Isotherm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 I think Upton has an anti-thunderstorm bias I believe there is small shot for anywhere except eastern half of LI and coastal CT of seeing an few non-severe general isolated thundershowers tomorrow night where I checked the total totals will go above 50 and there will meager instability around 300 from tomorrow night through Tuesday. All the other NWS station has thunderstorms in forecast including Tauton and Albany and there are both northeast of the area. Severe weather for area will not happen until probably at least May. IMO that SPC forecast looks reasonable. Winds will be almost due southerly off a 45 degree ocean, thus low levels will stabilize and effectively choke the inflow of approaching strong T-storms. NJ/NYC/LI could see some elevated convection but nothing severe or even impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Euro now has a 1.5 of rain for nyc for the cut-off wed-friday...... Tim, does it still have Thursday looking ok? How's Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 IMO that SPC forecast looks reasonable. Winds will be almost due southerly off a 45 degree ocean, thus low levels will stabilize and effectively choke the inflow of approaching strong T-storms. NJ/NYC/LI could see some elevated convection but nothing severe or even impressive. Agree Tom....Exactly what happen last tuesday when the convection hit the del river and fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Agreed. In the Wed-Sun period, I think Thu is the only day NYC will likely get into the 60s, and the only day where there will be more sun than clouds. If the cutoff moves far enough east, even coastal areas could approach 60. By the way, I'm not convinced anyone east of a Dobbs Ferry-Teterboro-Staten Island line will get into the 70s tomorrow. NAM RH profiles show low clouds hanging on a good portion of the day with winds backing from SW to S through the day. Yeah, agreed. I don't like the look of wind profiles tomorrow for anyone on the NJ shore, LI, or even eastern NYC surpassing 70 degrees. Low level cloudiness will be important, but with the progged wind direction, I'm expecting 80s to remain confined to PHL-TTN-MMU westward probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Tim, does it still have Thursday looking ok? How's Tuesday? Friday looks to be the warm day on the euro...thursday we dont get out of the 50's.....and tuesday morning starts out warm....then cools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 IMO that SPC forecast looks reasonable. Winds will be almost due southerly off a 45 degree ocean, thus low levels will stabilize and effectively choke the inflow of approaching strong T-storms. NJ/NYC/LI could see some elevated convection but nothing severe or even impressive. That is what I was thinking. Elevated Convention are the best sometimes because they can be great thunder and lightning producers and bring heavy downpours. That is why April is not good month for Severe Weather for the NYC area because you still got those cold waters and the marine air will kill any appoarching thunderstorm from the west. When the water's warm up in May and June the chances to do get better and the warm fronts go further north instead get hung up from the southwest but sometimes when it is hung up over the area that could produce storms itself when the cold air meets up with the warm air and that produce the elevated convention. I personally like the elevated convention alot better than those low-topped convention that occurs alot in the fall/ in cold season in general where they produce little to no lightning but on the other hand they are big wind producers and alot times they bring severe thunderstorm warnings but most of time there is no thunder and lighting associate with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 18z NAM text data definitely ticked a few degrees warmer than the 12z run at 21z tomorrow..especially into Western NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Through hr 66 nam is also pushing a inch of rain for the city for the mid week cutoff,,,perhaps i should make a thread....this thread more about the the torch monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The Weather Channel is calling for 80 at JFK, 85 at EWR, 81 at LGA, and 83 at Central Park. This is a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Newark is the only spot that has a shot of hitting 80 tomorrow and most likely the warm front will get hung over over the city or at best of over western LI and anywhere east of the Nassau and Suffolk County border will not get into the warm sector and that unfortunately includes my area being the screw zone of the marine air. Living now on the South Shore of Suffolk County is worse spot in the spring in terms of warm weather and thunderstorms too. If there is some sunshine in the afternoon then my area near Islip would warm up to the 55-60 degree range if not at low to mid 50's at best while the city could still break 70 or even into the low 70's. Further east and at the eastern end of LI including Montauk it would more chilly and perhaps the coolest spot tomorrow in the northeast where it may not even get out of the 40's and near 50 at best where the low clouds and fog would never clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 55 for yday and today here in southern queens, down to 49 now with a cold wind off the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 The Weather Channel is calling for 80 at JFK, 85 at EWR, 81 at LGA, and 83 at Central Park. This is a nail biter. SOOOOO not happening at JFK. The marine layer came in with a vengeance as feared here. I have heavy fog with neat zero visibility and 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 SOOOOO not happening at JFK. The marine layer came in with a vengeance as feared here. I have heavy fog with neat zero visibility and 45. 47 here with fog and I will be glad to hit 50 tomorrow if not [ to the marine air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 47 here with fog and I will be glad to hit 50 tomorrow if not [ to the marine air. Unfortunately you a probably right the water just doesn't want to warm up this year so expect more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 That is the price you pay living on LI but eastern end is usually the chilliest spot and at times it could be in the whole northeast aside from the Capes from Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 SOOOOO not happening at JFK. The marine layer came in with a vengeance as feared here. I have heavy fog with neat zero visibility and 45. at that call from TWC. JFK might not even break past 50 if that fog hangs on past noon. The south flow will increase as well in the afternoon to scuttle any warming even more. Just pure misery for this area for the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 at that call from TWC. JFK might not even break past 50 if that fog hangs on past noon. The south flow will increase as well in the afternoon to scuttle any warming even more. Just pure misery for this area for the next several days. The funny thing is, their TV forecast has us in the mid 60s for tomorrow and Tuesday. It's usually best not to expect anything warm for our area before June (outside of the odd west wind torch)..... by June we can really heat up as the water temps are much higher than they are right now (which is 40-41). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 6z NAM, low 80s in NE NJ and Staten with a SSW flow late this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6zNam Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 6z NAM, low 80s in NE NJ and Staten with a SSW flow late this afternoon: Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 wind and advection fog this morning at 48 degrees, nice spring weather for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 0z euro cloud cover maps have the entire area clearing out between 12pm-2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Some pokes of sun into c/s - NJ earlier but its cloudy again. cluds got in the way kind of spring so far, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 wind and advection fog this morning at 48 degrees, nice spring weather for the coast. Last night was the densest fog that I have seen down here at the beach in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 mainly low clouds... they will burn off by noon for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Yeah the clouds are much thinner and lower already. This is nothing like last week...most of us will be clear at or maybe slightly after noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 That being said, this is the second straight mess of a warm sector. Hopefully this isn't the trend that continues for the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 That being said, this is the second straight mess of a warm sector. Hopefully this isn't the trend that continues for the next several weeks. last year we almost never missed out, could be the total opposite this year, at least in the immediate NYC metro, not central, western, and southern jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 A ton of cloud thinning right now over Eastern PA and NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Temps are rising quickly even with the clouds. At 10am NYC is 60 and EWR is 61. It's going to be a very warm day in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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