Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 We have initialized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 just wondering...why is our ULL system for dec. 5 called a "clipper" when it originates over Oregon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 just wondering...why is our ULL system for dec. 5 called a "clipper" when it originates over Oregon? Our shortwave energy for the December 5th system is not even in the CONUS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I don't necessarily expect much from the GFS...it's been a huge outlier with regards to showing essentially no surface reflection. That could easily be due to its cold bias...where all the blocking and confluence causes any shortwave to shear out. The 12z GFS certainly had some potential in the upper levels, and the 500mb low closed off and tried to turn the flow meridional, but there was no surface reflection. The 18z GFS had a stronger initial impulse of energy, but the energy kind of split up...and the flow could not turn meridional. I'd be surprised if its cold bias does not show up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 massive rain coming then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 big temp difference east/west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 out to 33 hrs right now, good soaking incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 At least with the warmth comes rain. GFS needs to get things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 major soaking, t-storms on back end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 (crickets chirping) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 (crickets chirping) probably because the model isn't anywhere close to out far enough. my god it is going to be a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 (crickets chirping) Its not even out that far yet... its out to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I think this will look a little better than 18z, but there still might not be a great surface reflection. The ridging in the central states is weaker, and that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I think this will look a little better than 18z, but there still might not be a great surface reflection. The ridging in the central states is weaker, and that's a good sign. The upper level low over the northeast is still a huge problem..and it's moving way too slowly on the GFS to allow anything of relevance to affect us with the shortwave over the upper midwest that becomes our potential storm. That shortwave is a bit slower this run, though, so that could offer some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hour 96, is our december 5th low near Montana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Hour 96, is our december 5th low near Montana? Yup, and like earthlight already said, its ejecting slower from the 18z run, but the ULL over the NE is in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The upper level low over the northeast is still a huge problem..and it's moving way too slowly on the GFS to allow anything of relevance to affect us with the shortwave over the upper midwest that becomes our potential storm. That shortwave is a bit slower this run, though, so that could offer some hope. Oh yeah, definitely. We do often see this in the models, especially the GFS, where it keeps that upper level low around for way too long, and has it be a very strong feature, which does not allow much room for amplification. As long as the GFS remains an outlier in this regard, we should be in good shape. I do see a bit more room on the 00z GFS, but nothing that stands out as "wow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 At 126 hours the shortwave over Minnesota is amplifying a bit, but there is still a good bit of confluence in the northeast. One thing that does offer some hope is a new area of troughiness now entering the northern plains near the international border at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Good sign: the upper level low on the GFS at 120 hours is NOT closed off, while it was closed off at 126 at 18z. It's really trying its hardest...still don't expect a great solution but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Big time shortwave amplifying on the back end of the trough into the northern plains is certainly helping things here..we will see what happens. Just another solution...proving how delicate this is and how far out the threat is itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 hr 150 on the gfs low pressure is over w pa, very lgt precip associated with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 I don't necessarily expect much from the GFS...it's been a huge outlier with regards to showing essentially no surface reflection. That could easily be due to its cold bias...where all the blocking and confluence causes any shortwave to shear out. The 12z GFS certainly had some potential in the upper levels, and the 500mb low closed off and tried to turn the flow meridional, but there was no surface reflection. The 18z GFS had a stronger initial impulse of energy, but the energy kind of split up...and the flow could not turn meridional. I'd be surprised if its cold bias does not show up again. Responding to myself, lol...the 0z GFS has a much better consolidation of the energy at 144 hours...I still expect a whiff, but the upper-level trends have been better than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 156-162 hrs at H5 shows how close this run was to pulling something off...but it's not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 GFS trending toward the ECMWF, but still a long long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 The ridging in the western states is also more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Lol, at 168 hrs the entire trough is going bonkers..but it's a day late and a dollar short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Polar shortwave phases into the trough at 171 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 THIS IS OH SO CLOSE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 THIS IS OH SO CLOSE: You see the polar jet getting involved? That's how you know there's major potential here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 the trough needs to go negative instead of pos on the gfs and then we would be in business. Not a bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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