janetjanet998 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 since it's going to to a very active weekend I thought that it may be better to make a sperate thread for Sunday because: 1) it will get confusing to seperate sundays forecast posts from Saturdays current posts 2) with over 600 post arleady Part 2 will likley be started anyway so to start things off: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IA WI..SE MN AND NW IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER TO MID-MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS... ...TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ..UPPER MS VALLEY AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO IA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S F SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CELLS WILL FIRST DEVELOP IN NRN IA AND SE MN AND MOVE INTO NRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF A SFC LOW AND ALONG A WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60 KT AND 0-3 STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 250 TO 350 M2/S2. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WITH CELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN IA NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL WI BY EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS. A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS MOVES ENEWD ACROSS WI. SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN AND WRN IL WHERE THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE A TORNADO...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE THREAT DURING THE EVENING. ..OZARKS/SRN PLAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY AS A WELL-DEVELOPED 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS. THE JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM NCNTRL MO SWWD ACROSS NW AR INTO ERN OK AND ECNTRL TX ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT THE FAVORED MODE COULD BE LINEAR...FORCED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE FAVORED THREAT WITH LINE-SEGMENTS THAT PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT GREATEST FROM NW AR NEWD INTO WCNTRL IL WHERE A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IS LOCATED. IF A SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET THEN AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS ERN AND SRN MO. ..ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY SUNDAY. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM LOWER MI SEWD ACROSS OH INTO WV. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I guess we are seeing warm and cold front tor probs here according to the 00z GFS. NAM has strongest threat farther north. Who would have thought we would probably have our first high risk on April 10 up north in WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 From LaCrosse AFD ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ROUND 2...AS MAIN SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO MINNESOTA. FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND AFTER DISCUSSION WITH SPC THERE IS A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG TRACK TORNADOES IN VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 300 M2/S2. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE GENESIS AREA OF SUPERCELLS IN THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN SLIDING EASTWARD. NONE THE LESS THIS COULD BECOME A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. HIGHER END PROBABILITIES PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. From Milwaukee SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE EASTWARD MOVING PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KNOTS...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 MODERATE RISK WITH HATCHED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE LOOKS GOOD...AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ALL IN ALL...A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 From DVN AFD. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS REMAINS NEED TO LOWER POPS BYANOTHER ADDITIONAL 10 PERCENT OR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALCALCULATIONS SUGGEST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION TO FIRE AT 20Z ORLATER AND MOVE NE AT 40-50+ MPH. THIS WITH PW/S OF ~1.25" TO LIMITRAIN AMOUNTS TO LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NARROW SWATHS NEAR AN INCH INTHE VERY STRONGEST STORMS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 83 TO 87FRANGE WITH DEWPOINTS OF 61-64F FOR SBCAPE OF 1600-2400 J/KG. INGENERAL...A CONVECTIVE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM LAST SUNDAY APPEARS INTHE OFFING WITH LARGE HAIL AOA GOLF BALLS REASONABLE WITH SOMEPOTENTIAL TOWARD BASE BALLS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH S-SW WINDSOF 20 TO 35+ MPH AND A BIT MORE BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A BIT HIGHER RISKOF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADO RISK ISMARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN SUB CLOUD LAYER. NOEVIDENCE OF A WAVE ATTM THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR BACKING...THIS OBVIOUSLYA CONCERN TO MONITOR AS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND NO DOUBT FURTHERPHASING QUESTIONS MAY LINGER. