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4/11 torch/severe wx threat


LVblizzard

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Finally we're breaking out of this cool and wet pattern with a day of torch and a few days of warmth. Today's Euro would have 80s for everybody if not for a mysterious cooldown near the coast. The DGEX actually does have 80s for everybody while the GFS gets to the mid-upper 70s. 850 temps should reach above 15, and the sunny weather should help the warmth settle in more easily.

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Also, as a side note, please attach or host images whenever possible so the images in this thread are preserved.

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Nice. Now if only that weather can also happen on Saturday 4/16 and Sunday 4/17 (in which I'll be spending a lot of time outside). Heck, I'll just take rain-free and temps in the 60's.

Thankfully that is pretty far out in time so the models will change but last nights ECM for that time period was wet!

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from SPC this morning:

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A POWERFUL

UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MODELS MOVE THIS

FEATURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE

SYSTEM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN

SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH

MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MOIST AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE.

If we surge into the mid-80s, storms seem likely Monday evening.

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With a dominant SW flow, what would cause temps to be in the 50s across northern NJ? Can someone explain this to me?

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well the nam actually pops northern nj into the 60s. To answer your question as to why its colder, my only guess is because the wind flow is from the south to SSE from about 15z on, which has somewhat of a flow off the del bay and ocean but not that direct. Sw flow would be a total wind over land.

f75.gif

barba.png

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we really need the f'n inversion to break so we can torch on Monday...if we don't get into solid sunshine by 10-11 AM it's going to be tough to torch...

FWIW, the GFS is now holding up the front so we'll have a couple of crappy days TUE and even WED. :axe: :axe:

This spring has been absolutely sh---ty.

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From day 2 disco:

WHILE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS A QUESTION...VERY

STRONG/QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY/WSWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE

TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED/DAMAGING WIND EVENT

AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE

FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS LIKELIHOOD...HAVE INCREASED

THE SEVERE PROBABILITY TO 30% MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN

CREST IN PA/NY. EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO

THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE

ATLANTIC-INFLUENCED AIR IN NEW ENGLAND AND INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST.

...KY/TN/MS/AL AND VICINITY...

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