Tornado Girl Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Friday could see a severe outbreak from the Ohio Valley across to the Mid Atlantic. But, It's shaping up that Monday looks like the day we will see a fairly severe thunderstorm threat up this way, as a strong low track thru the Great Lakes into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 The Sunday - Monday event is going to be another big severe event........This time the moisture will be farther north than is was for the past Mon- Tue event. It will have a ton of energy with it....Things will kick off Sunday Morning in W OK, AR, and MO. it will push thru the Ohio valley Sunday night before slamming thru NYS and PA on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Looks to have some promise. One possible negative is the system's track and the possibility that it may be occluding and weakening as it tracks across ONT/QUE. Fcst H850 and H300 jets appear to be somewhat favorably aligned favoring some possibly strong storms along across CNY- & E-Cntl NY. Its still 5.5 days away so obviously things can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Looks to have some promise. One possible negative is the system's track and the possibility that it may be occluding and weakening as it tracks across ONT/QUE. Fcst H850 and H300 jets appear to be somewhat favorably aligned favoring some possibly strong storms along across CNY- & E-Cntl NY. Its still 5.5 days away so obviously things can change I thnk Western NYS has a good shot.........But you're right it's still a ways out....we will see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 While probably not severe I think there might be the potential for some low-top convection on Tuesday beneath cold pool aloft perhaps causing some low top small-"hailers" and brief wet downbursts (below severe wind criteria?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 I would like to see this speed up a bit on the models....right not it's coming in to late if we want to see any thunderstorms...One more thing I'm disappointed with this morning is the LLS is not looking as robust as it was. Sunday is still looking like a good severe day for the area around Illinois and Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I would like to see this speed up a bit on the models....right not it's coming in to late if we want to see any thunderstorms...One more thing I'm disappointed with this morning is the LLS is not looking as robust as it was. Sunday is still looking like a good severe day for the area around Illinois and Indiana. Let's organize a chase! You're right though. System is slowing down. EC and UK have a good 2 front signature. One moves thru Monday Night, 2nd(ary) cold fropa Tues afternoon. I still think Tues PM could be fun with some sct'd strong convection (low-top stuff) small hail primary threat. I like the lowering WBZ levels LC and marginal high shear. (Hodo's are long and exhibit a slight hook (for ALB)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I have already been through my first line of severe. ....while driving up I-75 near the FL/GA line on Wednesday of last week. It was intense and at times I could barely see 50 feet in front of the car in torrential rain. Then 30 hours later I was in +SN in WV. More to my liking. While probably not severe I think there might be the potential for some low-top convection on Tuesday beneath cold pool aloft perhaps causing some low top small-"hailers" and brief wet downbursts (below severe wind criteria?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Sunday is looking good some severe weather in Kansas,Wisconsin, and Iowa....As for Monday it's looking very good for Illinois, Kentucky, and Ohio Valley....As for here, there is still some differences amongst model guidance on the timing of the system coming through . If we see warm temps as forecasted Monday we most likely will see some thunderstorms. As far as severe weather, there will be a lot of wind shear, the problem is there won't be much in the way of instability. Right now...it doesn't look great for severe weather in Northern and Eastern NYS....but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The 12z NAM... and to a lesser extent the 12z GFS... look(s) pretty tasty for organized severe convection on Monday Afternoon / Evening across W & C NY. The 12z NAM perameters are pretty solid all the way around... especially for this time of year in the NEUS. I would fully expect the SPC to include the above portion of Upstate in a D3 Slight Risk if current trends hold on 0z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Overall, the 0z NAM looks to have toned it down just a bit from the 12z run, but still worthy of a Day 3 Slight Risk IMO. Looks to be a fairly high-sheared environment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 The 12z NAM... and to a lesser extent the 12z GFS... look(s) pretty tasty for organized severe convection on Monday Afternoon / Evening across W & C NY. The 12z NAM perameters are pretty solid all the way around... especially for this time of year in the NEUS. I would fully expect the SPC to include the above portion of Upstate in a D3 Slight Risk if current trends hold on 0z runs... Overall, the 0z NAM looks to have toned it down just a bit from the 12z run, but still worthy of a Day 3 Slight Risk IMO. Looks to be a fairly high-sheared environment... Here we go... DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...ERN GREAT LAKES/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MS VALLEY MONDAY AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET...AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE OH VALLEY WITH THE MODELS MOVING THIS LINE EWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN NY AND WRN PA AT 21Z MONDAY SHOW SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60 TO 70 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...30 TO 40 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PREDOMINANT THREAT. 500 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C COULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. ..BROYLES.. 