Thunderdude Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 SE winds are a killer this time of year near the coast. Hopefully the NAM is overdoing this marine layer and the warmth heads past us. Upton has 40's for LI which is even colder than what the NAM is saying. I think Upton has been having such a cold bias lately and barely in the 50's for the city. The people in there except for Bill Goodman are morons. Of course the NAM has been a real good model but there will be a big temperature contrast last week and week before even with marine layer LI was no colder than the 50's while in the warm sector it was in the 70's and 80's for the city and southwestward. I hope the Euro is right. I want the warm weather for once. I sick of being in the cold air. This is to Upton and to all the models that is giving me the cold runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Snowing in Buffalo http://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcam-elmwood-avenue-panos-restaurant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 the gfs is way too wrapped up with the low in the midwest... it causes the best WAA to occur west of us and thus we rot north of the warm front notice how much weaker the euro is at 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 longer range looks better, but suspect we'll remain in a wetter/stormy pattern as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 wetter seems like the better way to go right now. Check out the radar, I bet not too many people thought it was going to rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 almost every SREF member warm sectors us on wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Starting to drizzle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Im up in west milford, we just had a downpour with one cloud to ground lightning strike and loud bang. Scared the he'll out of me as it was completely unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 wetter seems like the better way to go right now. Check out the radar, I bet not too many people thought it was going to rain tonight. no suspects for any long duration rain events, i think from here on out we slowly dry out thru may as we start to get warmer and warmer each week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Thunderstorm here.. Radar doesn't look too impressive but we are getting some good lightning and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Just planted the tomatoes (mostly hybrid/cherry types that are more adaptable to cooler early-season conditions), but it wasn't exactly pleasant out there with wind-driven rain. -RA 54.1/44 Very gusty winds out there, was mostly a pleasant spring day but has turned nasty as these squalls move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Thunderstorm here.. Radar doesn't look too impressive but we are getting some good lightning and thunder Yup was just driving home.....real quick light show for a few minutes....pretty impressive actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Wow I thought I was seeing things, I saw 2-3 lightning strikes (but no thunder). I thought it was the LIRR sparking but that usually only occurs with ice/snow. Didn't expect it to be lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Big lightning strike and thunder at the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Hail falling at the stadium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 almost every SREF member warm sectors us on wednesday I wondering why does do Upton forecast for eastern half of the area for highs to be only in the 40's where the models differ with whether the area will get into the warm sector or not. That shows Upton has a cold bias. Even the area does on the cool sector most of the area will see 50's with the city getting into the 55-60 range with LI 50-55 F except maybe Eastern LI will struggle to much above 50 F like what happen last Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Here is proof Upton's cold bias forecast. This is for Long Island Tuesday: A chance of rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Northeast wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 40. East wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday: A chance of rain or drizzle, mainly between noon and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Cool bias largely due to MOS hugging, probably. 850s spike to 10-13C on Wednesday, question is, how much sunshine and daytime heating? Full-sun would spike temps to around 80, if not higher, although that is unlikely. At the same time, MOS calling for 50s seems bogus. High bust-potential. I favor a current forecast of highs in the upper 60s to around 70 for the NYC metro area, cooler along the immediate coast and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Cool bias largely due to MOS hugging, probably. 850s spike to 10-13C on Wednesday, question is, how much sunshine and daytime heating? Full-sun would spike temps to around 80, if not higher, although that is unlikely. At the same time, MOS calling for 50s seems bogus. High bust-potential. I favor a current forecast of highs in the upper 60s to around 70 for the NYC metro area, cooler along the immediate coast and LI. I can't believe Upton is calling for highs in the 40's for LI and low 50's for NYC and that is cold bias and notice they have anti-thunderstorm bias too. With this past weekend storm system they didn't put thunderstorms in the forecast until the last minute and the models hinted a day or two before it. My call is at least if the warm front goes near NYC at least temps will go near 60 F for NYC and for near Newark low to mid 60's. For most of LI and immediate coast it will be in the mid 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 last Monday was a good day to remember. I thought I was taking a risk by forecasting 76F for a high up here, actually maxed out at 80 and could have gone higher if we had gotten more sunshine. we'll see what happens!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Another night tonight in the city that feels tropical except its in the upper 50s as opposed to the upper 70s. The sky really had that look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Upton should look at this even though I don't really think severe weather is much of a possibility from the city and eastward due to the strong marine influence that will play a factor on Wednesday and more likely if there is any storms that do come into the area from the city and eastward they will be elevated in nature like they have been this last night and this past week in general. Areas well into NJ and southwestward could get more of the strong to severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 We will have to see how much cloud cover we have..but tomorrow could easily torch more than the models show with the southwest 10m winds and warming H850 temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 We will have to see how much cloud cover we have..but tomorrow could easily torch more than the models show with the southwest 10m winds and warming H850 temperatures. Upton's forecast of 61F seems fair tomorrow for Westchester; 850s start around 0C and warm to near 5C, but cloud cover is clearly approaching the area by 20z when we are generally nearing our afternoon high temperature. I just don't think it's going to be possible to get to 70F given the nippy start with most places in Westchester moving into the lower 40s at this moment with cool NW winds coming down behind the frontal passage. As for the debate about Tuesday/Wednesday temperatures and the OKX bias, I think they are justified in going cool for Tuesday as winds are E/NE with showers arriving by 18z and cloudy conditions all day...looks like a typically morose early-spring day as we've seen many times in April 2011, a month with no truly cold days but plenty of chilly, gray ones. I do believe Wednesday will be warmer than forecasted as the 0z ECM shows 850s exceeding 16C that day. I believe they are being cautious on LI since we still have an SST hangover from the cold winter, and the wind direction is certainly not ideal with a S/SE component as the high drifts offshore, but I still believe 850s merit temperatures in LI reaching the mid-upper 50s with 60-65F readings common in NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Upton's forecast of 61F seems fair tomorrow for Westchester; 850s start around 0C and warm to near 5C, but cloud cover is clearly approaching the area by 20z when we are generally nearing our afternoon high temperature. I just don't think it's going to be possible to get to 70F given the nippy start with most places in Westchester moving into the lower 40s at this moment with cool NW winds coming down behind the frontal passage. As for the debate about Tuesday/Wednesday temperatures and the OKX bias, I think they are justified in going cool for Tuesday as winds are E/NE with showers arriving by 18z and cloudy conditions all day...looks like a typically morose early-spring day as we've seen many times in April 2011, a month with no truly cold days but plenty of chilly, gray ones. I do believe Wednesday will be warmer than forecasted as the 0z ECM shows 850s exceeding 16C that day. I believe they are being cautious on LI since we still have an SST hangover from the cold winter, and the wind direction is certainly not ideal with a S/SE component as the high drifts offshore, but I still believe 850s merit temperatures in LI reaching the mid-upper 50s with 60-65F readings common in NYC metro. if we are sunny until 20z, that is plenty of time to reach 70 and 20z is looking like a good arrival time for the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Newark was at 56 at 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 New NAM pushed the QPF about 30 miles south now giving the city 0.5"-0.75" and most of northern NJ as much as an inch. That would definitly aggravate the ongoing flooding problems. Edit : 6z GFS gives KMMU 1.17" of rain and the city 0.5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 New NAM pushed the QPF about 30 miles south now giving the city 0.5"-0.75" and most of northern NJ as much as an inch. That would definitly aggravate the ongoing flooding problems. looks like MCS activity it can easily change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 looks like MCS activity it can easily change No doubt, for the better of for the worse, but this is a short term forecast so model verification should be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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