Allsnow Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Euro and 18z nam now have a inch or more of rain for wed-thursday.........Gfs finally caught on this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 jconsor FTW, NWS and the GFS FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 jconsor FTW, NWS and the GFS FTL Yeah Jconsor was all over it...Upton stated in there afd that they tend to side with the euro for mid-week event...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 So much for our stretch of top 10 days this week, was too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 18z gfs has over 1.25 qpf for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Welcome to backdoor/cutoff season for the NYC/New England area. This April certainly won't be like last April, that's for sure. I remember it breaking past 90 in NYC last April. Tomorrow seems like our one chance to get some warm readings for much of the area, but east of NYC and into CT as well the southerly flow and clouds will keep it dreary. Tuesday might be warmer there than Monday on west winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Another late week cutoff. There is usually a 4"+ rainstorm in March or April for the NYC area or northeastern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 cue Noreaster85 with a flood thread....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 cue Noreaster85 with a flood thread....... Evacuations are beginning this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 i wonder if this cutoff low would be a snowstorm if it was december or january? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 i wonder if this cutoff low would be a snowstorm if it was december or january? It tracks a bit tight to the coast but there's a good area of below 0C 850s...I bet PA and VT, at least the higher elevations, will see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It tracks a bit tight to the coast but there's a good area of below 0C 850s...I bet PA and VT, at least the higher elevations, will see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Welcome to backdoor/cutoff season for the NYC/New England area. This April certainly won't be like last April, that's for sure. I remember it breaking past 90 in NYC last April. Tomorrow seems like our one chance to get some warm readings for much of the area, but east of NYC and into CT as well the southerly flow and clouds will keep it dreary. Tuesday might be warmer there than Monday on west winds. What is your thought for the highs for NYC and eastward through central LI? My bet the city would could still make it to 70 and even the low 70's but JFK would still be on the edge where I call for low to mid 60's but into LI if any sunshine burns through those obnoxious low clouds and fog maybe anywhere from Islip airport in Ronkomoka could still make it to 60 or in the 60's if not it would no better than the low to mid 50's as Eastern LI would not get much above 50 where the Tuesday temps would be warmer with the west wind including coastal CT as well. As said before LI is worse spot to live in the spring and sometimes it is the coolest spot to live in the east with the annoying cold water with that south wind where everybody else is warm LI gets the cold temps which sucks living there in April for example where it is in the 50's and 60's even in NNE like ME and NH and it is the upper 40's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 What is your thought for the highs for NYC and eastward through central LI? My bet the city would could still make it to 70 and even the low 70's but JFK would still be on the edge where I call for low to mid 60's but into LI if any sunshine burns through those obnoxious low clouds and fog maybe anywhere from Islip airport in Ronkomoka could still make it to 60 or in the 60's if not it would no better than the low to mid 50's as Eastern LI would not get much above 50 where the Tuesday temps would be warmer with the west wind including coastal CT as well. As said before LI is worse spot to live in the spring and sometimes it is the coolest spot to live in the east with the annoying cold water with that south wind where everybody else is warm LI gets the cold temps which sucks living there in April for example where it is in the 50's and 60's even in NNE like ME and NH and it is the upper 40's here. I'm not optimistic for most of Long Island especially if it takes us until noon and after to break through the marine layer clouds, and that's before the strong south winds are factored in, which the NAM has gusting upwards of 25-30 mph. Here in Long Beach we can never get above 50-55 on that in early April, and that could be generous. Perhaps places further inland like Farmingdale/MacArthur can do better but it's going to be tough. This is definitely a time of year where climate wise we are very New England like with the constant threats from backdoor fronts and the seabreeze. Manhattan will be like night and day compared to my house. Hopefully the cutoff low and associated rain/clouds can move out soon enough to salvage the end of the week. This time of year sucks most of all when you have onshore flow and constant clouds and cold marine air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'm not optimistic for most of Long Island especially if it takes us until noon and after to break through the marine layer clouds, and that's before the strong south winds are factored in, which the NAM has gusting upwards of 25-30 mph. Here in Long Beach we can never get above 50-55 on that in early April, and that could be generous. Perhaps places further inland like Farmingdale/MacArthur can do better but it's going to be tough. This is definitely a time of year where climate wise we are very New England like with the constant threats from backdoor fronts and the seabreeze. Manhattan will be like night and day compared to my house. Hopefully the cutoff low and associated rain/clouds can move out soon enough to salvage the