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Moving forward into April..


earthlight

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It looks like the GGEM QPF monster vomitted all over the midwest and northeast for more rain. Yuck.

For the northeast the brunt of that will likely occur Thu PM with the front passage. Tue - Wed look very nice on most guidance for our area. Perhaps we are setting up for a decent weekend next week, past the Thu storms.

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For the northeast the brunt of that will likely occur Thu PM with the front passage. Tue - Wed look very nice on most guidance for our area. Perhaps we are setting up for a decent weekend next week, past the Thu storms.

i think we are going to see a solid n-s squall line with copious rainfall

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It has been awesome all night here in the city. Right around 60 all night.

Yea, I went out last night with no jacket either. The WF is slowly retreating N, but is buckling across the region. The latest HPC analysis is way off showing the front has cleared to our N. Just look at the obs over NJ. S NJ is SCT and warmer, so it has cleared there, but I still think it is hung up over N NJ. It looks like the WF is moving N from the SW and SE, but in the middle, it is holding firm. Interesting to see what it does today.

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How is the severe weather chances looking this week? Seems out west they have been getting some great super cells....my friend sent me a picture of siliver dollar size hail he got in Naperville, IL. Its seems it might be abit early for us on the east coast(plus where not exactly tornado alley), look foward to some boomers and happy easter everyone.

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75 in southern queens now

Yep - today's probably the warmest day of the week for the coast with WLY winds.

I'm torching here in Colts Neck. 76.2F and rising, WSW wind at 5-10mph. Pretty muggy out, definitely feels like a convective afternoon. Hopefully some Easter boomers later.

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I think SE PA, NE MD, and SW NJ may be the hot spot region for strong convection later today. We've got MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/KG from CNJ southwestward, low to mid level lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 degrees C, overlayed with 50-55 kts of bulk effective shear, bullseye directly over PHL. Destabilization is occurring as we speak, and with another couple hours of dirunal heating, we should see convective initiation by mid to late afternoon, with the time frame to watch probably 5pm-11pm. NYC I think could be too far north; thermodynamic and wind shear values not nearly as impressive in NNJ/NYC, but for CNJ southward, particular SW NJ and SE PA, definitely be on the look out late afternoon into the evening. I believe the high-res models (the HRR?) has a decent multi-clustered storm progged for SE PA and C/S NJ this evening.

Now up to 77/61 here.

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