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Dr. Forbes and Tor-Con. And SPC probs


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Are the SPC probs (15%, hatched, etc.) generated by a program, or by a forecaster using best judgement and all available data and models and ensembles.

And more importantly, using a 50 mile radus instead of a 25 mile radius, which increases the numbers by a factor of 4 if everyone had the exact same idea, has anyone verified how close Dr. Forbes 'TorCon' is to the SPC probabilities? Does a 4/10 usually equate to an SPC 10%.

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Are the SPC probs (15%, hatched, etc.) generated by a program, or by a forecaster using best judgement and all available data and models and ensembles.

forecaster subjectively

And more importantly, using a 50 mile radus instead of a 25 mile radius, which increases the numbers by a factor of 4 if everyone had the exact same idea, has anyone verified how close Dr. Forbes 'TorCon' is to the SPC probabilities? Does a 4/10 usually equate to an SPC 10%.

don't know, nice guy though

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