Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Next Wednesday looks like a top 10 day of year type of day.... dry, full sun, light wind, under 850mb of +3C.... Probably be 72 or so for a high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Next Wednesday looks like a top 10 day of year type of day.... dry, full sun, light wind, under 850mb of +3C.... Probably be 72 or so for a high yeah that ignal was there nicely on the 00z ec as well. i'm looking to that day as the mildest/nicest down my way during the next 7 - assuming current pattern indications hold true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Next Wednesday looks like a top 10 day of year type of day.... dry, full sun, light wind, under 850mb of +3C.... Probably be 72 or so for a high Perfect day to take off from work..throw on a pair of bikini briefs and lay out on the deck for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Euro says not so fast for a torch in BOS. Looks like the warmfront could get hung up near ne mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Euro says not so fast for a torch in BOS. Looks like the warmfront could get hung up near ne mass. Even in the torch areas...I think we'll be hard pressed to get 80F...but well into the 70s is looking likely. The 85F and 84F forecasts from yesterday are down to 80F and 81F....we'll see if they drop anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 TORCH!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Euro says not so fast for a torch in BOS. Looks like the warmfront could get hung up near ne mass. Exactly why forecasting 80 or 84 on D+5 is awfully dangerous this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Exactly why forecasting 80 or 84 on D+5 is awfully dangerous this time of year Tuesday could be warm too. I mean who knows, the WF could easily blow by us, but living in BOS it only takes a sea lion to fart and send a seabreeze through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Tuesday could be warm too. I mean who knows, the WF could easily blow by us, but living in BOS it only takes a sea lion to fart and send a seabreeze through the city. I'm pretty confident of getting near 80 at BDL. Other areas in SNE will be tough... also a ripping southerly flow doesn't scream record heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Exactly why forecasting 80 or 84 on D+5 is awfully dangerous this time of year Good advise... I don't think that synoptic depiction is one where any boundary 'gets hung up' in NE Mass though.. That looks like a snap shot where 2 hours later its up near PWM and racing NE... The ridge axis has departed E by then so there really isn't any inhibition on launching thta sucker to NS throughout that day... In fact, I am wondering if some good convection might just tickle you guys in the evening associated with the cfropa that is in the process of entering frontalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Perfect day to take off from work..throw on a pair of bikini briefs and lay out on the deck for a few hours Few hours ?! One word: sssssssssssssssss you'd be about tomatoe - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I'm pretty confident of getting near 80 at BDL. Other areas in SNE will be tough... also a ripping southerly flow doesn't scream record heat. I think many of us will be mild, but even on the GFS it looked like the WF would be near PWM or srn ME. How many times has a torch looked like a lock 4 days out, only to have some sort of stubborn WF hang up over the BOS area. All I'm saying is that throwing up 84's around here on a 5 day isn't a lock. Could it happen...sure, but I wouldn't have the nuts to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think many of us will be mild, but even on the GFS it looked like the WF would be near PWM or srn ME. How many times has a torch looked like a lock 4 days out, only to have some sort of stubborn WF hang up over the BOS area. All I'm saying is that throwing up 84's on a 5 day isn't a lock. Could it happen...sure, but I wouldn't have the nuts to do it. I think the idea is "what the hell." Its not like a snowstorm bust in regards to the public. If the forecast was 84F...and its 74F and sunny I don't think the public cares at all, it might even feel like 84F if its one of the first warm days of the season. If its in the 60s and cloudy in BOS while BDL is at 82F and full sun...then the public might not be to happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think many of us will be mild, but even on the GFS it looked like the WF would be near PWM or srn ME. How many times has a torch looked like a lock 4 days out, only to have some sort of stubborn WF hang up over the BOS area. All I'm saying is that throwing up 84's on a 5 day isn't a lock. Could it happen...sure, but I wouldn't have the nuts to do it. yeah even if said boundary is north of the area...BL flow seems to favor deep interior NE for the good warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think the idea is "what the hell." Its not like a snowstorm bust in regards to the public. If the forecast was 84F...and its 74F and sunny I don't think the public cares at all, it might even feel like 84F if its one of the first warm days of the season. If its in the 60s and cloudy in BOS while BDL is at 82F and full sun...then the public might not be to happy. Wait until we get one of those events 3 days out where the GFS has 85/65 for BOS and the NAM and Euro keep this airmass over BDL. End result is low clouds..fog..and a temp of 50F..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Nothing special about hitting 80..... boring. Wake me up in September.... I'm pretty confident of getting near 80 at BDL. Other areas in SNE will be tough... also a ripping southerly flow doesn't scream record heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 yeah even if said boundary is north of the area...BL flow seems to favor deep interior NE for the good warmth. Looks good for BDL/CEF area up through ASH. The usual torch spots on srly flow. It does look like winds will be more ssw so maybe some areas can avoid the indirect seabreeze from th S-coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yeah remember all those wonderful 90+ days that CEF had last summer. I bet all the CT valley people are salivating at the thought of that nice wx returning. I hit 90 three times last summer I think. Looks good for BDL/CEF area up through ASH. The usual torch spots on srly flow. It does look like winds will be more ssw so maybe some areas can avoid the indirect seabreeze from th S-coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Yeah remember all those wonderful 90+ days that CEF had last summer. I bet all the CT valley people are salivating at the thought of that nice wx returning. I hit 90 three times last summer I think. Death Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 TORCH!! MY man!! God, what a day it turned out to be............................ :sun: :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 MY man!! God, what a day it turned out to be............................ :sun: :sun: You're right there Joe.Big Winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 You're right there Joe.Big Winter here. It is awful here Pete. Snow is almost gone, 51F for a high. Strong sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Exactly why forecasting 80 or 84 on D+5 is awfully dangerous this time of year Or in general why forecasting 25-30 degrees above normal, and 5 degrees above the daily record on D+5 is dangerous any time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Will the torch be able to melt our snowpack? That is the question. Its gotta go sometime but of course, there are the piles from roof avalanches on north facing aspects that'll probably hold out till close to May, but will the natural pack be gone next week? I think its pretty likely but it'll have a fighting chance. Webcam from Stowe very close to my home location... The scene in Morrisville near KMVL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Will the torch be able to melt our snowpack? That is the question. Its gotta go sometime but of course, there are the piles from roof avalanches on north facing aspects that'll probably hold out till close to May, but will the natural pack be gone next week? I think its pretty likely but it'll have a fighting chance. Webcam from Stowe very close to my home location... ... The scene in Morrisville near KMVL... ... With thicknesses approaching 570dm and 15-17C at 850, decent mixing and at least partial sun ... this type of air mass in coming is a whole nother beast compared to any melting intervals you have had to date. It will do huge damage to that.... To mention, it's not really just Monday.... The cold front late Monday is actually weakening... Tuesday is a vistigial trough that remains, and the 850mb T's only recede back to +3 to +6C for Tuesday and Wednesday... Those day are going to nudge or exceed 70F where the sun comes out - more so on Wednesday. 3000ft els would still be 55 -60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Thinking Sat is the best out of the next five. Fog is an issue Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillB Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I notice a lot of people are hyperventilating over the 850 mb temperature. This value can be misleading. It is true that as the sun angle and day length increase, the solar heating of a sunny day makes it easier to mix up to 850 mb. But even in April this is not a slam-dunk. There are other mechanisms to consider, such as the strength of warm advection at that level compared with the lower level heating. Onshore flow may also buffer the lower level heating. The 00z 4/7 GFS forecast for Monday showed 15-17c at 850 mb...but forecast soundings for that Monday afternoon showed mixing depths were only to around 3000 feet. With that in place, the 925 mb temps would be far more relevant (take off 7-8C to get the dry adiabatic equivilent at 850 mb). Then there is the other extreme, which we can see in June-July-August. The mixing depth may extend well above 850 mb. In this case, the temps at 800 mb (occasionally higher) will be more relevant. That's why some of us talk about "equivilent 850 temps" as much as "850 temps" in our discussions. Bottom line...consider potential mixing depth before obsessing on forecast 850 mb temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I notice a lot of people are hyperventilating over the 850 mb temperature. This value can be misleading. It is true that as the sun angle and day length increase, the solar heating of a sunny day makes it easier to mix up to 850 mb. But even in April this is not a slam-dunk. There are other mechanisms to consider, such as the strength of warm advection at that level compared with the lower level heating. Onshore flow may also buffer the lower level heating. The 00z 4/7 GFS forecast for Monday showed 15-17c at 850 mb...but forecast soundings for that Monday afternoon showed mixing depths were only to around 3000 feet. With that in place, the 925 mb temps would be far more relevant (take off 7-8C to get the dry adiabatic equivilent at 850 mb). Then there is the other extreme, which we can see in June-July-August. The mixing depth may extend well above 850 mb. In this case, the temps at 800 mb (occasionally higher) will be more relevant. That's why some of us talk about "equivilent 850 temps" as much as "850 temps" in our discussions. Bottom line...consider potential mixing depth before obsessing on forecast 850 mb temperatures. Yeah, in this synopsis upcoming I'm more concerned about southerly component off those cold shelf waters S of LI then I am the ability to mix to 850. There are plenty of examples in history where warm sectors with at minimum partial sun and gradient in position turbulently mixed out any diurnal inversion when working together (I also think people are underestimating this warm lobe, too as it has some origin from Sonora/old Mexico). if the wind is SW as opposed to SSW, with 35kts at 850 and a lateral sfc pg of 20 mb betweem Cape Cod and BUF there is going to be mixing - Buuuut, that is of course all predicate on the assumption that the general appeal of Monday is correct lol. Ginxy where in the devil are you getting fog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Yeah, in this synopsis upcoming I'm more concerned about southerly component off those cold shelf waters S of LI then I am the ability to mix to 850. There are plenty of examples in history where warm sectors with at minimum partial sun and gradient in position turbulently mixed out any diurnal inversion when working together (I also think people are underestimating this warm lobe, too as it has some origin from Sonora/old Mexico). if the wind is SW as opposed to SSW, with 35kts at 850 and a lateral sfc pg of 20 mb betweem Cape Cod and BUF there is going to be mixing - Buuuut, that is of course all predicate on the assumption that the general appeal of Monday is correct lol. Ginxy where in the devil are you getting fog? Geez nice TStorm profile Mon AM On the GFS Showalter Index: -2.62 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible Total Totals Index: 52.57 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms Vertical Totals Index: 27.02 C Cross Totals Index: 25.55 C K Index: 25.69 Risk: 40-60 % chance of thunderstorms Sweat Index: 326.80 Risk: Showers and thunderstorms possible Energy Index: -2.03 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Going to go out on a big limb here. After a 7-9 day stretch of above normal or near normal temp regime the bottom will fall out sometime around April 16 th near the full moon. Indices are trending towards a NEG NAO, NEG AO, NEGATIVE EPO, the PNA looks to stay pretty negative but with the priors in play it appears to me quite a cool to cold spell will setup with a roll over ridge. Been watching this for a while, N Canada still remains below normal and with that that type of config the false spring week could lead to a stormy cold Easter. Just something to watch Nice 3 day snowstorm on the GFS 9-11 day, lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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