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS OF .25 TO .75AGAIN TO BE ON TAP BUT WITH LARGER AREAS OF LIMITED RAINFALL AGAINDUE TO LOWER COVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 eek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 From DVN AFD. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS REMAINS NEED TO LOWER POPS BYANOTHER ADDITIONAL 10 PERCENT OR MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALCALCULATIONS SUGGEST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION TO FIRE AT 20Z ORLATER AND MOVE NE AT 40-50+ MPH. THIS WITH PW/S OF ~1.25" TO LIMITRAIN AMOUNTS TO LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NARROW SWATHS NEAR AN INCH INTHE VERY STRONGEST STORMS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 83 TO 87FRANGE WITH DEWPOINTS OF 61-64F FOR SBCAPE OF 1600-2400 J/KG. INGENERAL...A CONVECTIVE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM LAST SUNDAY APPEARS INTHE OFFING WITH LARGE HAIL AOA GOLF BALLS REASONABLE WITH SOMEPOTENTIAL TOWARD BASE BALLS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH S-SW WINDSOF 20 TO 35+ MPH AND A BIT MORE BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A BIT HIGHER RISKOF STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADO RISK ISMARGINAL DUE TO LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN SUB CLOUD LAYER. NOEVIDENCE OF A WAVE ATTM THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR BACKING...THIS OBVIOUSLYA CONCERN TO MONITOR AS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND NO DOUBT FURTHERPHASING QUESTIONS MAY LINGER. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS OF .25 TO .75AGAIN TO BE ON TAP BUT WITH LARGER AREAS OF LIMITED RAINFALL AGAINDUE TO LOWER COVERAGE. DVN has been very inconsistent with their AFD's for a few days now - the morning AFD's will downplay the threat and then the afternoon ones will come out hyping it up. This has been going on since Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I am glad good rain is coming for us. We need the rain to keep things saturated in the forest to prevent fires. Our snowfall was 50 inches below normal this winter and all of it was lake effect. Lake Effect doesn't contain the water content compared to synoptic snow. We were dry before winter came. Also, the good rain will wash off the tons of road salt on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 DVN has been very inconsistent with their AFD's for a few days now - the morning AFD's will downplay the threat and then the afternoon ones will come out hyping it up. This has been going on since Wednesday. Yeah I have seen the same thing with both GRR and DTX over here, Morning talks it up and Afternoon talks it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Hmm... when was the last high risk in WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Hmm... when was the last high risk in WI? June 7th 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 eek The only "kiss of death" could be Dr. Forbes giving a TorCon of 7/10. Either way WISH I WAS there....guess my 92 mph gust the other day will have to suffice as I can pretend it was from a TOR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 As I posted in the other thread, I understand the hesitancy to chase in the Driftless area of SW Wisconsin, but maybe those nearby should consider chasing in South Central or Southeast Wisconsin (east of Madison). That area looks to be primed in early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 had to post this...an discussion Gilbert from NIU sent out on our codfcst email list The new day 2 for Sunday is just scary. SPC is flat out saying that a high risk is likely, and a tornado outbreak is possible (ya think?). I went with a high risk of severe on a day 3 forecast today. I've never done that before. While this is very "synoptically evident", the mesoscale features cannot be determined at this time, of course. I was going to go with at least a moderate, but bumped to an extraordinary high risk so early because: 1. Synoptically evident 2. Models have been very consistent, and doing well 3. The models were slightly underdoing the moisture and instability (the 0Z runs aren't; they're now up to snuff) 4. All the ingredients are going to be there. Period. HOW all the ingredients pan out in who gets a tornado and who gets large hail, etc have yet to be seen, but wow. I pray that God would have mercy on southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, much of Wisconsin (with lakes still frozen over as of this afternoon from north of Madison to the UP of Michigan), and northern IL. I'm not sure what to do yet. Chasing supercells with tornadoes moving at 50-60 MPH in terrain that fairly quickly gets nasty east of Waterloo is not what I call fun. But when you look at that mid-level dry punch coming into DSM from the southwest late Sunday afternoon and pointing at Waterloo, you have to do a double take. We could...and should...see a dryline bulge in eastern Iowa on Sunday. Wrap your brain around that concept for a few moments and see how fast your head spins. These systems usually produce big...and I expect nothing less from this system. Jeff Craven from WFO MKX was noting an analog to a similar system back in 1981 that produced a nasty EF-4 *anticyclonic* tornado in West Bend, WI at midnight, killing 3 people. Not saying we're