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Moving forward into April..


earthlight

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Yeah the 12z GFS depicts a baroclinic zone w/ the N-S thermal gradient, PHL-NYC area right along the boundary as usual. Verbatim most of next week is garbage in NYC w/ 50s and a NE/ELY flow. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens based upon how this spring's played out thus far -- the warmth generally confined to CNJ points SW.

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Yeah the 12z GFS depicts a baroclinic zone w/ the N-S thermal gradient, PHL-NYC area right along the boundary as usual. Verbatim most of next week is garbage in NYC w/ 50s and a NE/ELY flow. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens based upon how this spring's played out thus far -- the warmth generally confined to CNJ points SW.

Agreed, low probability of any real warmth the rest of the month in KNYC or thereabout.

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I'm not saying the GFS is definitely correct, but the NAO and AO will be declining over the next week, which should yeild more resistance to warmth in the Northeast. Considering the true warm sector hasn't made it much further N than NYC is the current very +AO/NAO pattern, it makes sense that the cut-off would probably be further south than recent heat surges.

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I'm not saying the GFS is definitely correct, but the NAO and AO will be declining over the next week, which should yeild more resistance to warmth in the Northeast. Considering the true warm sector hasn't made it much further N than NYC is the current very +AO/NAO pattern, it makes sense that the cut-off would probably be further south than recent heat surges.

True, but as we get into late April/ early May that warm sector will be moving north just as a matter of climo.

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12z euro has close to 1" of rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then temps reach low 60's, Sunday afternoon.

Monday gets into the low to mid 60's.

Tuesday gets near 70 degrees.

and Wednesday looks seasonal.

Sounds like its cooler than the 00z run, more similar to the GFS although warmer than it. Basically depicts a near normal pattern; 60-65F are average temps for the next 10 days.

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The better question is, what color bermuda shorts will NZucker be donning in the warmth?

He will be busy discussing the -epo block that will last through may and how it could easily bring 2-3 more signifiant snowstorms to the area. Also how we may see frost in the morning on monday when the high is in the upper 60s. He will also mention the -10 C line that shows up on the gfs on day 11, and how it may produce record lows on easter.

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12z euro has close to 1" of rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Then temps reach low 60's, Sunday afternoon.

Monday gets into the low to mid 60's.

Tuesday gets near 70 degrees.

and Wednesday looks seasonal.

I'll take it. 60s on Sunday, mid 60s Monday, 70s Tuesday. Lock it up.

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