L.B. LaForce Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Man, how long is the ferry ride across Lake MI? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Man, how long is the ferry ride across Lake MI? haha Probably a few hours? Considering the storms won't be firing up for another 5 hours, you probably have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Man, how long is the ferry ride across Lake MI? haha Wish I could grab an F-16 from Elmendorf AFB and come down....prob take the same amount of time as your ferry ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Holy crap! From 57 to 76 in one hour!!!!! I expected warm air to advect in from the warmfront, but I didn't expect 20 degrees in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHWEST IL...MUCH OF WI...AND WESTERN UPPER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL TX... ...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT WESTERN GREAT LAKES... DEEP WRN UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING BODILY EWD INTO PLAINS WITH A VERY STRONG...100-130 KT...MID/UPR JET APPROACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR TO DRIVE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK ONCE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO INITIATE. WITH THE SURFACE LOW SWRN MN DEEPENING NEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY TONIGHT...STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE SPREADING MOISTURE NWD ACROSS WI INTO WRN GREAT LAKES. A PRONOUNCED EML WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES PREVAILS ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL AID IN VERY RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH BY MID AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND SWD FROM SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN DLH AND MSP INTO NERN IA. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 80S BY MID AFTERNOON IN SERN MN/ERN IA WHERE MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THE TIME OF EXPECTED INITIATION SHOW EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 250-400 MS/S2 AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE MODE OF THE DAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WI WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY FAST...IN EXCESS OF 50KT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT COULD SPREAD AS FAR N AS PORTIONS OF THE WRN UP OF MI PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE UP OF MI LATE EVENING DRIVEN BY THE INTENSIFYING WIND FIELDS AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS HAVE RAISED THE WIND DAMAGE PROBS THIS AREA...EVEN THOUGH STORMS BY THEN COULD BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. ..MID MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON TO ERODE THE CAP ALONG THE SWD EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. HOWEVER THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE STEEP EML...SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE SURFACE INITIATION OCCURS. AGAIN SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO BE THE EARLY MODE WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. DURING THE LATE EVENING TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE LIKELY WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Wish I could grab an F-16 from Elmendorf AFB and come down....prob take the same amount of time as your ferry ride. Glad you're continuing to post and help us keep tabs on these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Thanks....I will keep posting....still have to get a laptop for home so just post while working in my "gaps" where I have time to between my duties....that and studying to pass my upper air certification test (which I did two weeks ago passed on first try which was sweet) is why I have been mostly absent. Today looks like a classic big outbreak and janetjanet is heading to the right spot. I'd probably setup shop somewhere near La Cross depending what analysis shows at 3pm. I get off work in an hour so won't be on then but wish everyone good luck. After this storm I haven't looked at data for down there but we will be having a high amplitude flow up here with a 567 500mb max over Dutch Harbor and a 515 500mb low south in the Gulf of Alaska south of anchorage. The ridge pokes northeast to almost north of Nome, Alaska, with a flow in the heart of the trough over Cold Bay straight from north of Barrow. That cold air looks to funnel due south before turning southeast off the west coast. With that type of flow pattern I would bet another storm will develop/emerge late next week down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Kind of surprised the warm front hung up like it did. Keeping a wary eye on things. With the warm front now more or less stationary, and we are in full sun with some good SSW winds and temps at 77 degrees, I wouldn't be surprised if the game changes somewhere along the line today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Kind of surprised the warm front hung up like it did. Keeping a wary eye on things. With the warm front now more or less stationary, and we are in full sun with some good SSW winds and temps at 77 degrees, I wouldn't be surprised if the game changes somewhere along the line today. Not to mention those light showers in WC and NW Wisconsin. Those will keep the sun away for an hour or two, perhaps limiting the instability I would believe. I would say from LaCrosse to Madison northeast to Sheboygan would be the area to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Also, they did shift the SE part of the moderate zone of the most recent SWODY1 outlook the slightest bit south and east to include Sheboygan and Fon du Lac most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 71/62 here with sun breaking through. feels like summer. too bad the CF is about to pass and leave us high and dry. got a nice hailer going up near the arrowhead though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Temperatures around 80 with dew points around 60. Let's get this show on the road! