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4/11 torch/severe wx threat


LVblizzard

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MD/CNTRL AND ERN PA/CNTRL AND ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 112243Z - 112345Z A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM MD NWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NY. GIVEN EXPECTED TRENDS AT THE MOMENT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS LED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE REACHED MD/ERN PA...AND MID TO UPPER 50S FARTHER N. HOWEVER...APPEARANCE OF GENERALLY STRATUS CLOUDS...LACK OF TOWERING CU/CONVECTIVE TYPE CLOUD STRUCTURES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNTRL NY INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STILL REMAINS. PER RECENT WV IMAGERY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND IMPLIED UPPER ASCENT STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND GIVEN NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING...MAY HAVE ALSO LIMITED MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL NY SWD INTO ERN PA THEN SWWD THROUGH WV MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHERE CINH IS WEAKER. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE/HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT DMGG WINDS.

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Highs through 8PM:

TTN 86

DYL 82

PNE 83

WRI 86

VAY 85

LOM 82

NEL 87

UKT 82

PHL 83

MJX 84

BLM 82

PTW 86

XLL 85

MMU 84

ABE 84

EWR 87

CDW 85

12N 83

TEB 84

NYC 81

ACY 78

ILG 81

LGA 75

MQS 79

JFK 61

RDG 85

MIV 76

MPO 74

FWN 82

LNS 85

HPN 77

FRG 59

DOV 80

AVP 80

WWD 73

MGJ 82

APG 81

SWF 81

MUI 86

ISP 58

GED 79

ESN 79

W29 77

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81F and turning on the A/C here on Mt. Villanova. Code red for girls now walking around in scarce amounts of clothing.

you should have seen west campus during the march or april heat wave back in 02 or 03 i can't remember....I was living in the west campus apartments then...we had baby pools out in the court yard to cool off...the scenery was breathtaking.

That's my other sense that's tingling right now... B)

I miss college

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An intense flash of lightning briefly knocked out the power here.

Edit: Everything, even streetlights, were out, and some of my Facebook friends a few blocks away are saying that power is still out. I wonder what the lightning hit to cause that...

Lee's tripod!!!

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Car thermometer read 86 and it hasn't lied to me yet. :sun:

81F and turning on the A/C here on Mt. Villanova. Code red for girls now walking around in scarce amounts of clothing.

first days of spring weather are awesome...short shorts and mini skirts after a winter full of sweat pants and jeans (the latter can be pretty nice though):wub:

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Once upon a time,

long, long ago,

there was a thing known as blue skies,

and a bright object known as the sun did actually shine.

When will this end? More rain today, tonight, and tomorrow morning...to the tune of about another inch. I'm so sick and tired of the mud I have to deal with at my job as the road never seems to get to dry out. It's a mess, and with each event, it turns into more of a quagmire.

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That storm in Maryland about to cross into Sussex County actually has a tiny bit of mid-level rotation - enough to trigger a false TVS anyway

Also tops to 39 and a weak updraft, as there is a hail marker on it (even if it is only 0.25" and VIL maxes out at 30)

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