earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 At 180 hours it's deepening rapidly off the coast about 100 miles too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 You see the polar jet getting involved? That's how you know there's major potential here.. Yes, I do! It's a pseudo-split flow at 200mb!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 988mb off the carolinas at 180 hrs and a split flow at 200mb...commence rapid cyclogenesis. The Euro was definitely on to something this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Wow..the surface low actually goes due north to the point where it's just east of the benchmark and sub 980mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Polar Jet.... yes, exactly what we need in absance of the STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 At 180 hours it's deepening rapidly off the coast about 100 miles too far east Better than 18z. Do you think the GFS is just slow, or do you think the Euro will look more like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 970mb low in the Gulf of Maine at 200 hrs..passed just east of the benchmark...Euro says hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Man, this split-flow is sexy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 THIS IS OH SO CLOSE: Vortmax in the Southern States, going on a neutral to negative tilt, let it form a cutoff low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 At 192 hrs the surface low is about 973mb and about 50 miles east of the 40/70 BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The GFS looks so close to showing at least something similar to the 12z Euro according to the 500 mb charts posted. A better run nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Most of New England can cheer about this run as the CCB backs into Southern New England at 192 and then slams New England afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Most of New England can cheer about this run as the CCB backs into Southern New England at 192 and then slams New England afterwards. Yea, I see that in the NE thread-- congrats Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 That storm becomes very potent. At this point, details aren't as important as what it's doing with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The GFS has a similar solution in the end near New England to the ECMWF, but it's handling of the entire h5 pattern is different, although either one is plausible. The Euro bombs the first shortwave and then amplifies it at the surface...the GFS is slower because it's stronger with the block and the shortwave is weaker. Things really go bonkers once the block lifts north and then the polar shortwave actually got involved which sent things through the roof. Either way, this is encouraging..the pattern is all blocked up and things are looking really interesting if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The highlighted shortwave is what really sent things through the roof this run...and could be a really, really awesome piece of potential should the GFS have the right idea here. I wouldn't get my hopes up, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 GFS looking much better tonight! Fingers crossed for the Euro later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yikes with the Miller B evolution, could end up being a heart breaker for some if it develops later than we want it to. There's some crazy potential out there, probably the best we're going to have this entire winter, I hope it delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The GFS has a similar solution in the end near New England to the ECMWF, but it's handling of the entire h5 pattern is different, although either one is plausible. The Euro bombs the first shortwave and then amplifies it at the surface...the GFS is slower because it's stronger with the block and the shortwave is weaker. Things really go bonkers once the block lifts north and then the polar shortwave actually got involved which sent things through the roof. Either way, this is encouraging..the pattern is all blocked up and things are looking really interesting if you ask me. yea, that was some serious piece of energy diving into the trof on the GFS causing massive amounts of UL divergence on the lee side, which is why it was really bombing out like that. It definitely looks encouraging... also having things blocked up a bit hopefully will keep this thing from really racing through quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The GFS has a similar solution in the end near New England to the ECMWF, but it's handling of the entire h5 pattern is different, although either one is plausible. The Euro bombs the first shortwave and then amplifies it at the surface...the GFS is slower because it's stronger with the block and the shortwave is weaker. Things really go bonkers once the block lifts north and then the polar shortwave actually got involved which sent things through the roof. Either way, this is encouraging..the pattern is all blocked up and things are looking really interesting if you ask me. Absolutely agreed, this kind of blocky pattern can offer plenty of potential the next couple of weeks. It will play havoc with guidance likely having little run to run consistency as well. Be interesting to see what the ggemm has to offer tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Next up....Canadian....feel like winter yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Next up....Canadian....feel like winter yet? Yessir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Absolutely agreed, this kind of blocky pattern can offer plenty of potential the next couple of weeks. It will play havoc with guidance likely having little run to run consistency as well. Be interesting to see what the ggemm has to offer tonight. Agree as well, plenty of potential on the maps. Again my main concern is suppression to the SE (basically the GFS depiction) but we've got time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 yea, that was some serious piece of energy diving into the trof on the GFS causing massive amounts of UL divergence on the lee side, which is why it was really bombing out like that. It definitely looks encouraging... also having things blocked up a bit hopefully will keep this thing from really racing through quickly. Well, you know what it is: Stronger Jet Streaks, Stornger Divergence Aloft, stronger sfc low. I would love to see a spin of intense vorticity that goes almost orange-red in color, super divergence aloft....... Yes, having a super block, will truly slow things down, likely can form a cutoff low (but I don't believe we will see those crazy cutoffs from 2009-2010, primarly STJ orign.... ahh the memories.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Happy winter all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Next up....Canadian....feel like winter yet? Feels like it, but that's not good enough. It has to look like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Next up....Canadian....feel like winter yet? It's ridiculous to stay up so late for model runs so far in advance - and simultaneously wonderful to tracking types like myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It's ridiculous to stay up so late for model runs so far in advance - and simultaneously wonderful to tracking types like myself No it isn't. I'm staying up for the Euro, even though I have to get up at 6:30 for school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 As long as we have this insanely strong blocking, we can have a lot of energy south of the block that can rotate around and potentially drop into any shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Next up....Canadian....feel like winter yet? let the sleepless nights begin... hey, I better get used to it. My wife and I are expecting our first in January.. I'll be up all night anyways.. I hope January and February are stormy.... just not when my wife goes into labor please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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