CoastalWx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 There is a very warm plume around 3000' ASL evident on the model soundings yesterday and also evident on 12z soundings from OKX and ALY this morning. That's really keeping the inversion locked in, but I wonder if temps rebound around mid aftn..especially when the clearing comes in from the west. It's one of those things where the warmfront passed through, but not technically. Looks like the good stuff is in NJ and up through the Skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD. ONSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL LIMIT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS TO THE COAST. thank you April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 TORCH cancel Phail. TORCH IS ON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 There is a very warm plume around 3000' ASL evident on the model soundings yesterday and also evident on 12z soundings from OKX and ALY this morning. That's really keeping the inversion locked in, but I wonder if temps rebound around mid aftn..especially when the clearing comes in from the west. It's one of those things where the warmfront passed through, but not technically. Looks like the good stuff is in NJ and up through the Skills. Yeah marine influence is going to kill surface based convection for most of SNE except for areas NW of DXR-BDL-CEF-ORE. Model soundings look decent for severe across upstate NY and NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 TORCH cancel Phail. TORCH IS ON Yes, for the places that everyone expected to torch. The CT River Valley and W CT/Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 As far as I'm concerned it's hard to call it a torch unless it is over 75F. This is April 11th and real torches in Mid April usually bring widespread 80-85 by now. The record highs must be mostly over 80. A mild day yeah, but low/mid 70's on April 11th is just no big deal. That's kind of analogous to getting low/mid 40's in January and calling it a torch. Yes, for the places that everyone expected to torch. The CT River Valley and W CT/Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Not sure that BOX will be right for temps out here... 55-60 is the general temp range in N ORH county, BOX had us around 74F... still might happen in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 As far as I'm concerned it's hard to call it a torch unless it is over 75F. This is April 11th and real torches in Mid April usually bring widespread 80-85 by now. The record highs must be mostly over 80. A mild day yeah, but low/mid 70's on April 11th is just no big deal. That's kind of analogous to getting low/mid 40's in January and calling it a torch. Today's record at BDL is 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Yeah marine influence is going to kill surface based convection for most of SNE except for areas NW of DXR-BDL-CEF-ORE. Model soundings look decent for severe across upstate NY and NE PA Oh I meant good stuff as in "warm temperatures" but yeah Upstate NY could be a nice spot for some sizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 As far as I'm concerned it's hard to call it a torch unless it is over 75F. This is April 11th and real torches in Mid April usually bring widespread 80-85 by now. The record highs must be mostly over 80. A mild day yeah, but low/mid 70's on April 11th is just no big deal. That's kind of analogous to getting low/mid 40's in January and calling it a torch. I dunno... I tend to think of as torches being generally 10*F above climo...over a couple of days. But an hour or two of +10F to me is not a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Not sure that BOX will be right for temps out here... 55-60 is the general temp range in N ORH county, BOX had us around 74F... still might happen in a few hours. I think we'll see temps begin to warm quickly after 1pm away from the low clouds. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 67 here now.... ovc, but hazy sun breaks at times continue.... Oh I meant good stuff as in "warm temperatures" but yeah Upstate NY could be a nice spot for some sizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 56F at TAN. Perfect temp outside of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 56F at TAN. Perfect temp outside of winter. I'm HubbDave and I support this message. Very nice today if it is not winter. I also have the kids building solar powered cars with the hope of doing the competition on Friday. Hope the weather stays clear that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It appears the warm front is in the process of unilaterally mixing out throughout the interior ... Conditions changing pretty quickly here in central MA... Westborough (near junction of Rt 9/495 just jumped from mirky 59 to 67F and gaining, with large sky-lights opened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Very cool dave. Busy day for me. One year appointment in boston at the hematologist. Bloodwork looked good. Also had a biopsy done. Sucked royally. My ass is killing me, literally. Now I get to wait the excruciating 7-10 days for the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Is there anyone around within eye-shot WSW of ALB? Hi res visible imagery shows TCU in the vicinity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 There is a very warm plume around 3000' ASL evident on the model soundings yesterday and also evident on 12z soundings from OKX and ALY this morning. That's really keeping the inversion locked in, but I wonder if temps rebound around mid aftn..especially when the clearing comes in from the west. It's one of those things where the warmfront passed through, but not technically. Looks like the good stuff is in NJ and up through the Skills. You got that right... its been hovering near 50F between 3,000-4,000ft all morning while down here at 1,500ft we have been mid 30s all morning. Now up to a TORCH-like 41F at 1,500ft and 3,600ft remains near 50F. You can feel the inversion when you break through it riding the chairlift or skiing down through it... in a span of about 100 feet it goes from cool and damp feeling to almost oppressive/warmth and humidity. These are the days that keep the snowpack around...snow doesn't melt quickly at 36-41F, but 60-65F is another story... we were progged to be 60F at noon down here but are currently 19 degrees lower than yesterday's 24 hour forecast. And to end the torch, both GFS and NAM have frozen precipitation on the soundings for Wednesday morning. The GFS has KMPV (only state capital without a McDonalds) getting over 0.4" QPF as IP/SN on Wednesday morning. Could be borderline advisory snow/sleet/ice above 1,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Very cool dave. Busy day for me. One year appointment in boston at the hematologist. Bloodwork looked good. Also had a biopsy done. Sucked royally. My ass is killing me, literally. Now I get to wait the excruciating 7-10 days for the results. Wow, one year? I wish you the very best luck with that. Many hiking trips are in your future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It appears the warm front is in the process of unilaterally mixing out throughout the interior ... Conditions changing pretty quickly here in central MA... Westborough (near junction of Rt 9/495 just jumped from mirky 59 to 67F and gaining, with large sky-lights opened up. Yeah I think this is one of those things where we'll warm pretty good from early aftn, on. Not like we're hitting 85, but should warm through the 70s I think. The Mid Atlantic had something similar last week, where they absolutely torched in the aftn after being in the gutter all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Big time clearing in CNE now. Pushing 70F in S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Big melting. Big, big melting. http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KMAASHFI1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 If there was anything left to melt. 69.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 It's going to be rocking to our west later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Sun popped out an hour ago on my way back home for lunch, wonderfully warm and humid, hoping for a brush with 80, and cant wait for summertime 90s to 100 :sun: beach season only a couple months away Heat Heat Heat Heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Only 59F here so far...ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Yeah I think this is one of those things where we'll warm pretty good from early aftn, on. Not like we're hitting 85, but should warm through the 70s I think. The Mid Atlantic had something similar last week, where they absolutely torched in the aftn after being in the gutter all morning. Full sun here in Westborough... Light flag-extending SW winds. The last I checked it was 71F but I won't be able to check again until later on. Noting some points in eastern NY over 80F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 down to 68.8...sun gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 bdr 56 lol, pour souls, 66 here 75 at dxr, a true gem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I bet the next HPC surface analysis will have popped the warm boundary up into S NH... Am aware there are meso scaled cool pockets but you/these don't reflect what's going on in the bigger scope. If you are in SE CT, you're screwed - sorry, but that's not failure on the heat for the day because nuances/permutations of such natures will always exist in transitioning scenarios. Also, CC and Island and the immediate S Coast as behaving according to plan with this wind direction. Everyone else cooks for the rest of the afternoon. FIT: 111752 CLR 10 73 54 1911 020 001 73 58 111652 BKN090 10 66 52 1709 037 That kind of wind veering and temperature jump is indicative of warm frontal passage, and this is pretty consistent for everyone NW of SE CT to PVD and event BOS, line. I bet many make 77-78 for a high, with 80 not out of the question. If FIT pops to 77 by 3PM, 80 is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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