LVblizzard Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Finally we're breaking out of this cool and wet pattern with a day of torch and a few days of warmth. Today's Euro would have 80s for everybody if not for a mysterious cooldown near the coast. The DGEX actually does have 80s for everybody while the GFS gets to the mid-upper 70s. 850 temps should reach above 15, and the sunny weather should help the warmth settle in more easily. Also, as a side note, please attach or host images whenever possible so the images in this thread are preserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 European @ 12 Z shows a persistent onshore flow which is why temperatures along the coast are in the 60s and the warmer temperatures in the 70s are inland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 70+? --Signs up-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 does the euro have showers/storms monday night like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 This time of year you need a decent off-shore flow for the coast to get to into the 80s. A SSW flow won't cut it, even SW is marginal in some areas, and no matter what, if its not strong, it'll sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 does the euro have showers/storms monday night like the GFS? Moves precipitation in between 00z and 06z tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Moves precipitation in between 00z and 06z tuesday... Timing definitely looks better than Tuesday's event for strong storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 70+? --Signs up-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 IMO, it'll hit 80 in E PA on Monday. NJ will have a tougher time getting there though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 pollen attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Nice. Now if only that weather can also happen on Saturday 4/16 and Sunday 4/17 (in which I'll be spending a lot of time outside). Heck, I'll just take rain-free and temps in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Nice. Now if only that weather can also happen on Saturday 4/16 and Sunday 4/17 (in which I'll be spending a lot of time outside). Heck, I'll just take rain-free and temps in the 60's. Thankfully that is pretty far out in time so the models will change but last nights ECM for that time period was wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 85 on Monday in PHL? If we can get a bit more W than S on the wind trajectory at PHL, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. I bet PTW will get close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I would rather have 90's then rain. I believe if we can get rid of this rainy pattern we can see some serious prolonged heat, If it ain't snowing then let's bring on the heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 from SPC this morning: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MOIST AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. If we surge into the mid-80s, storms seem likely Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 With a dominant SW flow, what would cause temps to be in the 50s across northern NJ? Can someone explain this to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 That has to be some sort of error. MOS is in the upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 With a dominant SW flow, what would cause temps to be in the 50s across northern NJ? Can someone explain this to me? well the nam actually pops northern nj into the 60s. To answer your question as to why its colder, my only guess is because the wind flow is from the south to SSE from about 15z on, which has somewhat of a flow off the del bay and ocean but not that direct. Sw flow would be a total wind over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 last night's NAM has 80+ for much of the region on Monday. Problem solved. (now can we just get a bit warmer on Sunday instead of having drizzle issues and temps in the low/mid 60's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 12 Z ECM is low to mid 70s for the region for monday at 18 Z off its 12 Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 we really need the f'n inversion to break so we can torch on Monday...if we don't get into solid sunshine by 10-11 AM it's going to be tough to torch... FWIW, the GFS is now holding up the front so we'll have a couple of crappy days TUE and even WED. :axe: This spring has been absolutely sh---ty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 From day 2 disco: WHILE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS A QUESTION...VERY STRONG/QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY/WSWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED/DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS LIKELIHOOD...HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBABILITY TO 30% MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST IN PA/NY. EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE ATLANTIC-INFLUENCED AIR IN NEW ENGLAND AND INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ...KY/TN/MS/AL AND VICINITY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 euro is agreeing with the gfs on a long drawn out cool rainy period from tues into wed night, with 1-1.75 for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Over the next 10 days the ECM has a good part of eastern PA in 3-4 inches of liquid ... General 2 + across the whole state of PA .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 euro is agreeing with the gfs on a long drawn out cool rainy period from tues into wed night, with 1-1.75 for the region. Yep...this week long torch is going down the toliet...welcome to nina spring. Next weekend the euro also has a heavy rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 FWIW, the GFS is now holding up the front so we'll have a couple of crappy days TUE and even WED. :axe:This spring has been absolutely sh---ty. Oh fantastic, I was looking forward to my birthday being a nice wx day This better change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 wouldn't be shocked to see some snow tues night/wed in the highest elev of the pocs again, esp at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 wouldn't be shocked to see some snow tues night/wed in the highest elev of the pocs again, esp at night Yeah it looks like there's an area below 0C 850s behind the cut-off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 wouldn't be shocked to see some snow tues night/wed in the highest elev of the pocs again, esp at night Yeah it looks like there's an area below 0C 850s behind the cut-off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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