going to have EF-4s Sunday night up in Wisconsin at midnight, but I'm just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megaforce Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I am going to be sitting on top of Blue Mounds (400 feet above the surrounding terrain) Sunday. You are able to see 25-30 miles in all directions and it is located west of Mt Horeb and along hwy 18-151. I will be trying out my new i phone with radar scope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I am going to be sitting on top of Blue Mounds (400 feet above the surrounding terrain) Sunday. You are able to see 25-30 miles in all directions and it is located west of Mt Horeb and along hwy 18-151. I will be trying out my new i phone with radar scope. Good luck and stay safe! Sounds exhilarating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 12 gfs just came in stronger and farther northwest with the LP. looks like it has it pegged at 985mb over st. cloud by 7pm sun. if we can stay in the warm sector and delay the FROPA enough, the cities may be in play, but i'm not convinced that'll be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Craven's mentioning the 1981 West Bend tornado, eh? Guess I'll have to go down Memory Lane with him. Bunch of us were out having fun the night of April 3-4th, 1981. To be 16 or 17 and have your license and for it to be 70 degrees on an early April night is an irresistible combination. We were about 7 miles away from that tornado when it hit. We knew we might get a good storm, but had no idea how close we were to a BIG problem. Probably about 15-20 of us were in a car caravan, waiting to see if this guy's shed was open and if he had beer to share. And as luck would have it, we were up on a high ridge. When we got blasted by (RFD maybe?) we didn't have a clue, except that it was scary. Nobody (even me, the confirmed wx geek of the bunch) knew we had watches and/or warnings out. We never saw a tornado, and I don't recall there being much lightning. Just knew the west side of everybody's cars were getting pelted with dirt and gravel. It passed in a few minutes, we got out, went in and partied. Then when we got home a while later, a lot of our parents were up, wondering if we knew about the tornado that had hit West Bend. Remember, this was all before cell phones, 24-hour Breaking News!! and the like. It ended up being a very big deal; everyone around here has a story. Now to contribute something useful to this thread, I'll type up where you can chase in WI, with decent views and road options. If you take the current SREF 50% bullseye verbatim (insert standard disclaimers), there could be a real decent chance of a viewable tube in WI tomorrow aft/eve. Stand by for my slant on where you can chase in WI without pulling your hair out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Slight trend toward things hanging on a bit later. (edited to add 3z run frame) 3z run 9z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Craven's mentioning the 1981 West Bend tornado, eh? Guess I'll have to go down Memory Lane with him. Bunch of us were out having fun the night of April 3-4th, 1981. To be 16 or 17 and have your license and for it to be 70 degrees on an early April night is an irresistible combination. We were about 7 miles away from that tornado when it hit. We knew we might get a good storm, but had no idea how close we were to a BIG problem. Probably about 15-20 of us were in a car caravan, waiting to see if this guy's shed was open and if he had beer to share. And as luck would have it, we were up on a high ridge. When we got blasted by (RFD maybe?) we didn't have a clue, except that it was scary. Nobody (even me, the confirmed wx geek of the bunch) knew we had watches and/or warnings out. We never saw a tornado, and I don't recall there being much lightning. Just knew the west side of everybody's cars were getting pelted with dirt and gravel. It passed in a few minutes, we got out, went in and partied. Then when we got home a while later, a lot of our parents were up, wondering if we knew about the tornado that had hit West Bend. Remember, this was all before cell phones, 24-hour Breaking News!! and the like. It ended up being a very big deal; everyone around here has a story. Now to contribute something useful to this thread, I'll type up where you can chase in WI, with decent views and road options. If you take the current SREF 50% bullseye verbatim (insert standard disclaimers), there could be a real decent chance of a viewable tube in WI tomorrow aft/eve. Stand by for my slant on where you can chase in WI without pulling your hair out. Based on the SREFs, the area bounded by West Bend, Waukesha, down to the Illinois border, Beloit, Madison, up through maybe Stevens Point and then back south again will be prime territory. I hope most cars are off I94 b/w Madison and Milwaukee by evening (except chasers, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 I laugh when out-of-staters automatically discount chasing in WI. It's like when I say that the state of "Misery" is useless for chasing. A lot of Missouri is bad but it's not 100% hopeless, everywhere. (altho navigators who never got carsick before in their lives and ended up puking on Missouri chases might dispute that, LOL) And sometimes us chasers are just going to go where the