Moving forward into April..

[dbc]

I've slept through upper 80's & low 90's, that was disgusting. But 80 degrees is really nothing.

It was only like 60 something degrees, that was comfortable to me. If we had a 60 degree low in the summer I'd probably be very cold.

I think certain people can handle certain extremes better, I can't take the cold very well.

I have tried 80 and high humidity without AC/fans and it is really terrible. I have done it but inevitably wake up miserable. 60 with humidity basically at 100% and zero wind like it was last night is not comfortable sleeping weather either for me no matter the time of year. I managed to sleep as I said without the AC/fans last night but it was not comfortable at all.

[IsentropicLift]

looks like a pattern shift is finaly underway, although the GFS does try and build back in a ridge towards the end of its run.

[tim]

..."rolling warmth"???..its been miserable out here on the east end of LI..its

another day of fog and temps stuck in the 50's w/ a gusty S wind..whats harder to swallow is the fact

nassau county was well up in the 70's yesterday..oh well thats april on the east end..

[pazzo83]

Pretty tropical feel here in the city. Already 71 in midtown.

I don't know about you guys, but I think this summer, hot or not, is going to be humid as hell. The writing is on the wall.

[forkyfork]

low clouds are burning off... i think ewr will reach 80 before the seabreeze

[IsentropicLift]

Pretty tropical feel here in the city. Already 71 in midtown.

I don't know about you guys, but I think this summer, hot or not, is going to be humid as hell. The writing is on the wall.

We seem to be stuck in a pattern where the gulf is going to be open for business and provide plentiful moisture. The bright side is I think the pattern is supportive of east coast tropical threats, the bad part is this reminds me of those past summers where it literally rained everyday for a week. We shall see how things work out. You can see that everytime the pattern tries to make an adjustment, it corrects itself within a few days. This has been ongoing for quite some time now.

[pazzo83]

We seem to be stuck in a pattern where the gulf is going to be open for business and provide plentiful moisture. The bright side is I think the pattern is supportive of east coast tropical threats, the bad part is this reminds me of those past summers where it literally rained everyday for a week. We shall see how things work out. You can see that everytime the pattern tries to make an adjustment, it corrects itself within a few days. This has been ongoing for quite some time now.

Probably going to be a summer more typical of the gulf coast, hot/humid with daily rain/tstorms if that kind of pattern continues.

[IsentropicLift]

Probably going to be a summer more typical of the gulf coast, hot/humid with daily rain/tstorms if that kind of pattern continues.

yeah too be honest, the way last summer went, you knew that mother nature was going to rebound and it wasn't going to be pretty. Let's hope we can at least salvage a few nice stretches of nice sunny weather and maybe even a landfalling hurricane or two

[pazzo83]

yeah too be honest, the way last summer went, you knew that mother nature was going to rebound and it wasn't going to be pretty. Let's hope we can at least salvage a few nice stretches of nice sunny weather and maybe even a landfalling hurricane or two

I'm game. Growing up in VA I am used to those kinds of summers (we've had several that were truly tropical, where it would get to about 90-95 and around 4 or 5 pm, thunderstorm that didn't cool anything down, then it would just stay around 75-85 at night), plus we would usually get at least some of the effects of a tropical system every year.

[TheTrials]

low clouds are burning off... i think ewr will reach 80 before the seabreeze

easily.

[nzucker]

Up to 70.1/64, feels uncomfortably muggy for late April. Sun is winning out here.

[NorEaster27]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&site=OKX&map.x=119&map.y=206

0 visibility with 20 mph winds

[famartin]

low clouds are burning off... i think ewr will reach 80 before the seabreeze

Possible Fail

[forkyfork]

Possible Fail

it's 80 here and 71 at ewr with east winds... they are really susceptible to newark bay

i think they hit 75 before it hit them

[pazzo83]

it's 80 here and 71 at ewr with east winds... they are really susceptible to newark bay

i think they hit 75 before it hit them

Winds have shifted to more favorable direction for heating... ewr back up to 76.

[Isotherm]

Looks like KEWR made 78F, unless they jumped higher between obs.

[Euripides]

Ok, a clap of thunder and then heavy rain for a few minutes in Manhattan.

