1816: the year of no summer

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I've been doing some reading on the year of now summer (1816) and it sounds quite fascinating. Could such an event possibly happen again? Obviously I hope not given the havoc it caused to food supplies throughout the world. Apparently Quebec City had over a foot of snow on the ground in early June that year!

http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/history/1816.htm

[whitemountainhiker]

I can't see why not. If there is an extreme volcanic eruption the Earth's temp cools for a couple years. If it happened once, I'm sure it will happen again. I remember when Pinatubo erupted in 1991, Worcester MA had one of its coolest summers on record.

I think the affect on people would be a bit different now than back then of course. That extreme cold affected people's livelyhood so much that many moved west to find more fertile lands, and because they could not recover.

These days prices would naturally rise, but I don't think lives would be at stake like they were then...mainly because there just aren't as many farmers in New England now, and there are more products available from around the world.

And one more thing, if a foot of snow falls on a day in June where I live, I think I will scream. haha

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Interestingly, tambora erupted in 1815, and resulted in an abnormally cold summer a year later. It also coincided with low sun spot activity.

Pinatubo erupted in 1991, was followed by a hot summer that year, and an abnormally cold summer in 1992

A volcano erupted in Iceland last April, and spewed ash into the air for a couple of weeks. Summer 2010 was hot. Will summer 2011 be abnormally cold as a result of the Icelandic volacano, just as 1816 and 1992 were? We'll find out in May and early June I guess. I recall the big cold front of May 24/25th in 1992, which sent temperatures down to the freezing mark. Summer 1816 only became abnormally cold in late May/early June, with the foot of snow falling in Quebec on June 6th.

We also currently have low sunspot activity.

[k***]

Interestingly, tambora erupted in 1815, and resulted in an abnormally cold summer a year later. It also coincided with low sun spot activity.

Pinatubo erupted in 1991, was followed by a hot summer that year, and an abnormally cold summer in 1992

A volcano erupted in Iceland last April, and spewed ash into the air for a couple of weeks. Summer 2010 was hot. Will summer 2011 be abnormally cold as a result of the Icelandic volacano, just as 1816 and 1992 were? We'll find out in May and early June I guess. I recall the big cold front of May 24/25th in 1992, which sent temperatures down to the freezing mark. Summer 1816 only became abnormally cold in late May/early June, with the foot of snow falling in Quebec on June 6th.

We also currently have low sunspot activity.

if the summer is cool, it wont be because of that volcano...to compare it to tambora or even pinatubo is ridiculous.

[whitemountainhiker]

Interestingly, tambora erupted in 1815, and resulted in an abnormally cold summer a year later. It also coincided with low sun spot activity.

Pinatubo erupted in 1991, was followed by a hot summer that year, and an abnormally cold summer in 1992

A volcano erupted in Iceland last April, and spewed ash into the air for a couple of weeks. Summer 2010 was hot. Will summer 2011 be abnormally cold as a result of the Icelandic volacano, just as 1816 and 1992 were? We'll find out in May and early June I guess. I recall the big cold front of May 24/25th in 1992, which sent temperatures down to the freezing mark. Summer 1816 only became abnormally cold in late May/early June, with the foot of snow falling in Quebec on June 6th.

We also currently have low sunspot activity.

I' m not so sure if we can compare last year's eruption to 1815, or Pinatubo..... though I can't be sure, because I don't know how much ash was dispersed. I do know that Pinatubo was the 2nd largest eruption of the 20th century and it dropped the Earth's temps about a degree thru 1993.

If someone can find the amount of ash that was deposited into the atmosphere in large eruptions, compared to last year, that would be great.

[k***]

I' m not so sure if we can compare last year's eruption to 1815, or Pinatubo..... though I can't be sure, because I don't know how much ash was dispersed. I do know that Pinatubo was the 2nd largest eruption of the 20th century and it dropped the Earth's temps about a degree thru 1993.

If someone can find the amount of ash that was deposited into the atmosphere in large eruptions, compared to last year, that would be great.

It's not just size of the eruptions, but also the latitude of the eruptions that makes comparison silly.

[am19psu]

It's not just size of the eruptions, but also the latitude of the eruptions that makes comparison silly.

But also the size in this case. Pinatubo was a high VEI-6, Tambora was a VEI-7 and the Iceland volcano was a VEI-4. It's an exponential scale, so Iceland was >100x less than Pinatubo.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Two thousand and froze my a** off!

