Arnold214 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 3 thunderstorms today already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Actually the place to be on Wednesday may be Canaan Valley Resort in WV where I was a little while back...3500' base elevation. Too bad they closed for the season. The latest NAM continues to shift the closed 5H low west more so maybe BTV is still in the game, but it has removed most of ENY and SNE...... Internal forecast has 2-4" here above 1,500ft from 00z Wednesday to 18z Wednesday. Maybe another snowfall before the season ends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 3 thunderstorms today already. Did you see the pics I linked to from Iowa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Did you see the pics I linked to from Iowa? Not yet. I'll look for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Not yet. I'll look for them. http://jenniferbrindleyphotography.com/blog/tornado-photos-mapleton-ia-chase-492011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Southerly winds in April suck, if we get a SW drying wind this afternoon with some clearing, game on, lots of cloud debris upstream right now. Was hoping for a decent outdoor day for the work cell project. 12z NAM brings 80F 2M temps to EWR and keeps SE CT in the 50s. Gotta love April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'll admit it..This appears to be a bust for most of SNE. Still cloudy everywhere with temps in the 50's..but a very muggy feel to the air. If the sun's not partially out by noon it's a PHAIL and I lose. You can actually see why that is happening... If you loop the high res sat imagery you can see that the cloud elements are tending to curl anticyclonically toward the SE as the mass comes east of the Berks... What that tells us is that the ridge axis aloft is slightly west of us, and that means that the warm front has loses impetus in moving NE. That ridge axis needs to get E of SNE, then the warm front will accelerate NE really quickly. We have seen 20F temperature spikes up here in SNE with warm fronts - it can happen, but it is tough to imagine that taking place in April. I recall one of my favorite severe days ever in June of 1988. It was 63/63 at 11AM with thunderstorms in the area. By 1pm, partial sun was breaking out and the convection was receding seaward. By 2:30 it was 82/74F, and by 5 ...86/74F, and an MCS was developing near ALB, which eventually roared down the Mohawk trail with 70mph winds and large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 That was a nasty humid month overall as I recall. I was working a summer job cooking chicken in the hot back kitchen of a Roy Rogers fast food joint. They kept playing Rick Astley and Pebbles endlessly on the top 40 station on the boom box...hideous. LOL But in late July I escaped to Europe to visit relatives and said bye to the heat on a 97F day at KJFK. You can actually see why that is happening... If you loop the high res sat imagery you can see that the cloud elements are tending to curl anticyclonically toward the SE as the mass comes east of the Berks... What that tells us is that the ridge axis aloft is slightly west of us, and that means that the warm front has loses impetus in moving NE. That ridge axis needs to get E of SNE, then the warm front will accelerate NE really quickly. We have seen 20F temperature spikes up here in SNE with warm fronts - it can happen, but it is tough to imagine that taking place in April. I recall one of my favorite severe days ever in June of 1988. It was 63/63 at 11AM with thunderstorms in the area. By 1pm, partial sun was breaking out and the convection was receding seaward. By 2:30 it was 82/74F, and by 5 ...86/74F, and an MCS was developing near ALB, which eventually roared down the Mohawk trail with 70mph winds and large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Socked in with fog and drizzle here, although a contact in Westchester says winds have picked up and clouds thinning, so maybe we can get into that in a bit, but thinking Upton's low 70's here are going to be stretch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 1) north 2) east 3) south 4) dissapated Hopefully better luck this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'll admit it..This appears to be a bust for most of SNE. Still cloudy everywhere with temps in the 50's..but a very muggy feel to the air. If the sun's not partially out by noon it's a PHAIL and I lose. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I'll admit it..This appears to be a bust for most of SNE. Still cloudy everywhere with temps in the 50's..but a very muggy feel to the air. If the sun's not partially out by noon it's a PHAIL and I lose. W CT will get warm. Your torch for eastern areas has already phailed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Socked in with fog and drizzle here, although a contact in Westchester says winds have picked up and clouds thinning, so maybe we can get into that in a bit, but thinking Upton's low 70's here are going to be stretch.... Not sure how far you are from the water there.... Sat imagery now shows more robust clearing in eastern NYS moving into western Mass and CT... That "thinning" may well go to partly sunny... HPC 13:30 z surface analysis shows the warm front SW of the area, but recent looping (last hour's worth actually) shows that the anticyclonic motion to the mid/ul deck is diminishing... With these observations it may be that we manufacture late highs from SW to NE across SNE. Could almost see FIT-BED-CEF region snapping from 64-ish to 79/61 