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 pushing 80+ already with sbcape nearing 1500. Widespread severe wx looking unlikely this far south, but i thing the tail end cell in far southern wisc, or northern illinois will be one to watch this evening. EDIT: looking throug things, i'd really watch the lakeside areas in southern wisconsin (kenosha maybe), storms will be arriving there a bit later and we might see some locally enhanced helicity off the lake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The RUC and HRRR don't really show much backing of the surface winds over NE IA and S WI, laying credence to the NAM and GFS veering the surface flow over much of the warm sector for the past several days. The main tornado threat appears to be across central and NW WI near the surface low. It's hard to envision seeing enough directional shear to support sustained supercellular mode farther south. As a side note, perhaps one of you modeling experts can explain to me how the RUC and HRRR still have snow cover over portions of northern WI, which causes a pretty hilarious cold pool with temps in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 LaCrosse NWS still expecting the possibility of long track tornadoes in their CWA with storm initiation 3-5 CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 1240 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF COOK...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM WEST OF COOK. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Got kind of a late start after sleeping in at Fort Dodge. About our only choice at this point is to try northeast Iowa and hope for the best. Agree with many of you guys that Wisconsin looks the best. Don't think we can make it there in time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 pretty cold up there too. cook sitting at 45, int'l falls at 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Got kind of a late start after sleeping in at Fort Dodge. About our only choice at this point is to try northeast Iowa and hope for the best. Agree with many of you guys that Wisconsin looks the best. Don't think we can make it there in time though. Theoretically you could gun it to La Crosse and hope that storms initiate later rather than sooner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 new RUC fires storms over western/NW IL by 23z and moves them into chicago by 02z CU field bubbling up now over eastern IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 dry line may be surging/developing east now..big dedwpoint drop over wetern MO last hour and central IA...while areas further east not mixing out so far MLI now 81/64 versus 79/62 last hr at 17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Some agitated cumulus showing up on the vis just North-Northwest of Waterloo Iowa. Little tail of weaker cumulus showing up in a little tail to the SW of that area too. Also seeing a little bit of agitation on the vis in Western Mo. just south of KC it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 LOL, looks like janet just beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Gotta love Ely MN with a svr t storm warning and 48/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Definitely clouded up here rapidly in the past hour or so just north of Iowa City. Would say it's now overcast with very few pockets of blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The RUC and HRRR don't really show much backing of the surface winds over NE IA and S WI, laying credence to the NAM and GFS veering the surface flow over much of the warm sector for the past several days. The main tornado threat appears to be across central and NW WI near the surface low. It's hard to envision seeing enough directional shear to support sustained supercellular mode farther south. As a side note, perhaps one of you modeling experts can explain to me how the RUC and HRRR still have snow cover over portions of northern WI, which causes a pretty hilarious cold pool with temps in the 30s. I might be missing something but with moderate instability, modest directional shear, good speed shear, and lack of linear forcing early on, why wouldn't there be supercellular structures around S WI/N IL with anything that can fire in the early evening? Unless you meant multiple tornadic cells which is more debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 as i mentioned this mnorning..we can't forget about this area AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 ..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION UPDATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CREATING A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (MLCIN) IS LESS THAT -150J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WHILE 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 10 DEGREES CELSIUS. A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY SURGING EAST ACROSS KANSAS AT MIDDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE CAP ERODING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. MESOSCALE MODELS MAYBE A TAD TOO AGGRESSIVE ON ERODING THE CAP...AS THE GOOD HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. ALSO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE ADVECTING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. WILL LIKELY DO A SPECIAL SOUNDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED SLOW IN FORWARD PROGRESS AND REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST...BETTER HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP. AS THIS HAPPENS... THE DRYLINE MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAKENING CAP AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY OCCUR FROM WARSAW SOUTHWEST THROUGH JOPLIN INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSE TO BEING PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. INSTABILITY WILL STILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG RANGE WHILE WIND SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DISCREET CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ALSO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.