[TheTrials]

great weekend shaping up. Hopefully next week isn't like the gfs shows.

[NorEaster27]

What a beautiful morning full sun blue sky and a temp of 54 so refreshing to be out of the days of fog

[A-L-E-X]

What a beautiful morning full sun blue sky and a temp of 54 so refreshing to be out of the days of fog

You said it! This has been the ugliest April in years.

[CooL]

The NAO is definately coming back. Which basically means the epic severe weather may be blunted for alittle bit as storms try to reach the east coast before turning the corner. As well as putting a cap on our temps with troughs swinging thru..

[tmagan]

12Z GGEM, ECMWF, UKMET, JMA and 18Z GFS in agreement on a wet middle of the week.

[Isotherm]

Looking likely we'll have some strong negative departures for the first week fo May. Transition to the negative modality of the NAO and AO will yield a blocky north atlantic w/ lower than normal heights bellying underneath across the Lakes and Northeast. The storm mid next week reminds me of the May 2008 (Mother's Day) fiasco, with windswept, cold rains on the coastal plains and flakes flying in the mountains. We may have 1 or 2 days next week where high temps struggle through the 40s, may not even cracking 50F. There was some discussion on here a week ago re: May's ability/inability to produce cold highs, but no doubt 50s aren't uncommon right through mid to late May if you've got a trough, cold 850's, and a relatively strong storm. I recall a couple Memorial Days where highs failed to get out of the 50s and it was raining. In fact, more often than not it seems, Memorial Day is crappy on the NJ shore. Labor Day tends to consistently be nicer with highs in the low 80s and moderate humidity, occasionally 90s, but rarely cold rains.

Now the question is when do we reach the light at the end of the tunnel, and flip back to a warmer pattern? IMO it'll take at least 2 weeks for the -NAO/AO episode to run its course. We'll certainly have many nice days over the coming weeks, but as far as summertime warmth, we'll get a long break from that.

[uncle W]

Looking likely we'll have some strong negative departures for the first week fo May. Transition to the negative modality of the NAO and AO will yield a blocky north atlantic w/ lower than normal heights bellying underneath across the Lakes and Northeast. The storm mid next week reminds me of the May 2008 (Mother's Day) fiasco, with windswept, cold rains on the coastal plains and flakes flying in the mountains. We may have 1 or 2 days next week where high temps struggle through the 40s, may not even cracking 50F. There was some discussion on here a week ago re: May's ability/inability to produce cold highs, but no doubt 50s aren't uncommon right through mid to late May if you've got a trough, cold 850's, and a relatively strong storm. I recall a couple Memorial Days where highs failed to get out of the 50s and it was raining. In fact, more often than not it seems, Memorial Day is crappy on the NJ shore. Labor Day tends to consistently be nicer with highs in the low 80s and moderate humidity, occasionally 90s, but rarely cold rains.

Now the question is when do we reach the light at the end of the tunnel, and flip back to a warmer pattern? IMO it'll take at least 2 weeks for the -NAO/AO episode to run its course. We'll certainly have many nice days over the coming weeks, but as far as summertime warmth, we'll get a long break from that.

after 5/13 max highs in the 40's is rare...last year the max was 48 on 5/12...The month was warm though...

lowest max's for the second half of May...

47 5/27/1961

46 5/25/1967

48 5/19/1950...

A negative nao doesn't guarantee a cool May...1985, 1965 and 1975 had a negative nao but were mild......

[Isotherm]

after 5/13 max highs in the 40's is rare...last year the max was 48 on 5/12...The month was warm though...

lowest max's for the second half of May...

47 5/27/1961

46 5/25/1967

48 5/19/1950...

A negative nao doesn't guarantee a cool May...1985, 1965 and 1975 had a negative nao but were mild......

Yeah we could always flip warmer for the second half of May and end up above normal if we get torch days. Agree that < 50F highs are very uncommon post mid month.

[nzucker]

Yeah we could always flip warmer for the second half of May and end up above normal if we get torch days. Agree that < 50F highs are very uncommon post mid month.