[k***]

But also the size in this case. Pinatubo was a high VEI-6, Tambora was a VEI-7 and the Iceland volcano was a VEI-4. It's an exponential scale, so Iceland was >100x less than Pinatubo.

Yeah, I didn't know the exact VEI's, but I knew there was a huge difference

[Sickman]

It's not just size of the eruptions, but also the latitude of the eruptions that makes comparison silly.

Also the amount of sulfur dioxide in the ejecta, which is what causes post-eruptive stratospheric haze to form.

[k***]

Sounds like there a litany of reasons to not make the comparison...

[aslkahuna]

Also, Pinatubo occurred in a period of Solar activity that was FAR from low. In fact, during the week of Pinatubo's big blast there were about 5 X10 flare events and strong Gemag storms.

Steve

[A-L-E-X]

Also, Pinatubo occurred in a period of Solar activity that was FAR from low. In fact, during the week of Pinatubo's big blast there were about 5 X10 flare events and strong Gemag storms.

Steve

Yes, I was just about to say that there were other conditions that added to the year of no summer effect in 1816 besides Tambora and the fact is 1990 and 1991 were two of our hottest years on record and solar activity was close to its peak so Pinatubo got no help in cooling the climate from the sun. I've always thought El Chichon had a greater cooling effect than Pinatubo, but that may be just for the east coast..... the early 80s were much colder for us than the early 90s.

[meteorologist]

http://www.theedwardbulwer-lyttoninstitute.org/uploads/1/7/5/8/1758444/summer1816.pdf

[aslkahuna]

Yes, I was just about to say that there were other conditions that added to the year of no summer effect in 1816 besides Tambora and the fact is 1990 and 1991 were two of our hottest years on record and solar activity was close to its peak so Pinatubo got no help in cooling the climate from the sun. I've always thought El Chichon had a greater cooling effect than Pinatubo, but that may be just for the east coast..... the early 80s were much colder for us than the early 90s.

Both El Chicón and Pinatubo were El Niño eruptions with the 1982-83 Niño being extremely intense. The total lunar eclipses following both eruptions were unusually dark as well. I believe that the total ejecta from from Pinatubo was around 12km³ but I could be wrong on that number-SO₂ was very high as the magma in subduction zone volcanoes tends to be acidic and high in SO₂ while basaltic magma such as is found around Iceland is much less so. The 1982 event also occurred during a period of declining Solar activity. Pinatubo did the cooling by itself and also managed to mangle the Ozone Layer.

Steve

[A-L-E-X]

Both El Chicón and Pinatubo were El Niño eruptions with the 1982-83 Niño being extremely intense. The total lunar eclipses following both eruptions were unusually dark as well. I believe that the total ejecta from from Pinatubo was around 12km³ but I could be wrong on that number-SO₂ was very high as the magma in subduction zone volcanoes tends to be acidic and high in SO₂ while basaltic magma such as is found around Iceland is much less so. The 1982 event also occurred during a period of declining Solar activity. Pinatubo did the cooling by itself and also managed to mangle the Ozone Layer.

Steve

The dark lunar eclipse of December 29, 1982 was a great marker for how much ejecta was released into the upper atmosphere. I remember seeing that eclipse as a "black hole" that was much darker than the light polluted background sky. A rare case where light pollution actually "helped out." The lunar eclipse I had seen prior to that had been exceptionally bright, so that was quite the contrast. Were there any dark lunar eclipses after Pinatubo? I don't remember seeing anything although I'm sure there must have been. I've been looking for a site that historically ranks the magnitude of total lunar eclipses, but haven't found it so far.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I read somewhere that Benjamin Franklin believed that the eruption of an Icelandic volcano in 1783 had an impact on the weather that decade.

[turtlehurricane]

Volcano-atmosphere interactions are alot more complex than making the Earth warmer or cooler. The blanket of SO2 they release acts as a layer of absorption and scattering for sunlight, resulting in diabatic heating maximized at the top of the layer (in the lower stratosphere), and diabatic cooling below that in the troposphere. This layer of SO2 can vary greatly in the horizontal depending on where it's released and stratospheric currents, changing how it's heating effects influence the atmosphere drastically.

The common thread of thinking now from what I've read is that a volcano erupting with a certain intensity at a certain time of year in a certain location can produce a certain effect (like the year without a summer), but a change in any of those parameters results in a different effect.

