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Moving forward into April..

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Thunderdude

Thunderdude

Posted
Posted

if we are sunny until 20z, that is plenty of time to reach 70

and 20z is looking like a good arrival time for the clouds

Tuesday will be cool no doubt where even the city will probably not get out of the 50's even with the E to ENE wind while LI will even be a few degrees cooler perhaps struggle to pass the 50 degree mark with rain and drizzle. Wednesday will be the question on depends where the warm fronts hangs up.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

So the 12z NAM has NYC in the low 50's Wednesday, while the 0z Euro pushes everyone into low 70's.

Great agreement.

most of the SREF members are coming in warmer, but MAV MOS is stuck in the 50s. I think the warmer guidance is going to win out. High bust potential, especially with 850s spiking.

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CooL

CooL

Posted
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GFS is quite wet in the long term. No big storms but rain chances al least a few times each week.

serious post...But i have come to a conclusion that you love rain and floods like how i get excited with landfalling hurricanes. Like an obsession

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earthlight

earthlight

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If we clear into the warm sector Wednesday, like most SREF members are showing..there will likely be a legitimate severe weather threat away from the immediate shore. The SREF has an expansive area of 1000+ j/kg MLCAPE as far north as Northern New Jersey valid 2100z Wednesday. With 0-6km bulk shear averaging around 70 kts on forecast soundings and SREF means, and surface temperatures into the upper 60's to low 70's in the warm sector, the potential definitely exists for organized updrafts capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Interestingly, with our area just south of the warm front...the potential also exists for an isolated spin up (the tornado threat is definitely non-zero) with 0-3km helicity values near 350-400 m2/s2 between 18-21z Wednesday.

The 'Significant Tornado Ingredients' probabilities on the SREF's reflect this potential well ..

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f066.gif

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earthlight

earthlight

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I have this feeling that we are in for one hell of a severe weather season all up and down the east coast. Things just seem to be materializing without much effort in that department.

We need to get the southeast ridge flexing a bit more muscle. The usual summer time height rise should do the trick...the current pattern as you said is very active, but it's not quite getting to this area yet.

That being said, there has been plenty of thermodynamic and kinematic support for severe weather this year thus far, and it's been pretty widespread...so I would have to say we'd see above average activity should this pattern continue through the next few months.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

We need to get the southeast ridge flexing a bit more muscle. The usual summer time height rise should do the trick...the current pattern as you said is very active, but it's not quite getting to this area yet.

That being said, there has been plenty of thermodynamic and kinematic support for severe weather this year thus far, and it's been pretty widespread...so I would have to say we'd see above average activity should this pattern continue through the next few months.

Yea, in the DC area south it has been out of control. I was in VA this past weekend in Charlottesville, and there was a tornado about 20 miles to the west (in the Shenandoah valley, where tornadoes are pretty rare), major major flash flooding over the blue ridge, and widespread high winds/frequent lightning. It was pretty wild. Pretty much that whole area of the state had a tornado warning at some point Saturday afternoon.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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serious post...But i have come to a conclusion that you love rain and floods like how i get excited with landfalling hurricanes. Like an obsession

It's an obsession with significant weather. I prefer snowstorms the most, then severe thunderstorms and then crazy rain storms/wet noreasters. I would say you could include landfalling tropical systems but since they are so rare up here they don't really count.

This time of year, if I can't get thunder or a powerhouse wind driven rain like we had Saturday I prefer nice weather. I doubt that there is anyone other than a vampire that doesn't like clear skies and warm temps, especially this time of year lol

I've been following the severe weather outbreaks quite closesly this season, and at times its so exciting it makes me think about paying to go on a chase, but then I come to my senses and realize just how dangerous it all is, not to mention it takes a toll seeing how devistated people are after they have either lost a loved one or have had there entire lives destroyed.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Lovely 16 degree spread between the MAV and MET back home on Wednesday...