04/09/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Things are starting to go the way we thought they would.... Monday afternoon will be fun..... MLCAPEs will be decent, it looks to be 500-600 J/Kg, jet support will be excellent. also we will have strong speed shear. But, I would like to see more in the way of directional shear, right now it looks to be rather weak.This kind of set-up supports a small hail threat....However, if we can get a stronger directional shear.....Things could get very interesting.....But at least we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SQUALL-LINE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE SWWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY...WRN PA...ERN OH AND CNTRL KY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED AS SFC TEMPS WARM. THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUGGESTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY OCCUR WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS...THE GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 04/10/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I'm not very impressed by anything occurring in New York state, not to say they won't see thunderstorms or maybe an isolated severe cell or two, but I think the better potential exists further south across the state of PA. SPC SREF probs across PA are fairly beefy on severe wx potential tomorrow. Across PA there lays a better chance of having maximized instability to go along with maximized shear and strong lift. SPC SREF indicating as much as 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCape/ML cape as well as MUcape values as high as 1500-2000 J/KG and LI values in the -2C to -4C range. Helicity values are also forecasted to increase as the afternoon goes on as well with as much as 150-200 m2s2 of 0-1km helicity and 200-250 m2s2 of 0-3km helicity. Some of the valley locations may also see an enhanced LL flow if the surface wind direction aligns more in a due southerly direction. Some of the forecast soundings are kind of interesting...models do show a bit of dry air aloft, some soundings even have a bit of an inverted-v look to them. The dry air aloft may really help to enhance the potential for damaging winds, especially with winds aligned in a more unidirectional direction aloft. Something also interesting to note more for eastern PA is some forecast soundings hint at the potential for somewhat of a very weak EML look. The one thing I really don't like, however, is the fact that the sfc low associated with the system will be weakening throughout the afternoon, and the cold front is really not all that potent. This is one reason to explain the possible decrease in mid-level lapse rates as the day goes on as CAA in the mid-levels will be very slow or even halted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Things are starting to go the way we thought they would.... Monday afternoon will be fun..... MLCAPEs will be decent, it looks to be 500-600 J/Kg, jet support will be excellent. also we will have strong speed shear. But, I would like to see more in the way of directional shear, right now it looks to be rather weak.This kind of set-up supports a small hail threat....However, if we can get a stronger directional shear.....Things could get very interesting.....But at least we have a shot. I'm not very impressed by anything occurring in New York state, not to say they won't see thunderstorms or maybe an isolated severe cell or two, but I think the better potential exists further south across the state of PA. SPC SREF probs across PA are fairly beefy on severe wx potential tomorrow. Across PA there lays a better chance of having maximized instability to go along with maximized shear and strong lift. SPC SREF indicating as much as 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCape/ML cape as well as MUcape values as high as 1500-2000 J/KG and LI values in the -2C to -4C range. Helicity values are also forecasted to increase as the afternoon goes on as well with as much as 150-200 m2s2 of 0-1km helicity and 200-250 m2s2 of 0-3km helicity. Some of the valley locations may also see an enhanced LL flow if the surface wind direction aligns more in a due southerly direction. Some of the forecast soundings are kind of interesting...models do show a bit of dry air aloft, some soundings even have a bit of an inverted-v look to them. The dry air aloft may really help to enhance the potential for damaging winds, especially with winds aligned in a more unidirectional direction aloft. Something also interesting to note more for eastern PA is some forecast soundings hint at the potential for somewhat of a very weak EML look. The one thing I really don't like, however, is the fact that the sfc low associated with the system will be weakening throughout the afternoon, and the cold front is really not all that potent. This is one reason to explain the possible decrease in mid-level lapse rates as the day goes on as CAA in the mid-levels will be very slow or even halted. To me threat is quite good across North 1/2 of PA and W & C NY (esp. along and west of a MSS-UCA-BGM) line. Forecast soundings for KBUF and KPIT show "fat" CAPE loading AOB ~ 750 hPa a PIT and AOB ~ 800 hPA and then dry V soundings aloft. LL speed shear esp on KBUF morning sounding is VERY strong. KBUF's forecast hodo would support some discrete cells and the forecast BRN's are in the range for possible supercells (near 12). Paul, while what you noted is good and true. I think NYS could do a lot better than PA as they will be closer to the better of the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 To me threat is quite good across North 1/2 of PA and W & C NY (esp. along and west of a MSS-UCA-BGM) line. Forecast soundings for KBUF and KPIT show "fat" CAPE loading AOB ~ 750 hPa a PIT and AOB ~ 800 hPA and then dry V soundings aloft. LL speed shear esp on KBUF morning sounding is VERY strong. KBUF's forecast hodo would support some discrete cells and the forecast BRN's are in the range for possible supercells (near 12). I should have mentioned I thought extreme western NY looked favorable as well but I'm not so sure about central NY. The Buffalo area could certainly see some action. The PIT sounding looked pretty impressive too me, in fact much of central/eastern PA looks very favorable. There