wisconsinwx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Ok, I decided to try my mojo. I will try to live up to my promise in telling you that I won't be pissed if we miss out on the snow, but if we do get it I won't complain either. Seeing snow on my birthday is rare. What is really enticing is if Central and Northern Wisconsin gets this storm about 5 days after their tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Looking at the specifics, congrats LaCrosse to Portage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 0z gfs.. LaCrosse gets blasted.. One thing it has been consistent in showing is the storm developing its own cold air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 msp & dlh hammered on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 damn, after hitting the mid 80's down in NE i'm officially out of winter mode. No snow til the end of October for me. It's severe season f the white stuff now. We missed that wedge by about 3 minutes based on our leader really chickening out heading up to mapleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It's 1:43 at it's 73F outside...no cold air-mass please. Truly though, I don't care that much with finals approaching. It could do whatever the hell it wants outside until the end of April. damn, after hitting the mid 80's down in NE i'm officially out of winter mode. No snow til the end of October for me. It's severe season f the white stuff now. We missed that wedge by about 3 minutes based on our leader really chickening out heading up to mapleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 damn, after hitting the mid 80's down in NE i'm officially out of winter mode. No snow til the end of October for me. It's severe season f the white stuff now. We missed that wedge by about 3 minutes based on our leader really chickening out heading up to mapleton. This to the cold, and that sucks that you missed out on the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Ok, I decided to try my mojo. I will try to live up to my promise in telling you that I won't be pissed if we miss out on the snow, but if we do get it I won't complain either. Seeing snow on my birthday is rare. What is really enticing is if Central and Northern Wisconsin gets this storm about 5 days after their tornado outbreak. Things usually end good for us Detroit folks when you create the storm threads, so here's nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 lol Congratz BARO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 to this potential! After Sundays High of 84, I too am in Summer mode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Congratz BARO!! Actually, that looks mostly North of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 damn, after hitting the mid 80's down in NE i'm officially out of winter mode. No snow til the end of October for me. It's severe season f the white stuff now. We missed that wedge by about 3 minutes based on our leader really chickening out heading up to mapleton. 12z ggem says kiss my a*s and take some white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Congratz BARO!! 12z ggem says kiss my a*s and take some white stuff. I am almost snowed out for the year. I either want a monster historic storm or nothing, haha. Right now the probability of the GFS being right with the way the mid level low bombs out perfectly is very small. That said--the way this jet is projected to bomb out once it interacts with the warm and moist low levels in place over the plains is amazing. The height/surface pressure falls are incredible in all the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I am almost snowed out for the year. I either want a monster historic storm or nothing, haha. Right now the probability of the GFS being right with the way the mid level low bombs out perfectly is very small. That said--the way this jet is projected to bomb out once it interacts with the warm and moist low levels in place over the plains is amazing. The height/surface pressure falls are incredible in all the globals. snow cover all melted here now, not even a pile anywhere but the upcoming storm has a good chance to give me 80"+ for the season total...4.5" shy of that as of now so i'm a little excited for one last shot of winter. from MPX THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK REMAINS A REAL PROBLEM AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO COUPLE OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TREND HAS BEEN SHOWN WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MANY DAYS NOW...BUT THE SOLUTION HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND. TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT WITH THE GFS CREATING QUITE THE STORM SOUTH OF HERE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE QUITE COLD AND SNOW WOULD BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE...AND A LOT OF IT AS WELL! ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CLOSES THE SYSTEM OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...KEEPING US DRY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 I am almost snowed out for the year. I either want a monster historic storm or nothing, haha. Right now the probability of the GFS being right with the way the mid level low bombs out perfectly is very small. That said--the way this jet is projected to bomb out once it interacts with the warm and moist low levels in place over the plains is amazing. The height/surface pressure falls are incredible in all the globals. Would an historic storm for April standards be good enough? You'd probably only need about 6 inches to get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Would an historic storm for April standards be good enough? You'd probably only need about 6 inches to get that. I don't know about there but 6 inches would be quite unusual but not history making, for instance April 10th weather history from the DMX office: 1997: A snow storm produced measurable snowfall across all of Iowa on April 9-12 with the heaviest snow falling across far southern Iowa on the 10th. Storm total accumulations included 18.8 inches at Lamoni, 21.0 inches at Centerville, and 22.0 inches at Bloomfield. The heavy, wet snow coated trees and power lines causing widespread damage and utility outages across southern Iowa. Numerous buildings suffered roof collapse from the weight of the snow in southeastern Appanoose and southwestern Davis counties, including a fire station and factory in Centerville. Structural engineers estimated that the weight of the snow on the factory roof was more than 30 pounds per square foot.1973: Possibly the worst April blizzard on record in Iowa pounded the state from April 8-10. Snowfall totals of 20.3 inches at Belle Plaine and 19.2 inches at Dubuque set all-time storm total records at those locations. Total amounts of 16.0 inches were reported at Lansing and New Hampton, while Cedar Rapids received 14.5 inches, Iowa City 14.3 inches, and Des Moines 14.0 inches. At Des Moines 10.3 inches of their total fell just on the 9th, making it the snowiest April day on record at that location. Winds gusting to 65 mph or higher resulted in near zero visibility and blew the snow into drifts as deep as 16 feet closing most roads in the state. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/WxHistory.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 DGEX has another 60" epic, this time for SE MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Even DTX buying into possible frozen precip... DYNAMIC CLOSED UPPER LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL EFFECTIVELY INDUCE STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. RAPIDLY INCREASING LARGER SCALE ASCENT TIED TO STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING UNDER FAVORABLE EXIT REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A COOL/WET DAY UNDER A PREVAILING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. DESPITE THE INCREASING THETA-E...OVERALL STABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT SUPPORT A THUNDER MENTION WITH THIS INITIAL SURGE. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT WILL COME ON SATURDAY AS THE EXPANSIVE AND INCREASINGLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES. THE DEEP CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER AIR DRAINING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO LOWER FREEZING LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSUMING MOISTURE DEPTH IS ADEQUATE BY THIS TIME...A WINDOW EXISTS FOR PTYPE TO TRANSITION TOWARD A MIX/FROZEN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 DGEX has another 60" epic, this time for SE MN The DGEX is normally too bullish on snowfall amounts, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'll be honest, while I'll be slightly jealous of those who experience this big snowstorm that looks likely (assuming I stay south of the heaviest accums) I will be glued to the tv if this kind of snow pans out for ANYONE in the Upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The DGEX is normally too bullish on snowfall amounts, isn't it? The DGEX is just an all around piece of crap. The NAM is terrible at 84 hours, not sure why anyone would want to extend it even farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'm pretty skeptical since it's so far out. It's likely too extreme. I bet this will pan out as a mixed precip event across a broad area, with a 1-2" bullseye of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'm pretty skeptical since it's so far out. It's likely too extreme. I bet this will pan out as a mixed precip event across a broad area, with a 1-2" bullseye of slush. It's really only 3 to 4 days out, although I understand since it's spring, the models will probably have a tougher time predicting these storms than a normal winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It's really only 3 to 4 days out, although I understand since it's spring, the models will probably have a tougher time predicting these storms than a normal winter storm. The GFS def has a cold bias this time of year, I'd add 3° C to the temps across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Mapleton may go from a large tornado to a large snowstorm. Spring is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Mapleton may go from a large tornado to a large snowstorm. Spring is crazy Yep, other cities like LaCrosse and Appleton may do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 The GFS def has a cold bias this time of year, I'd add 3° C to the temps across the board. I don't think the GFS is too out on its own; the Euro and GGEM both show this storm rapidly intensifying and drawing down the cold air. Look at that gorgeous cut-off at H5, going to have a beautiful deformation zone on the backside: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 I don't think the GFS is too out on its own; the Euro and GGEM both show this storm rapidly intensifying and drawing down the cold air. Look at that gorgeous cut-off at H5, going to have a beautiful deformation zone on the backside: Yeah, that 18z GFS seems like it shifted back south a bit. While I have doubts it will be this far south and have this much cold air, I think this will be a legit snowstorm for someone in Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa or Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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