TheTrials Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Can somebody tell me when this awful weather is going to end tired of it being warm once a week, then back to clouds/rain/and 50's its 49 now We are being punished for last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Just taking a quick look at the GFS, it's very active throughout the entire run. When you run the 24hr accumulated QPF loop there is hardly a time period in which the area is completely dry. Also looks like we will be dealing with a strong trough around the 10-14 day period. euro is very very warm and pretty dry for next week. The only rain we are getting is from severe weather makers out west that weaken once they reach us. The pattern looks fast, i dont see any flooding or prolonged rain event noreasters prospects anywhere. The atmosphere needs to clear out all of these clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 euro is very very warm and pretty dry for next week. The only rain we are getting is from severe weather makers out west that weaken once they reach us. The pattern looks fast, i dont see any flooding or prolonged rain event noreasters prospects anywhere. The atmosphere needs to clear out all of these clouds I'm just reporting what the GFS showed. I don't have access to the euro paid site so I can't compare. I wouldn't expect good agreement on a ten day forecast lol. Models have been picking up on something tropical/sub-tropical down near the Bahamas, it will be interesting to see what if any effect this system has on the medium to long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm just reporting what the GFS showed. I don't have access to the euro paid site so I can't compare. I wouldn't expect good agreement on a ten day forecast lol. Models have been picking up on something tropical/sub-tropical down near the Bahamas, it will be interesting to see what if any effect this system has on the medium to long range forecast. torch starts next monday and lasts all week via euro. GFS always has a cold and troughy bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 This is normal spring unfortunately. One might think April is way below normal when in fact it's actually above temperature wise. March was also above but would have been way above if not for the final 10-12 days. Can somebody tell me when this awful weather is going to end tired of it being warm once a week, then back to clouds/rain/and 50's its 49 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 torch starts next monday and lasts all week via euro. GFS always has a cold and troughy bias Be careful with the word "always" because you will almost always get burned after making a comment like that lol In any event, model agreement past this week is not high. Take the CMC at 180hrs. It has a tropical/sub-tropical storm lurking near Bermuda, and seemingly on a path towards the US IMO. The GFS has the same look to it minus the tropical system at the same hour The EC agrees with the idea of a S/W flow at 180hrs but it also has the trough moving towards the east coast beyond day 7. It's all going to come down to the strength of that western Atlantic ridge and what effect if any that tropical disturbance will have on sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 This is normal spring unfortunately. One might think April is way below normal when in fact it's actually above temperature wise. March was also above but would have been way above if not for the final 10-12 days. Central Park did finish March -0.2F... Be careful with the word "always" because you will almost always get burned after making a comment like that lol In any event, model agreement past this week is not high. Take the CMC at 180hrs. It has a tropical/sub-tropical storm lurking near Bermuda, and seemingly on a path towards the US IMO. The GFS has the same look to it minus the tropical system at the same hour The EC agrees with the idea of a S/W flow at 180hrs but it also has the trough moving towards the east coast beyond day 7. It's all going to come down to the strength of that western Atlantic ridge and what effect if any that tropical disturbance will have on sensible weather. They all look warm, however, with the 10C line past NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6zNam Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 http://www.weather.c...ures_large.html this is why spring sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 0z ECM looks extremely warm in the medium to long range with +20C 850mb temperatures into NJ at Day 7: 0z GFS also looked to be displaying a more prolonged period of warmth starting Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6zNam Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Is this warmth being predicted just another mirage with a warm front in reality becoming stalled just south of NYC all week next week? Philly and DC in the 80's all next week, while NYC and Boston don't crack above 55 all next week. I think next week will be misery just north of 40 north, with summer just to its south. The big high moving into Quebec Tuesday next week says do not push the warmth further north like most models are showing now. Case in point is today, NYC will stay in the 40's until 8 PM, and once the occclusion passes temps will soar to the upper 50's for a few hours until dropping quickly to the low 40's by Thursday morning in Canadian airmass. 30 miles west of NYC will get to 80 today with NYC and LI 25-35 degrees cooler. There is no mechanism to get the WF north and east of Newark today with very cold ocean and isobar pressure pattern over the area and influence from New England wedge of mP air. We probably suffer another 2-3 weeks before we can see warm around here with the ocean struggling to 50 degrees at least. However, the higher sun angle and maybe the pattern running 100-150 miles further north with season progression will get warmth and heat in here during May like it did in 1996. Next week is all false hope on the models, also low resolution in the models are bringing warm air too far north next week. Think about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 0z euro cooled down the weekend. Has upper 40's into low 50's as highs on Saturday and only upper 50's for Sunday. Monday is warm and gets into 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 0z euro cooled down the weekend. Has upper 40's into low 50's as highs on Saturday and only upper 50's for Sunday. Monday is warm and gets into 70's. Not surprised, the euro has been way too aggresive with the warmth. It will bust hard core today as well for areas in and around the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Not surprised, the euro has been way too aggresive with the warmth. It will bust hard core today as well for areas in and around the city. I'm still failing to see why people still put so much faith in this model. It's busted just as badly if not worse over the past few years. For whatever reason, all the models tend to be underdoing QPF lately as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 look familiar, seems to be a very similar setup to what we just went through. Both the NAM and GFS have healthy amounts of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Case in point is today, NYC will stay in the 40's until 8 PM Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Case in point is today, NYC will stay in the 40's until 8 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Still socked in with low clouds and fog up here in the Hudson Valley - Temperature hovering at 49F. Hoping the warm front will advance a little further north as this is starting to get depressing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 clouds are getting thicker now, not thinner, wash rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Euro had NYC into the mid to upper 60's by 2pm. So its off by 15-20 degrees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 things should be improving soon, warm front is clearly visible on satalite imagery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 I just don't see how this pattern of storminess is going to break down. The models are very consistent at keeping that western Atlantic ridge (Bermuda High) around favoring a trough over the central part of the country with continued severe weather oubreaks. The storm track is then towards the Great Lakes/New England area and we remain in an active SW flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Euro had NYC into the mid to upper 60's by 2pm. So its off by 15-20 degrees right now. Said it first thing this morning it was going to bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 70s are not far away... 73 at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Its close, boys and girls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 12z euro is ugly the next 7 days. The weekend looks cold and drizzly and it continues into Monday and Tuesday. Monday is the only day that has temps into the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 65 and climbing quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 12z euro is ugly the next 7 days. The weekend looks cold and drizzly and it continues into Monday and Tuesday. Monday is the only day that has temps into the 60's. Hence my previous post, this pattern shows no signs of breaking down anytime soon. The NAO is also forecast to take a dive bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Front progressing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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