around 5:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 1) north 2) east 3) south 4) dissapated Hopefully better luck this afternoon Some pretty impressive soundings X NY and PA from 12z today. Albany's is the best. Could be interesting across VT and WMA westward this afternoon. Also have a bit of thermal/lee side trof X CNY south thru CPA. May be the focal point for some pre-frontal action. Storm motion could be incredibly fast, too > than 45 kts for individual elements. Lines (that will probably form) moving @ 35 maybe 40 kts. Soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 W CT will get warm. Your torch for eastern areas has already phailed lol Well you had 80 and even 75 for BDL..you PHAIL as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Well you had 80 and even 75 for BDL..you PHAIL as well That was Friday morning. You had 80 and 70s for places like E MA yesterday lol And BDL still may get into the 70s. I'm not too worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 That was Friday morning. You had 80 and 70s for places like E MA yesterday lol And BDL still may get into the 70s. I'm not too worried about it. Your first forecast is what folks remember..not your revisions. You had 80 on here..on air..on your blog and on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Some pretty impressive soundings X NY and PA from 12z today. Albany's is the best. Could be interesting across VT and WMA westward this afternoon. Also have a bit of thermal/lee side trof X CNY south thru CPA. May be the focal point for some pre-frontal action. Storm motion could be incredibly fast, too > than 45 kts for individual elements. Lines (that will probably form) moving @ 35 maybe 40 kts. Soundings Nice day for bowing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Your first forecast is what folks remember..not your revisions. You had 80 on here..on air..on your blog and on Twitter Yes.... on Friday morning. lol You were forecasting that as of yesterday afternoon. And either way BDL may certainly get into the mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The wavelengths are shorter this time of year, so a West Coast trough actually teleconnects to an East Coast trough. In any case, the Euro and Euro ensemble have a positive PNA next weekend into early next week. It's really interesting how a -1SD PNA is somehow meaning nothing on the pattern over N/A. These runs that keep doing this have no business existing, but... eh, maybe the domain is a mess because of the shortening wave lengths or some shiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Hazy sun has broken through here now. The temperature has now risen to 63 rather quickly. Some pretty impressive soundings X NY and PA from 12z today. Albany's is the best. Could be interesting across VT and WMA westward this afternoon. Also have a bit of thermal/lee side trof X CNY south thru CPA. May be the focal point for some pre-frontal action. Storm motion could be incredibly fast, too > than 45 kts for individual elements. Lines (that will probably form) moving @ 35 maybe 40 kts. Soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Not sure how far you are from the water there.... Sat imagery now shows more robust clearing in eastern NYS moving into western Mass and CT... That "thinning" may well go to partly sunny... HPC 13:30 z surface analysis shows the warm front SW of the area, but recent looping (last hour's worth actually) shows that the anticyclonic motion to the mid/ul deck is diminishing... With these observations it may be that we manufacture late highs from SW to NE across SNE. Could almost see FIT-BED-CEF region snapping from 64-ish to 79/61 around 5:30pm. I'm about 3 miles inland...agree with your thoughts....wind is still dead calm though right at the moment, but I think we break out in the next hour.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Some pretty impressive soundings X NY and PA from 12z today. Albany's is the best. Could be interesting across VT and WMA westward this afternoon. Also have a bit of thermal/lee side trof X CNY south thru CPA. May be the focal point for some pre-frontal action. Storm motion could be incredibly fast, too > than 45 kts for individual elements. Lines (that will probably form) moving @ 35 maybe 40 kts. Soundings Some really decent mid level lapse rates. Impressive elevated instability. All we need is a few hours of decent heating, and with moist low levels we're off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Stuck at 50 here. Now THIS is a normal April down here with clouds and misery from the south or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Visible satellite shows lots of breaks over E NY, NJ, and NW CT/W MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 No blue visible here ..simply milky ovc, but now the hazy sun is out more often than not. Visible satellite shows lots of breaks over E NY, NJ, and NW CT/W MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Visible satellite shows lots of breaks over E NY, NJ, and NW CT/W MA Still a little bit milky, but quite a bit of blue sky showing through now, and I expect it will start heating up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Visible satellite shows lots of breaks over E NY, NJ, and NW CT/W MA Sun is mostly out here and its getting warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 TORCH cancel Phail. TORCH IS ON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Severe threat is on. What a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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