GFS MOS (MAV)
KTTN   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    4/18/2011  1200 UTC                      
DT /APR  18/APR  19                /APR  20                /APR  21 
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
N/X                    50          63          51          78    47 
TMP  66 68 61 56 54 51 53 59 60 60 57 55 53 52 54 65 74 76 69 57 51 
DPT  39 40 42 44 46 46 48 50 49 50 50 49 49 50 53 56 56 54 52 43 36 
CLD  OV BK CL BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK SC BK FW CL 
WDR  18 17 16 17 18 24 14 16 29 36 04 06 07 07 09 18 21 22 24 31 31 
WSP  09 12 09 07 05 04 03 05 08 06 05 06 06 06 06 09 11 13 10 10 12 
P06        19    18     8    48    66    59    52    40    24  5  0 
P12                    24          66          76          48    17 
Q06         0     0     0     1     1     1     1     1     0  0  0 
Q12                     0           1           2           1     0 
T06      5/22  3/ 8  2/ 2  2/ 7  5/24 18/ 6 30/ 5 16/11 26/48  3/ 7 
T12            5/26        2/11       18/24       50/12    35/48    
POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0 
POS   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 
TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R 
SNW                     0                       0                 0 
CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  7  4  4  3  2  2  2  3  2  4  8  8  8  8 
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  6  5  5  5  4  5  4  3  3  1  3  5  7  7  7  7 
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR FG BR FG  N  N  N  N 

 NAM MOS (MET)
KTTN   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    4/18/2011  1200 UTC                      
DT /APR  18/APR  19                /APR  20                /APR  21 
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
N/X                    49          57          44          62    45 
TMP  60 59 55 53 51 50 51 54 54 53 49 48 47 46 46 51 58 62 58 50 49 
DPT  36 39 41 44 44 45 45 45 45 46 45 43 42 42 42 43 43 41 41 42 37 
CLD  OV OV BK SC OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CL CL 
WDR  19 13 16 16 19 19 05 02 06 06 03 05 05 05 06 07 10 18 09 26 29 
WSP  07 08 02 03 03 01 03 08 11 09 09 11 10 10 09 06 03 07 01 03 12 
P06        13     2     4    34    66    67    14    28    36 23  0 
P12                    14          66          67          46    26 
Q06         0     0     0     0     2     2     0     0     1  0  0 
Q12                     0           2           2           1     0 
T06      4/10  3/ 7  4/ 3  4/ 8  7/18  9/ 6  5/ 2  3/ 8 21/20  5/ 5 
T12            4/10       10/ 8        9/18       16/ 9    21/23    
SNW                     0                       0                 0 
CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  7  6  4  4  3  2  1  2  2  2  3  5  6  8  8 
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  5  5  5  3  4  5  7  7  2  5  2  3  7  7 
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N BR BR BR BR BR BR  N BR FG BR BR BR  N  N

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Thunderdude

Thunderdude

Posted
Posted

If we clear into the warm sector Wednesday, like most SREF members are showing..there will likely be a legitimate severe weather threat away from the immediate shore. The SREF has an expansive area of 1000+ j/kg MLCAPE as far north as Northern New Jersey valid 2100z Wednesday. With 0-6km bulk shear averaging around 70 kts on forecast soundings and SREF means, and surface temperatures into the upper 60's to low 70's in the warm sector, the potential definitely exists for organized updrafts capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Interestingly, with our area just south of the warm front...the potential also exists for an isolated spin up (the tornado threat is definitely non-zero) with 0-3km helicity values near 350-400 m2/s2 between 18-21z Wednesday.

The 'Significant Tornado Ingredients' probabilities on the SREF's reflect this potential well ..

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f066.gif

Upton is still going with their Anti-thunderstorm bias forecast despite what the models say. They won't put thunderstorms in the forecast and all other forecast areas have thunderstorm in the forecast and still say 40's for coastal areas and 50's for the city to near 60 F for NE NJ.

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Thunderdude

Thunderdude

Posted
Posted

12z euro text soundings shows 75-80 for NYC and vicinity for Wednesday.

At the same time the NAM and GFS show 48-52.

Crazy differences.

Actually the 12z GFS has mid 70's for the city and near 80 F for NJ with LI and coastal areas in the 60's so the GFS has trended warmer while the 12z NAM is stayed cooler. The NAM has even Trenton only in the low 60's and that shows this model has a cold bias but at the sametime if the warm front stays SW of the city and the area has a dirty SE wind then we all screwed and the city will get no better than 60 F while LI stays at best low to mid 50's. Right now all depends where how far NE that warm front progress.

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Thunderdude

Thunderdude

Posted
Posted

This is my area on Longt Island.

Tuesday Night: Showers. Low around 40. East wind between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A chance of rain . Cloudy, with a high near 46. East wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers , then a slight chance of showers between 1am and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 40

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