end of the week. This time of year sucks most of all when you have onshore flow and constant clouds and cold marine air. I will be happy even if just gets out of the 40's tomorrow. I can't stand when everybody just around is in the 60s, 70, and 80's and LI is stuck in the 40's with this fog, drizzle and low clouds with a Southeast wind.Currently I live on the south shore in Suffolk ( 10 miles SSW of MacArthur) and 5 miles east of Islip and before I live in central island where is a bit warmer but most of LI gets screwed in the spring and most of time on the wrong side of the front. The cut of low is going to making everything worse during mid week. At least May the water's warm a bit it does get better here but the weather here sucks the most in April with the marine air so strong and any chances for thunderstorms are usually dead because the marine air but they have happen here in April with sometime elevated convention. The worse in the spring is the back door cold fronts and that is number hater and sometimes is warm sector ruins everything then being on the cool, damp, deary side causes miserable day. Places to our SW gets the chance for severe thunderstorms and our area gets a general rain and that is a bummer right there. I am sure we will be seeing alot of those this spring and will ruin our weather and cause a cool miserable day where SW of us has warm and more spring to summer like day with a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms and when they come to the cool stable air they will fall apart or become just batch of rain here. Summer time gets more fun here and some summers have been good thunderstorm since I have lived in Suffolk county since 2003. I wondering what this summer would bring where last summer was not so great despite there were a few decent ones in July and the epic severe event that happen in Queens and Brooklyn last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I will be happy even if just gets out of the 40's tomorrow. You'll get out of the 40s...850s are like +15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 You'll get out of the 40s...850s are like +15C. he is in easten li, 850s dont matter much but I suspect he reaches the upper 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 he is in easten li, 850s dont matter much but I suspect he reaches the upper 50s He's in a tough spot for early spring warmth, but I think with these 850s and sunshine in the afternoon, he'll get well into the 50s. I expect most of NYC metro to be in the lower 70s with 80s confined to TTN south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 He's in a tough spot for early spring warmth, but I think with these 850s and sunshine in the afternoon, he'll get well into the 50s. I expect most of NYC metro to be in the lower 70s with 80s confined to TTN south. What does this have to do with the midweek cut-off disaster? Over one inch of rain projected by NAM for most of the area Tues-Wed. Absolutely abominable weather for April. Looks like a very wet pattern taking shape for the northeast. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 What does this have to do with the midweek cut-off disaster? Over one inch of rain projected by NAM for most of the area Tues-Wed. Absolutely abominable weather for April. Looks like a very wet pattern taking shape for the northeast. WX/PT Nothing, but thunderdude asked a question regarding tomorrow's high temps, so they responded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 00z NAM is pretty bullish on 1"+ rains for the area. Both Tuesday and Wednesday look cool/cloudy/dreary. Get out and enjoy tomorrow folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 00z NAM is pretty bullish on 1"+ rains for the area. Both Tuesday and Wednesday look cool/cloudy/dreary. Get out and enjoy tomorrow folks. NAM always has its wet and sometimes cold bias too so I don't always buy it. Tuesday and especially don't look it will be quite as nice of a day for sure and pehaps temps will in alot areas not get out of the 40's that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 NAM always has its wet and sometimes cold bias too so I don't always buy it. Tuesday and especially don't look it will be quite as nice of a day for sure and pehaps temps will in alot areas not get out of the 40's that day. 0z NAM looks colder and wetter with the cut-off than the 18z GFS...Of course the GFS has just started to pick up on this storm as it initially had nothing but clear skies under a downsloping NW flow. Unfortunately that's not going to be the reality of it: with SSTs in the 40s, NE winds, and 850s near 0, most of us probably won't be getting beyond 50F on Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday...Thursday should be a nicer day with NW flow beginning behind the system as we clear out, but still 850s are below average so we aren't talking about summertime weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 1.25 on both the Nam and gfs 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 1.25 on both the Nam and gfs 06z run. 00z GFS pounds the area pretty good w/ 1-1.25", locally 1.5" rains. Next two days look pretty nasty, falling temps tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 00z GFS pounds the area pretty good w/ 1-1.25", locally 1.5" rains. Next two days look pretty nasty, falling temps tomorrow. Think we might get a repeat of that over the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Think we might get a repeat of that over the weekend? 0z GFS gives the area over 1 inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Radar looks good for a soggy over-night and morning commute...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Heavy rain incoming from the south. Yankee's game in great danger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Heavy rain incoming from the south. Yankee's game in great danger Yikes http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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