[aslkahuna]

Volcano-atmosphere interactions are alot more complex than making the Earth warmer or cooler. The blanket of SO2 they release acts as a layer of absorption and scattering for sunlight, resulting in diabatic heating maximized at the top of the layer (in the lower stratosphere), and diabatic cooling below that in the troposphere. This layer of SO2 can vary greatly in the horizontal depending on where it's released and stratospheric currents, changing how it's heating effects influence the atmosphere drastically.

The common thread of thinking now from what I've read is that a volcano erupting with a certain intensity at a certain time of year in a certain location can produce a certain effect (like the year without a summer), but a change in any of those parameters results in a different effect.

Latitude of the volcano is important since Tropical ones can spread the SO₂ globally while high latitude ones tend to not do so hence the effects of Pinatubo were greater than Katmai the largest 20th Century eruption.

Steve

[aslkahuna]

The dark lunar eclipse of December 29, 1982 was a great marker for how much ejecta was released into the upper atmosphere. I remember seeing that eclipse as a "black hole" that was much darker than the light polluted background sky. A rare case where light pollution actually "helped out." The lunar eclipse I had seen prior to that had been exceptionally bright, so that was quite the contrast. Were there any dark lunar eclipses after Pinatubo? I don't remember seeing anything although I'm sure there must have been. I've been looking for a site that historically ranks the magnitude of total lunar eclipses, but haven't found it so far.

I saw both the dark eclipses of December 30 1963 and December 30 1982 and thought that the former was actually darker than the latter. The July 1982 total Lunar was dark but that could have also been due to the fact that the moon went right through the center of the Earth's shadow. There were no lunars in 1991 but the totals in 1992 and 1993 were darker than average. However, it was the PARTIAL Lunar Eclipse of June 1992 that was the most interesting. Had it been total it would have been the darkest of all time with the Moon disappearing completelyin a dark sky. I observed it and the edge of the Earth's shadow was sharply defined and as the craters passed into the shadow they disappeared completely from view. NOTHING of the eclipsed portion of the Moon could be seen through the telescope. I can't find the book on eclipses that gives the dates of Solars and Lunars but I do know the years.

Steve

[A-L-E-X]

I saw both the dark eclipses of December 30 1963 and December 30 1982 and thought that the former was actually darker than the latter. The July 1982 total Lunar was dark but that could have also been due to the fact that the moon went right through the center of the Earth's shadow. There were no lunars in 1991 but the totals in 1992 and 1993 were darker than average. However, it was the PARTIAL Lunar Eclipse of June 1992 that was the most interesting. Had it been total it would have been the darkest of all time with the Moon disappearing completelyin a dark sky. I observed it and the edge of the Earth's shadow was sharply defined and as the craters passed into the shadow they disappeared completely from view. NOTHING of the eclipsed portion of the Moon could be seen through the telescope. I can't find the book on eclipses that gives the dates of Solars and Lunars but I do know the years.

Steve

Wow, thanks Steve.... I wonder what the apparent magnitude of the dark portion of the moon might have been during that eclipse in June 1992? I know magnitude scales are mainly for point sources, but the average apparent magnitude of the dark part of the moon must have been below 15 if you couldn't see it in your dob!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

At least one person seems to think last year's Icelandic volcano had a role in the cold this past winter in the US, as well as the cyclone and flooding in Australia.

http://www.examiner.com/freethought-in-national/cold-weather-due-to-iceland-s-volcano

[am19psu]

At least one person seems to think last year's Icelandic volcano had a role in the cold this past winter in the US, as well as the cyclone and flooding in Australia.

http://www.examiner.com/freethought-in-national/cold-weather-due-to-iceland-s-volcano

There is absolutely no chance that the Iceland volcano had anything to do with Yasi or the flooding in Australia. Polar volcanoes do not affect the opposite hemisphere in any way.

I'm not willing to say there is no chance that it had an effect on the US winter, because I don't think it is settled, but all of the research I have seen shows that polar volcanoes have very little effect outside of increasing warm season precip over the Indian Ocean (c.f. Alan Robock papers)

[Ottawa Blizzard]

There is absolutely no chance that the Iceland volcano had anything to do with Yasi or the flooding in Australia. Polar volcanoes do not affect the opposite hemisphere in any way.

