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Our first torch of 2011 April 11-12th


Damage In Tolland

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Wasn't that event kind of a bust except for the Mass Pike cell?

It was a massive bust. Hodographs were beautiful, but the thermodynamic profiles were putrid. Everyone thought it could overcome that given the history of the system over southern Michigan the day before, but no luck.

For a 10% tornado area PLUS a hatched area for strong tornadoes, AND a tornado watch specifying a 90% chance of at least 2 tornadoes and a 50% chance of at least one strong tornado ... there was not one tornado recorded that day in the Northeast.

If you search the SPC for the watches that day, it still doesn't list Watch #272 ... trying to cover it up :lol:

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It was a massive bust. Hodographs were beautiful, but the thermodynamic profiles were putrid. Everyone thought it could overcome that given the history of the system over southern Michigan the day before, but no luck.

For a 10% tornado area PLUS a hatched area for strong tornadoes, AND a tornado watch specifying a 90% chance of at least 2 tornadoes and a 50% chance of at least one strong tornado ... there was not one tornado recorded that day in the Northeast.

If you search the SPC for the watches that day, it still doesn't list Watch #272 ... trying to cover it up :lol:

Mid levels weren't ideal in that event iirc, what else is new..lol. It really takes a special set of ingredients to produce around here. Even of an EML is modeled over Michigan, if we have massive convection in that area, then it will ruin lapse rates thanks to latent heat release.

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Wed, here look it up, is all you use is your phone?

http://www.nco.ncep....am_850_072l.gif

No,

On my computer monitor it is 2" x 2" and really tiny.

Thanks for the link. When I saw Sam's post I was watching Little Bear with my daughter before bedtime and I was on the iPod.

This happened before with some of the images you posted. Maybe it is my computer only...

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No,

On my computer monitor it is 2" x 2" and really tiny.

Thanks for the link. When I saw Sam's post I was watching Little Bear with my daughter before bedtime and I was on the iPod.

This happened before with some of the images you posted. Maybe it is my computer only...

Nah it got resized auto somehow.

Wiz will like these pics from Iowa yesterday

http://jenniferbrindleyphotography.com/blog/tornado-photos-mapleton-ia-chase-492011

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CTUncertainty the new monicker?

"Euro weeklies are brutally cold for the time of year thru the end of April..Much much below normal"

"Sam and Birvine and Tippy are going to be absolutely miserable the next 30-45 days...much below normal temps, snowcover lasting into late April/..no spring warmth..nothing growing, nothing greening up..just cold and snowy holding hands with cold and dry...doe ci doe your partna"

"BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi ugly cold pattern northern plains to northeast starts later this week and lasts well into April. Bill Murray: Freeze,Gopher and golfers)"

"Euro weeklies are cold into the middle of April.. dig in for a long haul"

"JB all over it..Spring is over...Get out the heavy jackets, gloves hats and snowplows and shovels

That deep blue represents the idea that what I have been touting has merit, its 12 below normal!!!! and it also means weather more normal for MID FEBRUARY than late March!. Interestingly enough, the weather in mid February this year was more like late April!Dramamine anyone?

And yes, the snow/ice event the mid and latter part of next week is still a go, and in fact there may be a couple more of them in the weeks to follow"

"Yeah you can see the growing cold signal the last 7 days of the month on the enesembles and now the op Euro is starting to see it. After the 60's this week folks are gonna think it's warm for good. I bet April is a below normal month this year"

"Nina springs suck dude...you know it and so does everyone else..you can already see it setting up on the ensembles the final 10 days of the month..with -NAO

Gibbs texted me and said April and may look brutal this year. No getting around it this year."

"With the -NAO coming back late month and April I honestly can't wait to see those getting naked for spring anguish in misery as much as I hate cloudy, drizzly wx..it'll be worth it for them to suffer"

"JB says congrats to us late March/April

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Look for Neg NAO to evolve later March into April. Will be tough to be a little league parent or golfer new england to northern plains"

This may be closer to the truth for the next two-3 weeks than BIRV realizes.

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Scott and I were talking about it for a while earlier today.

That was 12Z and saw it, both American models got even colder at 18. Cutoff disaster for the flip flop crew, miserable really for all of us. False spring, wish we had gone into 2010 mode. Had first practice for the Women's team, comfortable playing weather, but certainly not a torch for April.

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That was 12Z and saw it, both American models got even colder at 18. Cutoff disaster for the flip flop crew, miserable really for all of us. False spring, wish we had gone into 2010 mode. Had first practice for the Women's team, comfortable playing weather, but certainly not a torch for April.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see some snow in the Berkshires and Poconos during the cut-off later this week.

Cut-off is pretty weak at 556dm but there's some cool air pouring in from Canada:

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On the NAM the best slug of moisture now comes in during the overnight Tuesday and it's under 0C 850 marginally. Hmm could I see flakes.......... :)

I believe the only hope anywhere would be when the sun is down....

I wouldn't be surprised if we see some snow in the Berkshires and Poconos during the cut-off later this week.

Cut-off is pretty weak at 556dm but there's some cool air pouring in from Canada:

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