JoMo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 14z RUC is pretty insane. I'm thinking/hoping it is overdoing dewpoints though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 HRRR has been consistent in showing development along the dryline by 21-22z in 3 locations: 1. I-35 corridor between Norman and Pauls Valley, Oklahoma 2. I-35 corridor near Ponca City, Oklahoma 3. I-35 corridor between Sherman and Waco, Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 15z sfc map taken with camera on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 14z RUC is pretty insane. I'm thinking/hoping it is overdoing dewpoints though. Its 75/61 in OKC, 71/59 in Tulsa, and 69/55 in Wichita. It is probably not out of the question for upper 50s to low 60s being in south/central kansas and low to mid 60s through central oklahoma by this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 RUC most more aggressive with low-level shear at 0z compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 New Day 1 is out: Possible upgrade to high risk in SE OK area (probably western AR too) due to a secondary low taking shape down that way. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 From new SWODY1... WITH THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING...HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN OK. DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE DIFFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING 120KT UPPER JET MAX WILL BE FOCUSING ON THIS AREA BY THIS EVENING AND IT WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE IF THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 New SPC WRF is out as well. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Holy crap....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 good lord.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 I agree with the SPC that this is potentially a high-risk caliber event. The potential outlook upgrade for SE OK lines up pretty well with my thoughts last night regarding a McAlester, OK to Mena, AR target area. I definitely see the potential for a few discrete supercells, but each being prolific significant tornado producers. As many of you would concur I'm sure, I have a lot more confidence in today's event that I had for the past few severe weather episodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Screenie of the NAM dropping the dynamic tropopause hammer. All 12Z runs came in today a bit stronger with the upper IPV anomaly. What a gorgeous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 good lord.... Yeah and that **** continues all through the night and all day tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 over/under on 75 tornadoes the next two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 over/under on 75 tornadoes the next two days Over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 sfc low down 2mb in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Some people down in the SE thread have stated that instability could be a limiting factor tomorrow but the latest from SPC certainly doesn't indicate they think it will be a problem. Pretty scary scenario setting up for areas that are not use to dealing with widespread super cell activity, although I certainly wouldn't consider tornados to be rare in AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 over/under on 75 tornadoes the next two days Over 125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Already getting a CU field with what looks to be a little shower popping to my west on the edge of the deeper moisture surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Do you think a dewpoint of 58-62 will be enough being fairly this far in the season? I know in the winter time that would defenitely do. I mean seems reasonable but it is hard to say this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Dryline will approach the I 35 corridor shortly. Mesonet DPs are 25 in Apache, 45 in Chickasha, 56 in Norman., and sixties, especially from Pauls Valley eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 hopefully i'll get some good hail...the first mesoscale discussion of the day is out and the storms will soon start trekking towards my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Detailed discussion & graphics regarding today and tomorrow's Severe Outbreak has been posted on the website http://www.28storms.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 MLC already has a Td of 62ºF, 20 gusting to 30, I see no issues getting upper 60s dewpoints not far South of the Red River (66ºF at PRX) well into Oklahoma. 20 gusting to 30, that says something about kinematics, I'd guess. Purcell, OK profiler looks interesting... http://www.profiler.noaa.gov/npn/profiler.jsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 over/under on 75 tornadoes the next two days If I were to guess I would say 80-90 with several of them rated EF3+. Now that is just a guess based on your descriptions and other advanced meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Ugh that dryline is coming through a couple hours earlier than expected...was hoping something would pop right over Norman. And ugh wish I didn't have an important class so late so I could have gone out today...oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Ugh that dryline is coming through a couple hours earlier than expected...was hoping something would pop right over Norman. And ugh wish I didn't have an important class so late so I could have gone out today...oh well. Wait what? You mean they don't cancel classes on severe weather days because everyone will be out chasing anyway?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Anyone know which (if any) WSOs will be having an off schedule sonde release? Fort Worth will, cap looks as strong as at 7 am... Eyeballing the WV loop, approaching disturbance may be 5 or 6 hours away from working that cap, although I'd expect the dry line to have passed by then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 14, 2011 Author Share Posted April 14, 2011 Over 125 if both days live up do their potential and count as one outbreak this may be in the top 5 outbreaks pure numbers wise. super outbreak has 148 but it was likley much higher if if that same outbreak occured today. I say 65 today(through 12z friday) and maybe 65tomorrow for starters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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