could certainly be some discrete development out ahead of a line. Helicity values really increase as the afternoon goes on and this occurs as the instability is maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I just saw your edit... The question I have for much of NYS is will they achieve good enough instability to maintain/support great convective development? While they are much closer to the better dynamics they really aren't too bad across PA but right now it appears much of PA will have a much better combination of instability/dynamics to work with. However, NYS is a very special state...they sometimes are usually able to pull off some great storms even when it may not appear that would be the case. There always seems to be a good deal of boundaries that are in place thanks to lake breezes, old convective boundaries, mountains...there are lots of small-scale factors in NYS that play major roles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Parameters are looking good and like Andy said maybe even a Supercell or two...The CAPE and other factors look fairly impressive in Western NYS. We will have decent speed shear....While tornadoes can't be ruled out this will most likely be a wind and hail event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I should have mentioned I thought extreme western NY looked favorable as well but I'm not so sure about central NY. The Buffalo area could certainly see some action. The PIT sounding looked pretty impressive too me, in fact much of central/eastern PA looks very favorable. There could certainly be some discrete development out ahead of a line. Helicity values really increase as the afternoon goes on and this occurs as the instability is maximized. Good points my friend. Here's a case study done by NWSFO KBGM & STate College. Its a PPT presentation... EDIT: I also think that whatever the convective mode is tomorrow QLCS and/or discrete cells they will be ripping E-ESE quite fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Parameters are looking good and like Andy said maybe even a Supercell or two...The CAPE and other factors look fairly impressive in Western NYS. We will have decent speed shear....While tornadoes can't be ruled out this will most likely be a wind and hail event. Woo Hoo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NY/PA SWWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO MS/AL AND VICINITY... ...ERN OH/NY/PA/WV/MD AND VICINITY... SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS STORMS CROSS ERN OH AND INTO WRN PA/WRN NY TOWARD MIDDAY...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR. WHILE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS A QUESTION...VERY STRONG/QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY/WSWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED/DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS LIKELIHOOD...HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBABILITY TO 30% MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST IN PA/NY. EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE ATLANTIC-INFLUENCED AIR IN NEW ENGLAND AND INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ..GOSS.. 04/10/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Things are starting to go the way we thought they would.... Monday afternoon will be fun..... MLCAPEs will be decent, it looks to be 500-600 J/Kg, jet support will be excellent. also we will have strong speed shear. But, I would like to see more in the way of directional shear, right now it looks to be rather weak.This kind of set-up supports a small hail threat....However, if we can get a stronger directional shear.....Things could get very interesting.....But at least we have a shot. The Goddess on the Tug so wants a belated birthday present from Ma Nature and/or SPC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Will we get enough sun ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'll have to take a look at that study, Andy. Is there a link to it? I REALLY like what I see for some major action across eastern PA tomorrow. The main question I think is do we see any kind of discrete development out ahead of the main line? There is a great deal of speed shear and the directional shear is mostly in the lower 800mb or so. You do have to watch for rotating cells though within the line as well...like what has been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Significant T-Storm winds look to be heading to Oliphant and Sauble Beach Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Will we get enough sun ??? That's the big question........The models are showing cloudy conditions in the morning. Cloud cover or the lack there of will be a major deciding factor on our severe chances. But we do have some things going in our favor, with CAPE forecasted to be 500-1000 J/kg in spots, surface DP will be 55-58, the frontal passage will supply quite a bit of lift, and the upper Level dynamics will be favorable. So if we get enough instability we have a shot. One more thing, with that strong south westerly flow of 50+ kts.... mixing to the surface is a strong possibility in any thunderstorms that do develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Some solid EHI values being printed out on the 0z NAM... particularly from the Central S Tier / Finger Lakes to the Catskills to the Capital District between 18-23z. Going to have to closely monitor any front-running / discrete convection out ahead of the CF for a rogue / brief spin-up. Otherwise, looks to be mainly a straight-line wind threat, with perhaps some marginally severe hail sprinkled in here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Some of these probs on the SPC SREF continue to get beefed up, including the tornadic potential. Indications are still there that eastern PA will see the strongest combination of shear/instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Some classic inverted-v signatures on some of these soundings across PA...definitely more suggestive of damaging winds rather than tornadic activity but any discrete cells will quickly take on supercell characteristics. Some very nice cape profiles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.