Wow Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Cloud cover still around so far, keeping it coolish. Hopefully the sun will break through soon. Supposed to get close to 80 but not sure if that'll be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Cloud cover still around so far, keeping it coolish. Hopefully the sun will break through soon. Supposed to get close to 80 but not sure if that'll be happening. It looks like you're getting more into the cooler sector. I'm sunny and 70. Huge contrast gradient with this wedge front, which will help drive the storms as they organize and actually develop more and more southbound once they hit the Apps this afternoon. Looks like a good setup for repeating severe cells and training near the tmb front. This kind of setup in the past in April is almost always a severe weather maker for the western halves of the Carolinas, esp. the closer to the front you are. I'm expecting some vicious hailers around this afternoon and early evening and in the stronger updrafts cores, and high winds again. Just now getting this county cleaned up, but tons of debris still on almost every street or neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 75/66 as the front sags into SC, I wonder just how far south it will go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see the severe threat a little larger than I have shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Feeling very Spring-like outside this morning, 71/60... Looking forward to what the afternoon and evening may bring my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 You can really tell where the backdoor front is on satellite this morning. I've got 55.9 here with fog while CLT,,HKY, are pushing 70 just to the SW. Someone could get a nice storm later close to this boundary IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 75 degrees at my house. This is the Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by GSP: 1102 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONTNORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.. DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERNCAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THISEVENING AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THEATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MANYOF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORMSTHAT DEVELOP. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCINGUNUSUALLY LARGE HAIL FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY...AS WELL ASLONG SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START OVERTHE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSSTHE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I'll probably head out and see what I can see when they roll in this afternoon... (edited for spelling) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Still cloudy.. 58 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 We should see that MCV feature progress eastward for the afternoon hours. The combination of weak forcing with the instability from daytime heating, strong shear, the strengthening of the low level jet and high lapse rate values nearing 8°C/KM (the NAM in particular indicating this) will all be present and should suffice to develop some powerful severe cells. Already this tells me that we could experience, once more, strong wind gusts around 60+mph (which should be the top threat), intense CG/CC lightning and large hail approaching 2" in diameter with aid of strong updraft in extreme cases. I don't really see a lot of super-cellular development occurring at this point but some folks just might get in on something tornadic in the areas supportive of an environment featuring strong low-level convergence/ impressive 0-6km bulk shear. For the record, the WSI-RPM model last night showed a very nasty line of storms occurring along parts of southern and western NC. Almost in similarity of strength to our previous severe event...Currently 74 with sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Almost 78 here, first sweat of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 83/66 currently imby DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN SD NERN NE ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA INTO SWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM CNTRL MN/WI...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KY/TN SEWD INTO WRN NC AND SC/NERN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR WRN TROF WILL START ITS EWD MOVE WITH A VERY STRONG JET DRIVING NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL DEEPEN NEWD ACROSS NEB BY THIS EVENING MOVING INTO SWRN MN BY 12Z SUN. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD THRU THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SRN NEB TO NRN MO LIFTS NWD. FURTHER EAST A WELL DEVELOPED MCS OVER LOWER OH VALLEY WILL TURN S OF E ON THE E SIDE OF RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM SEWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS INTO CAROLINAS COUPLED WITH THE OBSERVED MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60KT WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...ERN KY/TN SEWD THRU THE CAROLINAS... AS THE AIR MASS HEATS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE SEWD ACROSS ERN KY/TN INTO CAROLINAS TO THE S OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS NRN NC THEN SEWD ALONG SC/NC BORDER SHOULD SLOW AND BE THE NWD LIMIT OF THE GREATER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS OH RIVER INTO NRN KY EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SEWD INTO AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AND THE 50-60KT OF BRN SHEAR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AND EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. ALONG WITH THE WIND DAMAGE CONCERN...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORM THAT DEVELOPS. ONE FAVORED AREA WOULD BE THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VICINITY BACKDOOR FRONT CAROLINAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see the severe threat a little larger than I have shown Was really wanting to be outside all day today, but if it's gonna rain hopefully it'll be severe. I had family in Lattimore that didn't get power back on till Thursday from the storm Tue. morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 MRX is really being bullish regarding severe today. You rarely see them using the word "outbreak" and that instability levels could get "VERY strong" today. Thats just not the way they normally operate. Im sort of excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Just came in from 4 hours of yard word and humidity is beginning to show itself as my shirt is drenched. Looking for some big time storms to fire later in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 well , FOLKS got a nice surprise for the Azalea Festival here in ILM,this morning & today setting @ 56 and cloudy...