jrips27 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Figured I might as well start this for tomorrow. Slight Risk for MS, AL, TN, and Northwest GA. ...KY/TN/MS/AL AND VICINITY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- ONGOING INVOF THE FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS AR INTO ERN TX EARLY -- SHOULD INCREASE AS THEY SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AND MOVE INTO A WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT VEERED -- THUS LIMITING TO SOME DEGREE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STRONGER WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS STORMS CROSS TN/KY AND MOVE OUT OF MS AND ACROSS AL -- AND EVENTUALLY INTO GA. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Cold front's already getting quite an attitude back west draping from Wisconsin to Texas with some severe cells already popping with only one in particular near the Fort Worth area in which two counties are threatened with a tornado warning. The tornado watches are impressive in coverage as they cover areas leading up to the Great Lakes region within the Newberry State Forest Area. It'll be interesting if new data suggests that the cold front will allow convection to escape east of the Appalachians and cause a few isolated severe cells overnight and into early Tuesday morning for parts of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I am in the slight risk area, but just barely. Is there the possibility of another low developing ahead of this front tomorrow? I read something about that earlier. Similar to last weeks set up in Al over into Ga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 From the looks of what I'm seeing on guidance, all are showing the shortwave trough progressing eastward, stretching down into the Gulf Coast states. Pre-frontal convection seems to be in order for parts of the Southeast, with the convective mode being in the form of QLCS during this morning back west in places like AR and LA. Dynamics seem to be just supportive enough to fire off potential severe cells across MS, AL, TN, and eventually GA with gusty winds being the main threat regarding damage. Daytime heating will ensure more flare up of convection along the cold front as it pushes into the Mid-South region thanks to moderate to near high instability (CAPE values at least +1000). Several outflow boundaries look to eventually set up with some of these storms. The deep layer shear with the initializing boundary will aid in the QLCS convection with bowing segments and of course potential for supercellular development but isolated at best and shouldn't be as large of an issue as the wind damage that accompanies with any of the stronger storms. Any tornadoes that do erupt will likely be due to the aid of strong SW flow aloft and low level Storm Relative Helicity at sufficient values that would indicate increased tornadic threats despite the direcitonal shear not being as impressive at the lower levels. At this point, I don't think large hail will be as big of an issue as it was here across NC but could still get some small-moderate hail with storms containing stronger updraft producing larger sizes. With the predicted timing of the cold front, it appears by the time it's ready to cross the Appalachians, the severe weather would be dissipating but still could get a few rogue ones eastward. Eastern NC/SC might stand a better chance since the front will still be crossing those areas (assuming it slows to a certain degree) by the time Tuesday afternoon gets going. We'll just have to see how it behaves once it crosses over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The slight risk area has moved further east into Ga now. Atlanta is now included in the new slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Shouldn't this be 4/11/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Should be! Maybe I won't sleep through this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 after the severe event that fizzled here the other day, i hope to see at least a decent storm this evening or tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Tornado Watch now covering from central/western TN and northern MS, streching up into western KY and down to southeasern AR. This could extend eastward into parts of AL and maybe GA as well. Moderate severe risk also looks to be in the cards since the setup is now looking more favorable for higher wind speeds and a slightly better risk of tornadic activity. Going to be an interesting day for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Tornado Watch now covering from central/western TN and northern MS, streching up into western KY and down to southeasern AR. This could extend eastward into parts of AL and maybe GA as well. Moderate severe risk also looks to be in the cards since the setup is now looking more favorable for higher wind speeds and a slightly better risk of tornadic activity. Going to be an interesting day for those areas. I'm not too optimistic about the Atlanta area getting good storms. The line will move through pretty late around 10PM-2AM range. There won't be much heating left by then but we shall see. I'd love to see some big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I would rather pass on severe storms, still a lot of trees down in this area and I am sure plenty of weakened ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'm not too optimistic about the Atlanta area getting good storms. The line will move through pretty late around 10PM-2AM range. There won't be much heating left by then but we shall see. I'd love to see some big storms. Likewise in thought. That's why I was saying that maybe GA could get in on something but with the timing the way it is, I'm not feeling the severe love for certain areas down there. However for the folks living further west from GA, the risk is better there since they'll still be tapping into some good instability before sunset. Just depends on how the front behaves once it crosses the eastern sections of the Southeast. It also doesn't look to be as robust as last week's front (at least from what I can tell) by the time the overnight/early morning hour periods arrive. We'll see. I'll be keeping an eye on radar throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Likewise in thought. That's why I was saying that maybe GA could get in on something but with the timing the way it is, I'm not feeling the severe love for certain areas down there. However for the folks living further west from GA, the risk is better there since they'll still be tapping into some good instability before sunset. Just depends on how the front behaves once it crosses the eastern sections of the Southeast. It also doesn't look to be as robust as last week's front (at least from what I can tell) by the time the overnight/early morning hour periods arrive. We'll see. I'll be keeping an eye on radar throughout the day. What time frame are we looking at for this to move in our area? Overnight? Evening? