iowahawkeyedave Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Looks like the latest run of the SREF is backing off on this. It's down to a max of 20 when the previous run was at a max of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I'm gonna (as usual) side the other way on this. Look at that GFS hodo. Good grief, even with SSW winds, that is an impressive hodo. And w/r/t the NAM, keep in mind it often underestimates low-level winds/shear/helicity, especially with events in this range. That GFS hodograph you posted has good turning in the lowesr 1-1.5 km or so.... but above that... is the classic mid-level backing that more often than not (quite mother freaking often, actually... as it has bitten me numerous times back in the day) will screw up what will otherwise be a High Risk tornado day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Believe the SPC WRF graphics have updated (at least the sim radar) http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ Shows much of Wisconsin getting raked. This is the model I'm going with; it fits severe weather events here right to the tee: impressive line of storms peters out right as it reaches the lake. Would still be quite exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 This is the model I'm going with; it fits severe weather events here right to the tee: impressive line of storms peters out right as it reaches the lake. Would still be quite exciting. Lake will have zero mitigating role in this case given the strong gradient winds out of the ssw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Lake will have zero mitigating role in this case given the strong gradient winds out of the ssw. I was semi-kidding, but the model I was referring to had the storms weaken considerably by the time they reached Lake Michigan. I think normally the combination of the sun setting and the lake cause storms to weaken as they approach Milwaukee. Occasionally, like June 7/8, 2008, that is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Main question here continues to be how fast instability wanes overnight. Models are showing MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg well into the overnight hours. Wind fields will obviously be strong throughout the night. If I were SPC I might go with a 30% wind for this area on this upcoming outlook. If not I imagine it won't be very far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I was hoping to go to bed by 1, but if the SWODY1 isn't out, I think I'll stay up a while longer, only to probably be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I was hoping to go to bed by 1, but if the SWODY1 isn't out, I think I'll stay up a while longer, only to probably be disappointed. I wonder how many refreshes per second SPC is seeing right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I wonder how many refreshes per second SPC is seeing right now... I think it saw about 30 or 40 from me alone in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I wonder how many refreshes per second SPC is seeing right now... Hopefully not enough to crash the server. That would be very very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 AMID A ROBUST LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS/...SUPERCELLS...SOME SPLITTING...WILL DEVELOP/LIKELY RACE NORTHEASTWARD AT UPWARDS OF 45-50 KT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WELL-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS EVENTUAL BOWS ECHOS BY MID/LATE EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES...WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN/FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI...WITH LARGE HAIL A LIKELIHOOD AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/EASTERN IA TO MUCH OF WI/WESTERN U.P. OF MI AND NORTHERN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TO ARKLATEX... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO ARKLATEX... A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EPISODE...INCLUDING FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ESPECIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN INTO WI. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS TODAY...WITH A LEAD/NORTHERN PIECE OF THIS TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. AIDED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN/ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WI/U.P. OF MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...ALL WHILE A WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MN AND WI AS WELL AS LOWER MI. SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY VICINITY. INITIALLY...ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG/VEERING LOW LEVEL JET...EARLY DAY ELEVATED TSTMS MAY POSE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT FROM PORTIONS OF MN INTO WI/NORTHERN MI. SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...TIED TO THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT /PERHAPS AUGMENTED TO A DEGREE BY EARLY DAY ONGOING CONVECTION/...SEASONALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR. BENEATH A SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS EMANATING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG TO UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE EML/CAP SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY/PERHAPS MID AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHERWISE CREATING UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DIURNALLY /SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET AXIS/ ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THAT SAID...THE MOST LIKELY/HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT/ADJACENT WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SEVERE TSTMS TO ERUPT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/FAR WESTERN WI/NORTHEAST IA. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MOST 00Z DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUNS OF THE WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL. AMID A ROBUST LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS/...SUPERCELLS...SOME SPLITTING...WILL DEVELOP/LIKELY RACE NORTHEASTWARD AT UPWARDS OF 45-50 KT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WELL-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS EVENTUAL BOWS ECHOS BY MID/LATE EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES...WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN/FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI...WITH LARGE HAIL A LIKELIHOOD AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...OTHER STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE TOWARD/AFTER DARK ALONG THE DRYLINE/OVERTAKING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS TO THE ARKLATEX. SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE/ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/INCREASING PW ATTENDANT TO THE WARM FRONT. AMID MARKEDLY STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION COULD CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AND CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE VICINITY INTO NY AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF PA/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT. ..