Powerball Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I think you mean OVERWHELMING! Not overwhelming (it's only about -50 J/KG more CINH and 700mb temps are only 1*C to 2*C warmer), but notably stronger. It just shows how highly sensitive the setup is (as Izzi at LOT alluded to). While it has the potential to be a great event it also has the potential to be a huge bust if one ingredient goes haywire like the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Not overwhelming (it's only about -50 J/KG more CINH and 700mb temps are only 1*C to 2*C warmer), but notably stronger. It just shows how highly sensitive the setup is (as Izzi at LOT alluded to). While it has the potential to be a great event it also has the potential to be a huge bust if one ingredient goes haywire like the NAM shows. Would certainly be quite the bust, and give the people of chicagoland another reason to downplay the next one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Except for some isolated area in Northern Wisconsin, everyone West of I-75, North of I-80, West of I-55 and North Of I-70 gets nothing (not even rain showers) It looks as if the cap was stronger. Capping doesn't look unbreakable. I think this is probably a case of the NAM being dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 More OT: the NWS site seems to be having issues.... I wonder if it's because all of the traffic? The Central Region NWS offices are reporting their web sites are working very slowly. NWS Headquarters techs were notified and working the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Just glancing but not sure why the NAM is doing that. Hi-res models should have an edge as usual. Because the NAM will not resolve isolated supercells. When it had that precip breaking out, that was more indicative of a line to be honest. If you look at VVs, there is still enhanced VV across IL and WI tomorrow evening. IMO, this just heightens the danger even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Capping doesn't look unbreakable. I think this is probably a case of the NAM being dumb. An hour or so away for the GFS to see if the NAM is being the NAM or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Capping doesn't look unbreakable. I think this is probably a case of the NAM being dumb. Capping in the upper midwest in April with these temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 An hour or so away for the GFS to see if the NAM is being the NAM or not. GFS is the last model that should be making that determination in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Because the NAM will not resolve isolated supercells. When it had that precip breaking out, that was more indicative of a line to be honest. If you look at VVs, there is still enhanced VV across IL and WI tomorrow evening. IMO, this just heightens the danger even more. Yeah, nice bullseye over northern Illinois at 00z Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Capping in the upper midwest in April with these temps? Going along with that, one of the key ways to break caps is with daytime heating. Unless the NAM lingers the overnight convection, to me (a novice) it wouldn't make sense that NOTHING would break out. What a waste of good ingredients that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Capping doesn't look unbreakable. I think this is probably a case of the NAM being dumb. Probably, but even for the NAM it's pretty odd that it's showing NO precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 And let's remember that expectations for tornadoes for this Sat night by the models were not all that great and our focus was on Sunday, yet we have apparently had some examples of massive tornadoes this evening. This lends support to the strength of this system in my opinion. It is truly hard to believe that we would have an unbreakable cap....My goodness, these temps ard the location of the svr risk is more akin to early June instead of early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 NAM is lowering the 850 MB DP over Illinois, almost like it's a patch of dry air? You can see it over central and N Illinois: Compared to the 12z at the same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 NAM must be expecting that EML and strong south winds will mix out those dews big time to get a reduction like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Hmmmm. It looks as though one model has either latched on to something, or is just having a "junk run".. That patch of lowered DP's in Central, and Northern IL just looks odd. With everything building up, and then to have a run like this pop up, gives one pause, to say the least. If the GFS starts sniffing out the same thing, then something might be up. Not letting my guard down at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Well, so much for overnight storms here. The weather office just updated their forecast, and now they expect the complex in N. Iowa and S. Minnesota to run through Central Wisconsin, maybe skimming the Milwaukee area at best. If tomorrow's storms bust, it will be a terribly busty weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Wow, the NAM goes bonkers with 700 mb VV's after 6z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Well, Schwartz on ABC 7 did a good job of playing the fence (Given the model data, it seems that was the sensible thing to do) . Their "Future Cast" radar says NO! for storms tomorrow. but he did show all of the atmospheric elements and how they could produce major storms tomorrow... Then he ran the "Future Cast" radar and didn't even show any showers. I would think, that given the dynamics in the atmosphere tomorrow... something has to give.. We'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 That looks like a broken line of supercells to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 count me as not concerned with the NAM, this never was looking like a convective QPF explosion event, the trend has been towards isolated sups and not a widespread squal line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 count me as not concerned with the NAM, this never was looking like a convective QPF explosion event, the trend has been towards isolated sups and not a widespread squal line. And the NAM did horrible with todays convection too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 And the NAM did horrible with todays convection too. That settles it for me. I won't even look at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 GFS doesn't have the drying at 850 and produces more convection (based off the 3 hr QPF fields) Just the NAM being the NAM probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I'd be far more concerned about whether the wind profile is too unidirectional than the lack of QPF. Those WRF runs from the NWS that Beau posted, taken verbatim, just aren't going to cut it. I suspect they're underdoing the backing of the surface wind field, but this potential problem has been there for days now and we're just going to have to see how it all works out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Hodo near RFD at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I'd be far more concerned about whether the wind profile is too unidirectional than the lack of QPF. Those WRF runs from the NWS that Beau posted, taken verbatim, just aren't going to cut it. I suspect they're underdoing the backing of the surface wind field, but this potential problem has been there for days now and we're just going to have to see how it all works out tomorrow. +1 It's why I've been sorta meh about this threat this whole time, but I didn't want to go against the grain. I just can't reconcile myself against those SSW winds... but as Beau and you say we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 +1 It's why I've been sorta meh about this threat this whole time, but I didn't want to go against the grain. I just can't reconcile myself against those SSW winds... but as Beau and you say we'll see what happens. I'm gonna (as usual) side the other way on this. Look at that GFS hodo. Good grief, even with SSW winds, that is an impressive hodo. And w/r/t the NAM, keep in mind it often underestimates low-level winds/shear/helicity, especially with events in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Believe the SPC WRF graphics have updated (at least the sim radar) http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ Shows much of Wisconsin getting raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I can't remember which met it was at Eastern but there was someone who would tip us off about what SPC was planning to do in these higher risk situations. If you're still around, hook us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Watching severe weather potentials shape up is a bit like watching war in the Middle East. You can have all the signs pointing to massive conflict, but sometimes it all just calms down without a shot being fired. Sometimes you get more than you bargained for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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