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 What time frame are we looking at for this to move in our area? Overnight? Evening? Thanks During the afternoon and evening hours, the front will push through from MS to near GA and eastern TN. I'm thinking by time we get close to midnight, it will be near the Appalachians and traverse through GA and the Carolinas after midnight. The speed can differ though since cold fronts can be slowed by mountainous areas so there's that to consider as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 During the afternoon and evening hours, the front will push through from MS to near GA and eastern TN. I'm thinking by time we get close to midnight, it will be near the Appalachians and traverse through GA and the Carolinas after midnight. The speed can differ though since cold fronts can be slowed by mountainous areas so there's that to consider as well. I am still drained from Saturday nights event, I know here in Pineville it is very humid feeling. And the winds are picking up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It shows the line moving into the metro Atlanta area around 10-11pm. Our temps today will get into the low-mid 80's here, so by 10pm it will still be in the low 70's more than likely as it has been the past few nights. SPC has my area in the 30% for significant wind. We are already under a wind adv. right now. My biggest concern for us personally are more trees coming down, more so than the tornado threat. We had 6 deaths in the state last week from falling trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Yes, this will be earlier for us here in Atlanta than the last system. Right now, it does appear weaker than the last storm system, at least at this point. I'm looking at my GRL3 radar from Columbus MS and not much to look at. There are several cells hitting about 33k ft in height but that's it. Only a couple of storm reports so far: http://www.daculaweather.com/spc_storm_reports.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Yes, this will be earlier for us here in Atlanta than the last system. Right now, it does appear weaker than the last storm system, at least at this point. I'm looking at my GRL3 radar from Columbus MS and not much to look at. There are several cells hitting about 33k ft in height but that's it. Only a couple of storm reports so far: http://www.daculawea...orm_reports.php earlier? It looks to be moving very slowly and I really see it coming in around midnight or later which would be after the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It's been moving slowly but expect it to pick up a little more speed. There were actually three fronts with this system earlier, several have already merged and it appears to be moving a little quicker than before. I don't know, we'll see how things progress as the afternoon goes on. It could be later. I HATE to sleep through this stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Interesting. If anyone's been looking at the mesoanalysis page, you can see a weak surface low develop along the cold front in response to the vorticity advection causing the decrease in pressure at the surface. Could aid in small scale increased tornadic threats for areas affected due to the backing of the winds. Fortunately, since it's weak (as it appears now) this won't become any more of a larger issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Not at all impressed by the line right now... Fairly weak and broken in most parts Edit at 6:15--- Starting to pick up a little intensity wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE METRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE METRO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT * AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOREST HILLS...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... FOREST HILLS...BELLE MEADE AND BRENTWOOD AROUND 515 PM CDT. OAK HILL AROUND 520 PM CDT. LP FIELD AND NASHVILLE AROUND 525 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 About time the front showed some signs of attitude. Besides the super cell that developed in the Nashville area, take a look at the line of convection that's been developing further south from Decatur, AL to McComb, MS. It's really got a mean look to it and has already prompted some severe thunderstorm warnings. Birmingham looks to be next in line as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Tornado Warning WNW of Birmingham... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 539 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FAYETTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JASPER...CORDOVA...BANKSTON...BERRY...BOLEY SPRINGS...OAKMAN... PARRISH...GORGAS...GORGAS STEAM PLANT AND FOWLERS CROSSROADS. THIS INCLUDES... US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 61 THROUGH 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 You can really see the line starting to blossom on visible satellite. A toasty 80oF here with a dewpoint of 60o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Live coverage of the storm in the Tuscaloosa area be viewed here: http://ftpcontent.wo...streamchat.html EDIT- If you're just now tuning in, tornado warning for Bibb, Greene, Tuscaloosa, Blount, and Hale counties. Will add that the severe cell north of Gardendale, AL has hail reported at 2.50" max. Very dangerous situation breaking out down there. BMX had better be on guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Reports of 40-60 mph wind gusts with the line in Alabama. About to give my sister a call and tell her to watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Bursting with action over in the Birmingham area. Tornado Warning for the west side of the city. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 653 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 647 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF BROOKWOOD...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HUEYTOWN...BESSEMER...FAIRFIELD...OAK GROVE...NORTH JOHNS...ALABAMA ADVENTURE...SYLVAN SPRINGS...MAYTOWN...BRIGHTON AND MULGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Birmingham is such a severe storm magnet. I remember frequently being jealous of their storms when I lived in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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