Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I am waiting for the early afternoon "particularly dangerous situation" tornado watch for tomorrow... As are the rest of us. Having this initiate with a pre frontal trough makes this event particularly susceptible for tornadoes as Gino mentioned in the LOT weather briefing. Warm and cold front tornadoes are one thing, but the biggies often have a pre frontal trough and dryline to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I am waiting for the early afternoon "particularly dangerous situation" tornado watch for tomorrow... I'd guess we'll see 1 or 2. The record of 7 is probably safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I'd guess we'll see 1 or 2. The record of 7 is probably safe I remember that day, it was the day I graudated from Prairie High School. The sheer number of PDS Tornado Watches was just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I'd guess we'll see 1 or 2. The record of 7 is probably safe What was the year on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 What was the year on that? 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Corresponding outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 ^ So have we gone main thread potential here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I remember that day, it was the day I graudated from Prairie High School. The sheer number of PDS Tornado Watches was just insane. I believe that is the biggest 2 day outbreak on record. Many of the tornadoes were on the weak side so bad as it was, it could've been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 2004. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Man that weather briefing for Chicago was really something great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Corresponding outlook Not to further derail the thread here, but that was a pretty big chunk of real estate covered by a High Risk (and MDT for that matter). What has been the largest ever? Does that come close? All I remember from that day was it being very muggy as I was moving home from college that day for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coreyback Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I remember that day, it was the day I graudated from Prairie High School. The sheer number of PDS Tornado Watches was just insane. That was also the day I had my HS graduation party (day after graduation). I had told people earlier in the week that cake would still be available in the basement if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 was sitting in southern indiana that day. had a tornado touchdown just a couple miles away; it was quite the frightening experience. anywho... here's the mpx snippet about mañana and the potential for the TC to be affected. IMBY, i know, but with a setup like this, if convection can fire early enough, you have to worry about a population center this size. could be an initiation location a la 3/25/07 where cells form right over the cities and pass into wWI. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SFC-3KM CAPE REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 J/KG BY 21Z ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL BE OUR FOCUS AREA FOR TORNADOES IN THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 was sitting in southern indiana that day. had a tornado touchdown just a couple miles away; it was quite the frightening experience. Was that the Indy 500 tornado day? I was watching it all happen from my parents in MO recovering from surgery. Blah. Tomorrow I will be watching it tied down to an ambulance pager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Jesus Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Was that the Indy 500 tornado day? I was watching it all happen from my parents in MO recovering from surgery. Blah. Tomorrow I will be watching it tied down to an ambulance pager. 'twas. i was in bloomington, in, and remember watching the coverage from indy. looks like the 18z NAM came in with a more consolidated low and a track further NW. still quite a bit faster than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Jesus Christ Impressive! I have a concern, even though I know it's only a minor one. MKX has already busted on temps, as it's 42 degrees in Milwaukee when it wasn't expected to dip below 48 or 49. I think it must be because the warm front is slower moving north than they expected; also, the fog kept the daytime temps down near the lake. It shouldn't affect tomorrow's severe, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Impressive! I have a concern, even though I know it's only a minor one. MKX has already busted on temps, as it's 42 degrees in Milwaukee when it wasn't expected to dip below 48 or 49. I think it must be because the warm front is slower moving north than they expected; also, the fog kept the daytime temps down near the lake. It shouldn't affect tomorrow's severe, correct? The marine layer held strong through most of the day, my temp has risen over the past hour as the lake winds weaken. Temps up in MKE will rise overnight. As long as the storms in Iowa/Minn don't congeal into a monster MCS and take a hard right turn, tomorrow will feature plenty of sun and little to stop temps from hitting the low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The marine layer held strong through most of the day, my temp has risen over the past hour as the lake winds weaken. Temps up in MKE will rise overnight. As long as the storms in Iowa/Minn don't congeal into a monster MCS and take a hard right turn, tomorrow will feature plenty of sun and little to stop temps from hitting the low 80s. MKX is expecting the storms to hit the CWA anyway, so they are predicting a big outbreak tomorrow even with convection expected overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Impressive! I have a concern, even though I know it's only a minor one. MKX has already busted on temps, as it's 42 degrees in Milwaukee when it wasn't expected to dip below 48 or 49. I think it must be because the warm front is slower moving north than they expected; also, the fog kept the daytime temps down near the lake. It shouldn't affect tomorrow's severe, correct? Don't worry. I see this every spring. The day before the warm front they over-forecast the temperatures.... once that warm front blasts through, the sky is the limit. Happens each year. Don't understand why they don't just trim temps whenever a lake component is forecast to hold. Bust a lot on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 MKX is expecting the storms to hit the CWA anyway, so they are predicting a big outbreak tomorrow even with convection expected overnight. Convection will clear by morning... may even lay out outflow boundaries which will HELP us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The 00z NAM really isn't wanting to break out that much convection across the southern part of WI and northern IL. It's probably just being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 More OT: the NWS site seems to be having issues.... I wonder if it's because all of the traffic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 00z NAM is on a whole new level of ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Just glancing at the 0z NAM - get the impressive from the NAM that there could be bust concerns. Certainly raises some questions on the development up north. Interesting run. Not sure it breaks anything out at all up north Some storms in NW Wisconsin that are very close to the surface low but that's about it until a squall line looking thing develops over S MO/N ARK eventually up into central ILL and moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Just glancing at the 0z NAM - get the impressive from the NAM that there could be bust concerns. Certainly raises some questions on the development up north. Interesting run. Not sure it breaks anything out at all up north Course at the same time - it may be hinting at less of a squall line threat up north. If a couple of supercells break out - would not be pretty. Interesting run - will prob cause some gnashing of teeth among forecasters. Just glancing but not sure why the NAM is doing that. Hi-res models should have an edge as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Some storms in NW Wisconsin that are very close to the surface low but that's about it until a squall line looking thing develops over S MO/N ARK eventually up into central ILL and moves east. Is this the first major model run in the last few days that hasn't had anything break out in either S. Wisconsin or N. Illinois? If so, I wouldn't worry too much as I don't see how this is possible with all the ingredients supposedly being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Sig Tor probs have come down substantially. However, I would not let my guard down up there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Except for some isolated area in Northern Wisconsin, everyone West of I-75, North of I-80, West of I-55 and North Of I-70 gets nothing (not even rain showers) It looks as if the cap was stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Except for some isolated area in Northern Wisconsin, everyone West of I-75, North of I-80, West of I-55 and North Of I-70 gets nothing (not even rain showers) It looks as if the cap was stronger. I think you mean OVERWHELMING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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