I'm not willing to say there is no chance that it had an effect on the US winter, because I don't think it is settled, but all of the research I have seen shows that polar volcanoes have very little effect outside of increasing warm season precip over the Indian Ocean (c.f. Alan Robock papers)

Didn't Benjamin Franklin think that the eruption of Laki in 1783 had a role to play in the bitter winter of 1783-84? I've read somewhere that in actual fact, it was probably a similar set up t owhat we've had these past two years which caused that.

I've been reading an old book called "Volcanic winter" by Henry Stommel, which tells the story of 1816. Very interesting. Apparently it was written not long after the eruption of El Chichon in Mexico in 1982 - an eruption which many apparently believe did have an impact on the weather, including the bitter cold winter of 1983-84 in the US and 1984-85 in western Europe.

[am19psu]

Didn't Benjamin Franklin think that the eruption of Laki in 1783 had a role to play in the bitter winter of 1783-84? I've read somewhere that in actual fact, it was probably a similar set up t owhat we've had these past two years which caused that.

I've been reading an old book called "Volcanic winter" by Henry Stommel, which tells the story of 1816. Very interesting. Apparently it was written not long after the eruption of El Chichon in Mexico in 1982 - an eruption which many apparently believe did have an impact on the weather, including the bitter cold winter of 1983-84 in the US and 1984-85 in western Europe.

No offense, but Ben Franklin isn't a relevant source for meteorology. Like I said, I'm not ready to rule out volcanism for some of the -AO/-NAO stuff we've seen the last two winters (also, FWIW, the Siberian/Alaskan volcanoes are more important than the Iceland one), but the research is not pointing that direction.

Tropical volcanoes, like El Chichon and Pinatubo, are totally different beasts and definitely affect mid-latitude weather by changing both the temperature gradient in the stratosphere (through IR absorption) and the SST gradient in the oceans (through scattering/reflection).

[aslkahuna]

The Siberian and Alaskan volcanoes would have a greater Northern Hemisphere effect because they are subduction zone volcanoes and hence have highly acidic magma which produces much ash and SO_2. The Icelandic (and Hawaiian) volcanoes have basaltic magma which is not as explosive as the acidic magma and produce less ash and SO_2.

_Steve

[Ottawa Blizzard]

No offense, but Ben Franklin isn't a relevant source for meteorology. Like I said, I'm not ready to rule out volcanism for some of the -AO/-NAO stuff we've seen the last two winters (also, FWIW, the Siberian/Alaskan volcanoes are more important than the Iceland one), but the research is not pointing that direction.

Tropical volcanoes, like El Chichon and Pinatubo, are totally different beasts and definitely affect mid-latitude weather by changing both the temperature gradient in the stratosphere (through IR absorption) and the SST gradient in the oceans (through scattering/reflection).

Thanks for the input. Would you agree that the El Chichon eruption had an impact on the winter of 1983-84? The book I'm reading seems to indicate that the media in late 1982 was starting to hint that there may be an impact and that the chilly summer of 1982 in New England may have been connected to the volcano.

[am19psu]

Thanks for the input. Would you agree that the El Chichon eruption had an impact on the winter of 1983-84? The book I'm reading seems to indicate that the media in late 1982 was starting to hint that there may be an impact and that the chilly summer of 1982 in New England may have been connected to the volcano.

The Robock papers I mentioned earlier show through simulation that major tropical eruptions usually have a +AO response in the first winter after the eruption, by strengthening the polar vortex. Then, the 2nd winter after has - AO response.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

There is absolutely no chance that the Iceland volcano had anything to do with Yasi or the flooding in Australia. Polar volcanoes do not affect the opposite hemisphere in any way.

I'm not willing to say there is no chance that it had an effect on the US winter, because I don't think it is settled, but all of the research I have seen shows that polar volcanoes have very little effect outside of increasing warm season precip over the Indian Ocean (c.f. Alan Robock papers)

Very interesting recent article on this subject done by Joe D'Aleo on Weatherbell (which is still a free site). If you scroll down the article, he seems to hint that tropical volcanoes like Pinatubo and El Chichon seem to result in warmer winters while high latitude ones tend to result in colder winters by promoting a negative AO and negative NAO.

http://www.weatherbell.com/jd/?p=773

[skierinvermont]

The Laki volcano is an example of a high SO2 content volcano in Iceland.

Also it was high latitude and yet probably had a substantial climate effect of around .2C globally.

It also was only a VEI4 and was mostly confined to the troposphere, and yet managed to have a climate effect due to the extreme amount of SO2 and the duration of the event.