jdrenken Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 235 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 .DISCUSSION... /234 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011/ MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC/HRRR/WRF/GFS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A NE-SW ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS FROM NERN OK INTO CNTRL MO AROUND 00Z. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO MISSOURI THIS EVENING IN THE TIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO ERODE THE STRONG CAP CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 700-900MB. THERE IS ALREADY AND EXTENSIVE CU FIELD FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF A DEEP PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS CAP ERODES WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 50-70KTS SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY/UPDRAFT HELICITY FIELDS. EVENTUALLY CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME LINEAR THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN THAT SHEAR VECTORS ARE ALIGNED WITH UPPER FLOW...WITH THE LINE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WITH THE SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND GOOD SETUP FOR TRAINING...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 storm strengthening west of Green bay(if that elavated stuff) however it may move into the lake before/if it gets severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 develepment east of Kansas city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 still cu6 here in st paul. cf trying to come thru, as winds are picking up (i estimate 14g22 here). but cloud motion still sw to ne. biggest cloud breaks were overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Something might be trying to develop SW of Charles City, IA on the Des Moines radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Thunder east of Red Wing, nothing on radar yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 development just SE of MSP here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 echoes up to 25kft southeast of Mason City, IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 take a guess where the front is. 3pm obs: flying cloud field 60F 20 miles to the east... st. paul holman 76F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Tornado Watch being worked on right now - Lacrosse is in a conference call with the SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 development just SE of MSP here we go Wow, that was fast. Heard a few rumbles of thunder and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Yes please...15z SREF FTW! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 take a guess where the front is. 3pm obs: flying cloud field 60F 20 miles to the east... st. paul holman 76F Danny Gladden at Target Field mentioned that a bit ago, a 20 degree drop at "the field". Figured the CF moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Wow, that was fast. Heard a few rumbles of thunder and boom. 52 DBZ already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Yes please...15z SREF FTW! haha Lol thats insane for us Central MI folks (I'm 15 miles NE of you) must just be a weenie run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Rock hard towers here just west of New Hampton Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Yes please...15z SREF FTW! haha Much better than the last few SREF probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Rock hard towers here just west of New Hampton Iowa. Iowa very close to popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Wow, that was fast. Heard a few rumbles of thunder and boom. that's all that was needed. down by red wing and lake city. that's ignition point #1. my guess on the watch, US 8 to the north, US 34 south, US 52/63 to the west, menomonie to rockford to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Rock hard towers here just west of New Hampton Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 that's all that was needed. down by red wing and lake city. that's ignition point #1. my guess on the watch, US 8 to the north, US 34 south, US 52/63 to the west, menomonie to rockford to the east. Right over my head....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 SPC AWW 102017 WW 120 TORNADO IA MI MN WI LS 102020Z - 110400Z AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 5NNW IWD/IRONWOOD MI/ - 45S VOK/CAMP DOUGLAS WI/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /65NNW RHI - 28SW DLL/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050. LAT...LON 46588795 43258818 43259236 46589237 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 First PDS of the year. Probs: Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (60%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (60%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (80%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... NUMEROUS TORNADOES INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 90/60 Tornado probs on the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Cell near Red Wing, WI reminds me of the Bowdle storm on radar when it went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 looks like we did get a PDS out of it. st. croix r. on east and from lake superior to dubuque got that second cell to the north going up now just east of new richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Well that didn't take long, stepped away for a bit and bam, our little fine line that was showing has started to light up in Northern Iowa. Don't know if there'll be enough support to ignite a lot to the South of these but we'll see. I am cautiously optimistic. Sitting here in Prairie Du Chien for another hour or so and then I'm heading home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 you can really see how that snow field on the RUC model over N WI is screwing up the SPC meso page....look at SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 first warning and the storm is already rotating NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 334 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL BARRON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... WEST CENTRAL CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... DUNN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... NORTHEASTERN PIERCE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... SOUTHEASTERN ST. CROIX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT * AT 331 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRING VALLEY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF ELLSWORTH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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