earthlight Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 I don't understand why we have to draw Upton into the conversation..what they forecast has nothing to do with us taking a meteorological look at the synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I think the disparity is quick shocking though (not to say Upton is wrong and Mt. holly is right). But one has low to mid 70s for a high on Wednesday and the other mid 50s for bordering counties I don't understand why we have to draw Upton into the conversation..what they forecast has nothing to do with us taking a meteorological look at the synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 We go through the same thing with snow forecast maps. Upton could have 3" for its far western zones and Mt. Holly lately shows 6" on its bordering zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 I think the disparity is quick shocking though (not to say Upton is wrong and Mt. holly is right). But one has low to mid 70s for a high on Wednesday and the other mid 50s for bordering counties Times like these are good times to use ensembles and note their trends. The SREF had been trending a bit cooler, but today it's leveled off...the 15z run actually got a bit warmer than the morning run at 09z. The MOS also got warmer at 12z and the Euro is still in the 70's. The NAM seems to be on it's own. I can't find one SREF member which looks remotely like the 18z NAM, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Times like these are good times to use ensembles and note their trends. The SREF had been trending a bit cooler, but today it's leveled off...the 15z run actually got a bit warmer than the morning run at 09z. The MOS also got warmer at 12z and the Euro is still in the 70's. The NAM seems to be on it's own. I can't find one SREF member which looks remotely like the 18z NAM, at all. ridiculous disagreement, what the nam does to us is what the srefs do to Northern New England..The ETA's look like the coldest members and even they are way warmer than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Is it going to rain tomorrow thats what I want to know, I need to get work in, too much rain already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I don't understand why we have to draw Upton into the conversation..what they forecast has nothing to do with us taking a meteorological look at the synoptics. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 sometimes the WRF-NMM 2m temps are laughable. they keep parts of the Catskills in the 30s during the daytime on Wednesday, with 850s at +16C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 sometimes the WRF-NMM 2m temps are laughable. they keep parts of the Catskills in the 30s during the daytime on Wednesday, with 850s at +16C! Inversion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 sometimes the WRF-NMM 2m temps are laughable. they keep parts of the Catskills in the 30s during the daytime on Wednesday, with 850s at +16C! They are even better with snow cover in place. Often too cold in that situation. I know snow tends to keep things cooler, but often the WRF is too cool in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 nam looks to be trending warmer for wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ahh, this is the best time of year for the urban heat island, very comfortable low 50s right now in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 The 00z NAM finally caved, kinda..it brings 70 F to my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 sometimes the WRF-NMM 2m temps are laughable. they keep parts of the Catskills in the 30s during the daytime on Wednesday, with 850s at +16C! NMM has the coldest bias of all the models a 100 times more than the NAM and GFS combine. I bet they have snow not far away for Tuesday-Wednesday that is how pathatic that model is. Death to the NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Resized to 95% (was 768 x 496) - Click image to enlarge Back to the clouds and storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ahh, this is the best time of year for the urban heat island, very comfortable low 50s right now in the city. Totally agree 100%, late April is awesome, leaves growing back on trees, flowers budding, sun staying out untill around 8pm, warm weather and summer coming. Best time of year imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 0z euro continues to have 70 degrees for NYC and vicinity tomorrow. Looks like other models are now catching on to the idea. Euro also has mid 70's on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 The radar is literally exploding over central and eastern PA....looks like heavy rain coming this afternoon. The new NAM is just embarrasing based on current radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 GFS FTW with the rain today, EURO was way off from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 The radar is literally exploding over central and eastern PA....looks like heavy rain coming this afternoon. The new NAM is just embarrasing based on current radar trends. There are some heavier returns but I wouldn't say exploding. Its also losing punch as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 There are some heavier returns but I wouldn't say exploding. Its also losing punch as it heads east. The radar looked alot more impressive when I made the post. Anyway, the NAM had virtually no precip over NJ and even if the current stuff doesn't hold together as well as it did over PA, we will get some decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ahh, this is the best time of year for the urban heat island, very comfortable low 50s right now in the city. Disagree completely, it's the worst time of year. No interesting weather to track, heat, snow, severe weather, tropical cyclones, etc. Days on end with overcast skies and temps in the 50s. No leaves on any trees in my area yet. Last April was an aberration; most years we end with some pretty crappy stretches for a few weeks in the Mar-May period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Disagree completely, it's the worst time of year. No interesting weather to track, heat, snow, severe weather, tropical cyclones, etc. Days on end with overcast skies and temps in the 50s. No leaves on any trees in my area yet. Last April was an aberration; most years we end with some pretty crappy stretches for a few weeks in the Mar-May period. He was speaking of the city, where it will be a matter of time before the haze and polution take over the city and the night time temps struggle to get below 80 with the UHI effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 He was speaking of the city, where it will be a matter of time before the haze and polution take over the city and the night time temps struggle to get below 80 with the UHI effect. Annnnd we have a winner. Last summer was ridiculous. Walking outside at 2am when it is still 90 out is hard to describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 East of the city is a nightmare because the warm front never makes it that far and it is lots of time on the wrong side and there is where it stays in the 50's just like last week where it is in the 70's and 80's is the warm sector. Tomorrow shot of severe thunderstorms will be SW of NYC where the instablity will be stronger and more unstable where the city and eastward it will weaken and become more elevated but can't say that there won't be any thunderstorms at all because the last two events there was thunderstorms despite the strong marine layer in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Annnnd we have a winner. Last summer was ridiculous. Walking outside at 2am when it is still 90 out is hard to describe. City is probably still hanging onto the heat from last summer, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 City is probably still hanging onto the heat from last summer, LOL LMAO, wouldn't be surprised, especially the 130F+ bullsh*t that was around for like 3 months in the Harold Square subway station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Can somebody tell me when this awful weather is going to end tired of it being warm once a week, then back to clouds/rain/and 50's its 49 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Can somebody tell me when this awful weather is going to end tired of it being warm once a week, then back to clouds/rain/and 50's its 49 now Just taking a quick look at the GFS, it's very active throughout the entire run. When you run the 24hr accumulated QPF loop there is hardly a time period in which the area is completely dry. Also looks like we will be dealing with a strong trough around the 10-14 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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