Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Our first torch of 2011 April 11-12th


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

Hey guys, you might get a kick out of the storm that's about to slam us here in AK. The low is currently in the 930's. Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings are up. Expecting feet of snow. Torch Smorch.lol

Better enjoy it now, my friend, because it sounds like when you return you'll have to mow the lawn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 603
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I hope it doesn't come in too much too soon. I sitll have a lot of burning ahead of me before I can focus on any lawn issues.

Off to a mild start this morning. 28.0/26

It will be cooler mid week than early week..but the whole week looks like 60's at least for the interior..Monday's 70's to near 80 won't be the norm..but still above normal

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It will be cooler mid week than early week..but the whole week looks like 60's at least for the interior..Monday's 70's to near 80 won't be the norm..but still above normal

Drove thru Tolland yesterday on Rte 84 on my way back from Plainville, What is your elevation there? That was a decent hill to climb..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Going to go out on a big limb here. After a 7-9 day stretch of above normal or near normal temp regime the bottom will fall out sometime around April 16 th near the full moon. Indices are trending towards a NEG NAO, NEG AO, NEGATIVE EPO, the PNA looks to stay pretty negative but with the priors in play it appears to me quite a cool to cold spell will setup with a roll over ridge. Been watching this for a while, N Canada still remains below normal and with that that type of config the false spring week could lead to a stormy cold Easter. Just something to watch

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Going to go out on a big limb here. After a 7-9 day stretch of above normal or near normal temp regime the bottom will fall out sometime around April 16 th near the full moon. Indices are trending towards a NEG NAO, NEG AO, NEGATIVE EPO, the PNA looks to stay pretty negative but with the priors in play it appears to me quite a cool to cold spell will setup with a roll over ridge. Been watching this for a while, N Canada still remains below normal and with that that type of config the false spring week could lead to a stormy cold Easter. Just something to watch

Yeah, there is a very recent declination in those polar field indices after 7-9 days, but ... being so knew, I think it is too soon to "go out on a limb". But that's just me. I'd like to give that signal 3 or 4 days to cook, because I have seen plenty of times in the past a new teleconnector signal abruptly arrive, only to mute when push comes to shove. It seems the ones that stick are more subtle when they emerge - but I could just be imaging that just the same.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, there is a very recent declination in those polar field indices after 7-9 days, but ... being so knew, I think it is too soon to "go out on a limb". But that's just me. I'd like to give that signal 3 or 4 days to cook, because I have seen plenty of times in the past a new teleconnector signal abruptly arrive, only to mute when push comes to shove. It seems the ones that stick are more subtle when they emerge - but I could just be imaging that just the same.

There's been a huge 10mb warming in the stratosphere..so we'll probably go into backdoor ,chair tipping, tailpipe french kissing, hairdryers in the bathtube weather as we round out the month and head into May

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's been a huge 10mb warming in the stratosphere..so we'll probably go into backdoor ,chair tipping, tailpipe french kissing, hairdryers in the bathtube weather as we round out the month and head into May

Isn't that Strato warning just the process of spring though?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's been a huge 10mb warming in the stratosphere..so we'll probably go into backdoor ,chair tipping, tailpipe french kissing, hairdryers in the bathtube weather as we round out the month and head into May

:lmao: - no kidding!

Remember in 2001 is snowed on the 22nd of May, to 1.5" on Boston Common? I think it did that the next year in 2002, where ORH had 3" in some May thing.

I also remember May of 2005 - worst Spring, 3 to 4 week spand inhumanely imaginable ever recorded in the history of being ram-rodded. 43/29, with wind swept drizzle, occasional NE gales, and heavy rain bouts, no exaggeration, for 3 to 4 weeks. Definition? HELL. end of story.

Franklly, if we get a couple of warm weeks and then it does an obnoxious snow in May I think that would be really interesting to follow. Hopefully we don't suffer a 2005er though. Ooph.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the 12z NAM is impressive in the MW/GL... Has a huge 570+dm thickness realm encompassing southern lower Michigan S, and through adjacent states, with a large plume of 20+C at 850, all in a well-mixed SW/WSW wind field in warm sector.

That's 90's for highs in central IL and IN -

This run also has a clear MCC leading the warm front up in the U.P. of Mich - amazing summery vibe on this run. Should that happen, that would rumble down over us sometime on Sunday one would think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guaranteed we go into some sort of backdoor, blocked up, drizzle period later in the month into early/mid May

After reviewing I am not that impressed just yet. First of all, that correlation is not as simple as whether an SSW event is underway... There are plenty of 'burster" events that don't correlate to AO behavior very well, and the reason appears to be related to whether the warm plume begins to descend in elevation in time. Sometimes the elevation of the warm and cooling events - most times actually - remain static in altitude. The AO and NAO appear to be controled more by planetary wave decay (terminating WAA scenarios) at higher latitudes during those times.

Infuse a deep cyclone into 60 N with it decaying WCB, that height inject will tend to at least transiently raise heights at mid levels up north, imosing the negative phase of the EPO, NAO and to some degree the AO depending on which side of the hemisphere conveyors are aligned.

With propagating warm and cool anomalies through the depths of the stratosphere, however, that is an exertion (eventually) from aloft, that ultimately causes downward vertical motion in the means (weakening polar vortex), or upward anomalies (strenghting polar vortex). The former is the -AO and the latter the +AO.

Clearly there is warming going on ... but 2 things:

1) We don't know if it is propagating or not; the correlation to driving the AO with that specicivity is very high. That determination should be made before assuming this current warming will impact the AO phase state.

2) Regardless, we are just about right on top of the seasonal terminous; if you go back and look at every year in the 32 year records for the monitoring division, regardless of what anomalies were on-going on April one, they are obolished and the entirety of the domain is utterly neutralized by May 1 of every year. In other words, it may be too late for this particular warming to have much impact.

That all said, ... there is a tendency in the extended to lower the AO toward neutral, but that tendency is rather recent and not all the members really agree too well as to the magnitude of that decent. It may be coincidental and over stated. Time will tell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...