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Severe threat april 14, Tornado outbreak possible


janetjanet998

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

441 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

SOUTHEASTERN PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

AVERY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AVERY.

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This is one of the most wicked looking cyclones I have seen in my 3.5 years of forecasting. I am speechless.

This storm is currently bombing out. Classic positive feedback/self development--and all operational guidance is now playing catch up. The sky is the limit for how intense this synoptic storm eventually becomes. This will have a significant effect on the low level wind fields as well...

post-999-0-31741200-1302818503.jpg

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0-1k SHR is less than impressive, and LL rotation is pretty weak with some of these storms. I'd be more concerned in a few hours with strengthening LLJ increasing hodograph curvature.

Edit: breathtaking on visible satellite :-)

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There are rapid pressure falls being reported at sfc stations along the Red River associated with a secondary low development. Surface winds are backing as a response and the helicities should explode over the next couple hours across portions of SE OK. The cells between Ardmore and McAlester are in a prime position over the next few hours to produce a string of significant tornadoes and perhaps a violent one.

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Wicked ageostrophic response of the sfc wind field...look at that backing! Good God.

There are rapid pressure falls being reported at sfc stations along the Red River associated with a secondary low development. Surface winds are backing as a response and the helicities should explode over the next couple hours across portions of SE OK. The cells between Ardmore and McAlester are in a prime position over the next few hours to produce a string of significant tornadoes and perhaps a violent one.

Spectacular.

post-999-0-93562600-1302819794.gif

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There are rapid pressure falls being reported at sfc stations along the Red River associated with a secondary low development. Surface winds are backing as a response and the helicities should explode over the next couple hours across portions of SE OK. The cells between Ardmore and McAlester are in a prime position over the next few hours to produce a string of significant tornadoes and perhaps a violent one.

SPC agrees with you, great call man.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0521 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN HALF OF OK / PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...

VALID 142221Z - 142315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135 CONTINUES.

A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE KS/OK BORDER 20 NNE OF PNC TO 25 SE OF

OKC TO THE RED RIVER 25 WSW OF ADM AND FARTHER S-SW INTO N-CNTRL TX.

THE ARCING LINE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE

DRYLINE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD ERN OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO

DO SO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VECTORS

ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE WITH MAGNITUDES OF 45 TO 60 KT. THIS

DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE SUPERCELL THREAT

AS STORMS APPROACH THE TULSA AND MCALESTER AREAS THROUGH 2330Z WHILE

TRAVERSING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF

100-200 M2/S2 SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

THIS THREAT WILL FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...ALONG WITH THE

THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES...AS EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES INCREASE PER

THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES

WILL BE ACROSS SERN OK INTO FAR NERN TX THROUGH 00Z...WHERE SFC-3 KM

CAPE VALUES FROM 100-150 J/KG WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL

BUOYANCY TO THE RELATIVELY MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION /COMPARED TO

FARTHER NORTH/.

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...CONVECTION IS INITIATING ACROSS

PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX TO THE NORTH OF THE DFW AREA. GIVEN THE

DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR...THESE

STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL

ALSO BE A THREAT FOR A TORNADO GIVEN THE VEERING WIND PROFILE

EVIDENT IN THE SFC-2-KM LAYER PER THE NEARBY FORT WORTH VWP.

THUS...THE TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH BY

ONE TIER OF COUNTIES IN NERN TX IF STORMS FURTHER INTENSIFY.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN

STATIONARY INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK...AND POTENTIALLY

BE NUDGED WWD A BIT. THIS MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT

CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 00Z AS AN AREA OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT

APPROACHES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR

GUIDANCE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A

PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF

THE WATCH.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2011

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There are rapid pressure falls being reported at sfc stations along the Red River associated with a secondary low development. Surface winds are backing as a response and the helicities should explode over the next couple hours across portions of SE OK. The cells between Ardmore and McAlester are in a prime position over the next few hours to produce a string of significant tornadoes and perhaps a violent one.

RUC brings 0-1km EHIs upwards of 6 over E OK by 3z blink.gif

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