39 14.19 0.12 558.12 550.23 FRI 00Z 15-APR 50.60 49.84 5.95 1002.59 97.22 66.28 14.67 0.93 554.94 552.70 FRI 06Z 15-APR 44.99 44.16 2.44 1001.47 96.90 71.58 19.07 1.77 550.52 549.33 FRI 12Z 15-APR 31.67 30.32 -2.21 1004.09 94.69 346.14 26.51 1.09 545.90 542.59 FRI 18Z 15-APR 31.25 28.88 -5.04 1010.94 90.83 347.42 26.46 0.46 546.23 537.41 SAT 00Z 16-APR 30.46 27.64 -6.71 1015.45 89.12 339.87 20.02 0.07 546.64 534.21 SAT 06Z 16-APR 27.62 25.16 -6.16 1018.12 90.33 326.48 14.57 0.02 546.84 532.42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I have both Thursday and Friday off work, if this thing looks likely, i may make a road trip up norh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 I have both Thursday and Friday off work, if this thing looks likely, i may make a road trip up norh if euro pans out then you might as well stay put...LNK qpf is 1.36...rain to snow. Euro also targets O'Neil, NE with 2.66. Hardly anything up this way via euro....0.32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 definatly would save gas, considering its 3.80/gal. just of out Curiosity , how much of the 1.36 is "snow" ( i know, doesnt really matter at this point lol ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 definatly would save gas, considering its 3.80/gal. just of out Curiosity , how much of the 1.36 is "snow" ( i know, doesnt really matter at this point lol ) around .40...maybe a trip to o'neil would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 GFS and NAM worlds apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 This mornings 12Z guidance is absolutely mind boggling. I can't believe what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 The wind potential with this bomb is off the charts. GFS/NAM showing some extreme low level wind fields--and mixing will be aided by both a dry adiabatic layer Fruday during the day and extreme downward forcing on the west side of the low associated with the cold front/tropofold aloft. Some select soundsing show 80 kts to mix down in parts of KS/NE with sustained in the 40+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 This mornings 12Z guidance is absolutely mind boggling. I can't believe what I am seeing. baro, what are your thoughts on terms of snow in your area? euro gives LBF a pounding. LBF euro qpf THU 12Z 14-APR 2.9 0.9 1013 92 82 0.03 559 548 THU 18Z 14-APR 4.6 0.7 1009 91 86 0.09 556 548 FRI 00Z 15-APR 3.0 0.8 1008 97 100 0.23 554 548 FRI 06Z 15-APR 0.5 -2.3 1009 96 100 0.47 552 544 FRI 12Z 15-APR -0.3 -3.4 1011 94 97 0.62 550 541 FRI 18Z 15-APR -2.9 -6.4 1017 90 95 0.32 552 538 SAT 00Z 16-APR -4.4 -8.5 1020 87 73 0.04 553 537 SAT 06Z 16-APR -5.7 -6.7 1021 87 70 0.01 554 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 baro, what are your thoughts on terms of snow in your area? euro gives LBF a pounding. LBF euro qpf THU 12Z 14-APR 2.9 0.9 1013 92 82 0.03 559 548 THU 18Z 14-APR 4.6 0.7 1009 91 86 0.09 556 548 FRI 00Z 15-APR 3.0 0.8 1008 97 100 0.23 554 548 FRI 06Z 15-APR 0.5 -2.3 1009 96 100 0.47 552 544 FRI 12Z 15-APR -0.3 -3.4 1011 94 97 0.62 550 541 FRI 18Z 15-APR -2.9 -6.4 1017 90 95 0.32 552 538 SAT 00Z 16-APR -4.4 -8.5 1020 87 73 0.04 553 537 SAT 06Z 16-APR -5.7 -6.7 1021 87 70 0.01 554 537 QPF wise not sure since the track with these non-linear beasts is bound to change a lot--and a lot of final QPF values will likely be due to convective enhancement and banding. But yeah--I am uber pumped for this event. The winds alone will suggest potential blizzard criteria in wind driven snow. Just an amazing bomb storm. Never seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 is this a cutoff low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 is this a cutoff low? Expected to become vertically stack cutoff low somewhere in NC Kansas, for sure looks like a beast of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 18z rgem wound up at 54...i don't understand why they only extend this to 54 on off hrs but anyway looks like "baro" is in for a whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 18z rgem wound up at 54...i don't understand why they only extend this to 54 on off hrs but anyway looks like "baro" is in for a whopper. Wow. 988? Geez. Normally I would say no way--but with nothing squashing this storm in the northern stream--I see no reason to think the potential isn't higher. Do you have a 500 hpa vort chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Wow. 988? Geez. Normally I would say no way--but with nothing squashing this storm in the northern stream--I see no reason to think the potential isn't higher. Do you have a 500 hpa vort chart? 500 vort...crappy image as i'm still working on the rgem graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 NWS here said possibility of a foot of snow here. Not out of the question even for this time of year here. I also have went to bed when it was raining and woke up to a snowstorm before here even in early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Went from maybe 8" on the GFS to perhaps some flakes on the back side in Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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