The -NAO should still produce a colder than normal pattern in May, although the correlation is somewhat less than in winter. During the summer, a -NAO usually produces colder than normal temperatures in the Northern Tier and warmer than normal values in the South, so it acts a bit differently from what we get in DJFM with the Greenland block.

May 12, 2010 had a high temperature of 44F here in Westchester, one of the few times we've had the heating on in mid-May, sort of weird for the warmest spring on record. This year, the thermostat has been off since April 22nd, when we had a maximum of 49F with chilly southerlies...I do think the heat will kick back on once more next week. Although the NWS has 59/43 next Wednesday as the coolest day of the week, I'm thinking they are leaning towards climo and will go colder if the cut-off remains on the models for another day or two. I could see a day like 48/40 or something here if we get the low to track to our southeast with 850s near 0C and heavy rain, snow mixing in at times in the mountains.

[A-L-E-X]

The -NAO should still produce a colder than normal pattern in May, although the correlation is somewhat less than in winter. During the summer, a -NAO usually produces colder than normal temperatures in the Northern Tier and warmer than normal values in the South, so it acts a bit differently from what we get in DJFM with the Greenland block.

May 12, 2010 had a high temperature of 44F here in Westchester, one of the few times we've had the heating on in mid-May, sort of weird for the warmest spring on record. This year, the thermostat has been off since April 22nd, when we had a maximum of 49F with chilly southerlies...I do think the heat will kick back on once more next week. Although the NWS has 59/43 next Wednesday as the coolest day of the week, I'm thinking they are leaning towards climo and will go colder if the cut-off remains on the models for another day or two. I could see a day like 48/40 or something here if we get the low to track to our southeast with 850s near 0C and heavy rain, snow mixing in at times in the mountains.

I thought a -NAO was linked to hot summery weather?

[Dark Energy]

Looking likely we'll have some strong negative departures for the first week fo May. Transition to the negative modality of the NAO and AO will yield a blocky north atlantic w/ lower than normal heights bellying underneath across the Lakes and Northeast. The storm mid next week reminds me of the May 2008 (Mother's Day) fiasco, with windswept, cold rains on the coastal plains and flakes flying in the mountains. We may have 1 or 2 days next week where high temps struggle through the 40s, may not even cracking 50F. There was some discussion on here a week ago re: May's ability/inability to produce cold highs, but no doubt 50s aren't uncommon right through mid to late May if you've got a trough, cold 850's, and a relatively strong storm. I recall a couple Memorial Days where highs failed to get out of the 50s and it was raining. In fact, more often than not it seems, Memorial Day is crappy on the NJ shore. Labor Day tends to consistently be nicer with highs in the low 80s and moderate humidity, occasionally 90s, but rarely cold rains.

Now the question is when do we reach the light at the end of the tunnel, and flip back to a warmer pattern? IMO it'll take at least 2 weeks for the -NAO/AO episode to run its course. We'll certainly have many nice days over the coming weeks, but as far as summertime warmth, we'll get a long break from that.

Hey Tom. IIRC, I read a thread on here at one time that many said we will have a warmish april, especially late, and that took place, which may lead into early May, before it cools down a bit and we don't see a repeat of last summer. The really warm stuff stays early on then remains tranquil. What do you think since you are into the long range more than I am. thanks.

[tmagan]

Talk about impressive upper air patterns for early May on the Day7 and beyond on the 12Z ECMWF.

[Isotherm]

Hey Tom. IIRC, I read a thread on here at one time that many said we will have a warmish april, especially late, and that took place, which may lead into early May, before it cools down a bit and we don't see a repeat of last summer. The really warm stuff stays early on then remains tranquil. What do you think since you are into the long range more than I am. thanks.

Dark Energy -- I know this is very delayed but I wanted to get back to you. Been busy and just got around to looking at the LR recently; here's my summer outlook FWIW:

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

I like the idea of the strongest warmth occurring in the front part of the summer, and although overall we won't torch, I don't see this as a cool summer in the Northeast. Should be very humid, slightly warmer than normal temps, with plenty of rainfall (at least IMO). Once we break out of this slow-moving trough late week, we'll begin to turn the corner into a more summer-like pattern. Could see 80s by next week, possibly getting hot at times late May.