(My GF went dressed for *warm* temps came back a Icicle, lol) Heard some thunder around 12am and again @ 3 am.. Loud enough too shake the house.. people were not happy at the parade,,, Leaving 1/2 way through the "Parade",,, because no-one was dressed for it, in T-shirts etc... Plus, because everyone, took the Weather forecast ad vertabium.... and dressed; for nice sunshine AND 75/80 degree forcasted temps.... BUST!...... currently 57, cloudy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 It begins.... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 136 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011 NCC021-111-199-091815- /O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110409T1815Z/ BUNCOMBE NC-YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL NC- 136 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...SOUTH CENTRAL YANCEY AND NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES... AT 129 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF SWANNANOA...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK MOUNTAIN...MONTREAT AND OLD FORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 138 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 230 PM EDT * AT 134 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BUSICK...CELO AND MICAVILLE... LEDGER... WOODLAWN AND SPRUCE PINE... LAKE JAMES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Latest Mesoscale discussion from SPC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0385.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA THROUGH SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091734Z - 091900Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NERN GA INTO SC THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FROM NERN GA INTO SC WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND 7-7.5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE CINH IS WEAKENING...AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY BECOME IMMINENT BY 18-19Z. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING WWD THROUGH NERN SC AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN GA INTO SWRN NC AND WRN SC...AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 04/09/2011 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Still right in that small transition zone. Front is probably right over us. About 60 degrees and the sun is close to breaking out at times. Just can't seem to do it. Looking like we'll be right off the NE edge of the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Report (and photo) of hail in Weaverville, NC on Twitter https://twitter.com/#!/MindofJP/status/56769095672135681 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Looks like the Charlotte Metro is going to be the sweet spot this go around. I am currently at 75 with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Tornado Watch just made effective about 4 minutes ago for the NC mountain and foothills areas: EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET. WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TORNADO THREAT HAS INCREASED AND WATCH 112 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 (edited to remove Tornado Watch info...I'm slow. LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 ne ga appears to be on the edge, but i am hopeful for some good storms. 80 with a dewpoint of 67 - it doesnt feel all that humid so i was surprised to see the dewpoint nearing 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 79 and thunderstorms in the area in Asheville. 54 and cloudy in Raleigh. Craziness. My nose was running and I could see my breath this morning during the Triangle MS Walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 79 and thunderstorms in the area in Asheville. 54 and cloudy in Raleigh. Craziness. My nose was running and I could see my breath this morning during the Triangle MS Walk. The storms have stayed just barely north. I could see the repeated lightning strikes. I would say Don got nailed pretty hard in Weaverville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 today is the first day since last Fall when the humidity and temp. combined really felt muggy. Dewpoint was mid 60's and now 62, when the temp was almost 80. Now high clouds are here and the temp is still 78, as my area is directly bisected from the cooler airmass east and ne, and much warmer just west. Hopefully some showers hit, but I could do without any severe. Looks like much of the I-40 area is about to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Very powerful cell currently taking place areas east of Crossnore, NC. 55 kg/m² VIL (don't think I've ever seen a value that high) with 100% severe hail. Last measured at 2.25" in diameter! EDIT(2:46PM): A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9:00PM EDT SATURDAY, APRIL 09 Event Start: Saturday, April 09, 2011 2:45 PM EDT Event End: Saturday, April 09, 2011 9:00 PM EDT Nc . North Carolina Counties Included Are Alexander Anson Cabarrus Catawba Cleveland Gaston Iredell Lincoln Mecklenburg Rowan Stanly Union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Very powerful cell currently taking place areas east of Crossnore, NC. 55 kg/m² VIL (don't think I've ever seen a value that high) with 100% severe hail. Last measured at 2.25" in diameter! I was just lookng at the same thing, Several cells coming right off the escarpment are building over 45K feet, and the db are high. I'm sure there are major hailers in that. If you look at the regional radar in motion, you get the sense that development will continue right over the Apps the next several hours, building down to northenr GA and western SC I think. The WRF then slams a line, veering its heading suddenly as the whole conglomeration is in central NC, meaning a powerful derecho type line can't be ruled out. Something interesting is about to happen it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Its a steamy 88/64 at the moment URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 245 PM EDT SAT APR 9 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOW UNCAPPED REF 17Z CHS SOUNDING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. ADDITIONALLY SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING BOTH THE LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025. ...HALES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 More detail regarding the Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Hail To 2 Inches In Diameter... Thunderstorm Wind Gusts To 70 Mph... And Dangerous Lightning Are Possible In These Areas. Discussion... Thunderstorms Will Increase In Number And Intensity Across The Watch Area Thru The Afternoon As A Strongly Unstable Air Mass Now Uncapped Ref 17z Chs Sounding. Primary Threat Will Be Large Hail And Damaging Winds As Storms Develop Upscale Into Line Segments. Additionally Supercells Are Possible Given The Favorable Deep Layer Shear Enhancing Both The Large Hail Threat Along With Isolated Tornadoes. Deja vu, anyone? That would make it an exact repeat of the previous severe event that some of us are still cleaning up after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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