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 04/10/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Meh, pretty much the same as the midday update for Day 2. Probably a waste of time in hindsight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 If there was going to be a high risk later today, with the current size of the moderate, would think the high risk would have to be extremely small in coverage size. Not sure how the SPC would approach that if it were to come to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 AMID A ROBUST LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS/...SUPERCELLS...SOME SPLITTING...WILL DEVELOP/LIKELY RACE NORTHEASTWARD AT UPWARDS OF 45-50 KT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WELL-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS EVENTUAL BOWS ECHOS BY MID/LATE EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES...WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN/FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI...WITH LARGE HAIL A LIKELIHOOD AS WELL. There's my 30% wind haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Does anyone see potential for Mondays setup farther east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 DVN AFD. Possible downgrade to a slight risk for DVN CWA. CAP WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT FORCING ANDCONVERGENCE NOT IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE FRONT. BETTER DYNAMICSASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTEREDCONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL TAP A STRONG WIND FIELD BUTUNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE. THETORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE WELL NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MN AND MUCHOF WI CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT. MODERATE RISK OF SEVEREIN THE DVN CWA BUT SPC MAY DOWNGRADE TO A SLIGHT WITH THE 12ZOUTLOOK. AFTER DARK THE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM INTO A BKN-SOLID LINEALONG THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE DVN CWA. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY30-50 PERCENT BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SEVERE LATE THISAFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.WILL BE GOING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THECWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S EASTWITH CONTINUED BRISK WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I really don't know what to say after reading all the AFDs from local offices, things looked so great for so many runs/days, then the 00z collectively crapped the bed, and everyone is backing off all at once. I really hope that this doesn't come back to bite them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The things that bother me are: 1) The cap. 2) Is the mid level flow too strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I really don't know what to say after reading all the AFDs from local offices, things looked so great for so many runs/days, then the 00z collectively crapped the bed, and everyone is backing off all at once. I really hope that this doesn't come back to bite them. Some of the NWS offices have been waffling back and forth, so nothing new. To be honest I never knew what was so impressive about this setup in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 from Gino....was texting me earlier tonight about the 0z runs REALLY PULLING OUR HAIR OUT THIS MORNING AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. MOST NOTABLY...THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE ADVERTISED IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS GONE THIS FAR NORTH. IN ADDITION...UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE MUCH WEAKER/MORE POSITIVELY TILTED RESULTING IN LESSER HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY IMPRESSIVE EML AS SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS (SGF/TOP/OAX)...WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO LIFT THROUGH CAP...AND ABSENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN LATEST GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. IN FACT...HARD TO FIND A MODEL THATS STILL SHOWING ANY PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT AND MANY ARENT DEVELOPING ALL THAT MUCH CONVECTION EVEN ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CWA. AS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRETTY UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH VERY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS. REGARDING TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...BIG QUESTIONS HAVE NOW ARISEN REGARDING EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE LOOKING TO BE TIED MORE TO THE COLD FRONT...WHERE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS IS LOOKING DRAMATICALLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FEARED. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS LLJ INTENSIFIES...TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE LINEAR AND THUS A FAR LESSER (THOUGH NOT QUITE ZERO) TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD CERTAINLY CARRY A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH THIS IS NO LONGER LOOKING LIKE A HIGHER END THREAT. MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO NOW APPEARS TO BE SUPERCELLULAR STORM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER MN/WI...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER/DEEPER ASCENT AND WEAKER CAP. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI AS COLD FRONT OVER TAKES PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE TOWARD EVENING...WITH THOSE STORMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD AS THEY MOVE EAST. SEEMS QUITE LIKELY STORM MODE WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY LINEAR...SO MAINLY A WIND AND MODEST HAIL THREAT WITH A MUCH MORE LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The trough shape/orientation has actually trended better in the past day or two. At one point this thing was progged to attempt a slight negative tilt on some of the guidance. Now we have this on the 6z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Some of the NWS offices have been waffling back and forth, so nothing new. To be honest I never knew what was so impressive about this setup in the first place. Good shear, unseasonably strong system/warmth ahead of it, good moisture flow from the gulf, and impeding EML/dryline. Just to name a few things that would/could make this impressive..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 from Gino....was texting me earlier tonight about the 0z runs He's calling for highs near 90 in some of LOT's counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Good shear, unseasonably strong system/warmth ahead of it, good moisture flow from the gulf, and impeding EML/dryline. Just to name a few things that would/could make this impressive..... I mean like, for the really strong wording we've seen, and the Day 3 MDT, etc. Certainly a setup enough to warrant a MDT day 1 at least, but iono, I just feel like this event's been played up a lot more than others have. Not saying it won't perform, but just thought that was interesting, because this is about just on par with the other setups we've seen this year imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 He's calling for highs near 90 in some of LOT's counties. just crazy..if I dont chase golfing could be quite hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I mean like, for the really strong wording we've seen, and the Day 3 MDT, etc. Certainly a setup enough to warrant a MDT day 1 at least, but iono, I just feel like this event's been played up a lot more than others have. Not saying it won't perform, but just thought that was interesting, because this is about just on par with the other setups we've seen this year imo. Yeah I think we will just agree to disagree here on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I mean like, for the really strong wording we've seen, and the Day 3 MDT, etc. Certainly a setup enough to warrant a MDT day 1 at least, but iono, I just feel like this event's been played up a lot more than others have. Not saying it won't perform, but just thought that was interesting, because this is about just on par with the other setups we've seen this year imo. The SPC still has the moderate risk for day 1. So you're saying that's a bad forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 FWIW..the HRRR out to 22z doesn't have anything significant in eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL. time for bed after a mixed emotions chase today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Yeah I think we will just agree to disagree here on this one. Key will be how much fires farther ahead of the cold front. Directional shear is a little marginal but deep layer shear is way more than enough for supercells. Situation has dangerous potential as is but if the surface flow ends up 10 or 20 degrees more backed, it will take this to another level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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