storms are best, regardless. We all get that. But, if you want to have better visibility and road options in WI, I suggest you zero in on the areas east, northeast and north of Madison. I'm sure other folks could chime in here, and I hope they do. All things equal, I'd want to chase in an area of south-central and central WI bounded by: Madison on the SW, over east to a bit west of Waukesha (talking north of I-94.) From Waukesha continuing north up to Fond du Lac and Oshkosh and Appleton, on the west side of Hwy 45 and Lake Winnebago. Then going WNW to about Stevens Point and WI Rapids, basically along and south of Hwy 10. From Wisconsin Rapids, going south, just stay east of the Wisconsin River, and back south toward Madison again. Most places inside that irregular circle are decent chase territory. The person who spoke about the driftless area -- I liked their strategy of being on top of something like Blue Mounds. Many places in SW WI have awesome vistas. There's merit for simply finding one of those places and hoping like heck one of these ropes hauling azz comes within your view. One last thing, this is coming from a 46 year-old. I know chasers chase. BTDT. But WI isn't West Texas, Oklahoma or KS. There's more people, more Sunday drivers, more farm equipment and critters, too. Do your best to drive sanely and defensively. Don't be the headline in Monday's news. As a lifelong Badger, I thank you in advance. EDIT -- 11:40 central -- I see while I was taking my usual 1000 words pace, wisconsinwx summed it up perfectly. Plus he/she is right that the area south of Madison down to Monroe, Beloit and then south to Rockford, IL is good chase territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 You can just feel the anticipation by the lack of posts on this board, waiting for the midday update for the SWODY2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 You can just feel the anticipation by the lack of posts on this board, waiting for the midday update for the SWODY2. We are hosting 40+ people for a birthday party tomorrow from 1 - 6 p.m.. House cleaning has been ongoing but we need to kick it in to high gear or be stuck with it all tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, my wife says I should not dare scare people away early by my "storm talk." I try not to overplay but I think the wording through local media outlets will have already informed many anywayMany will be here from Chicago. Assuming these storms fire to the west, at least they'll be heading away and not into them on the way home. I'm also hoping I'll be able to get out of town west or northwest before things come in (after 6 of course ), and that it happens before dusk. The good news is both of those directions is largely flat and open from here. A fascinating lead up no doubt for the region. On the heals of the epic lead up to the GHog Blizzard as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 We are hosting 40+ people for a birthday party tomorrow from 1 - 6 p.m.. House cleaning has been ongoing but we need to kick it in to high gear or be stuck with it all tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, my wife says I should not dare scare people away early by my "storm talk." I try not to overplay but I think the wording through local media outlets will have already informed many anywayMany will be here from Chicago. Assuming these storms fire to the west, at least they'll be heading away and not into them on the way home. I'm also hoping I'll be able to get out of town west or northwest before things come in (after 6 of course ), and that it happens before dusk. The good news is both of those directions is largely flat and open from here. A fascinating lead up no doubt for the region. On the heals of the epic lead up to the GHog Blizzard as well. Yeah, any major severe weather outbreak we get up here before May or June is rare, and perhaps it will be a sign of what this summer has in store? Anyways, after hearing the GFS shifted about 60 miles northwest at the 12z run, I guess I can't say it's a certainty yet, but it's looking like from Madison to LaCrosse over to Green Bay will be primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 SREF starting to hint at parameters hanging on a bit longer 3z run 9z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megaforce Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Dr. Forbes is given southern Wisconsin a TorCon of 8/10 now up from 7/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Dr. Forbes is given southern Wisconsin a TorCon of 8/10 now up from 7/10. I noticed that, though TorCon does not seem to be too popular around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Dr. Forbes is given southern Wisconsin a TorCon of 8/10 now up from 7/10. That's pretty high. I think the highest he ever gave was a 9 on the Yazoo City day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Another day, another KLOT live weather briefing. Coming up at 1 p.m. . . http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=lot&product=pns&issuedby=LOT&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1629Z SAT APR 09 2011 A GOES-EAST RSO WILL BE IN OPERATION FROM 9/1644Z TO 10/0344Z TO HELP WITH SVR WX OPS. $$ SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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