Weathergun Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The NAM often starts out cold. Then trends warmer as we get closer. The 12z GFS MEX has high of 76 in NYC, and 72 in LGA on Monday. Also 70s for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 He will be talking about NAO blocks in July...trust me. In the world of realism..the days of very cold air are over...although the below normal days may continue for a few weeks. I can't wait to walk outside and feel warm on Monday. He must be a polar bear or something. I'm more concerned that isotherm who is a good forcaster thinks it will go back to being cold. Id rather have root canal than cold weather at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 He must be a polar bear or something. I'm more concerned that isotherm who is a good met thinks it will go back to being cold. Id rather have root canal than cold weather at this point. Isotherm is not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 [ I suspect we'll average near or above 4/10 - 4/18 followed by a period of cooler than normal. But with back and forth temperatue swings and one thats likely wetter than normal, I dont see a much below normal sustained pattern. Euro and GFS just disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 [ I suspect we'll average near or above 4/10 - 4/18 followed by a period of cooler than normal. But with back and forth temperatue swings and one thats likely wetter than normal, I dont see a much below normal sustained pattern. Euro and GFS just disagree The Euro ensemble mean brings back more of a trough in the east by around day 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Here is my prediction on the temps for Monday NYC - 70 LGA - 70 JFK- 60 FRG- 55 ISP - 54 FOK - 50 MTP - 49 BDL - 54 HVN - 51 ERK - 78 TTN - 80 PHL- 86 ATL -73 BWI - 88 DCA -90 ABE- 77 AVP- 75 ZRT - 62 BOS -56 ALB - 63 MSV-56 If you don't what the codes stand for look them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean brings back more of a trough in the east by around day 8-10. Yeah, but it's likely to be transient at that time with the AO and NAO still positive. Also the MJO is goes in the phase it briefly before going into the circle of death, next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean brings back more of a trough in the east by around day 8-10. yeah, I think once past the 18th we'll avg below normal but I just dont think we'll see significant negative departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Yeah, but it's likely to be transient at that time with the AO and NAO still positive. Also the MJO is goes in the phase it briefly before going into the circle of death, next week: Big Alaska/Bering Strait block though is keeping all the cold air on the Canadian side, so if we get a strong front, we should see some significant below normal departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Big Alaska/Bering Strait block though is keeping all the cold air on the Canadian side, so if we get a strong front, we should see some significant below normal departures. I don't see that much cold air making it down here, with the PV still way up in Northern Canada. The models not too long had pretty strong cold front on Tuesday, now it looks weaker with less cold air coming behind it. So I would be very skeptical with the models showing a strong cold front, at the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I don't see that much cold air making it down here, with the PV still way up in Northern Canada. The models not too long had pretty strong cold front on Tuesday, now it looks weaker with less cold air coming behind it. So I would be very skeptical with the models showing a strong cold front, at the end of next week. That makes more sense but likely there be some days with below average temps with eventually it will modify again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 I don't see that much cold air making it down here, with the PV still way up in Northern Canada. The models not too long had pretty strong cold front on Tuesday, now it looks weaker with less cold air coming behind it. So I would be very skeptical with the models showing a strong cold front, at the end of next week. I don't know, once that low tracking across the Canadian Prairies passes us, it should cool down...the reason the first front doesn't cool us down very much is that we're still really in a warm sector of that northern stream feature: Once that low passes Hudson Bay there'll be more chances of going below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 He must be a polar bear or something. I'm more concerned that isotherm who is a good forcaster thinks it will go back to being cold. Id rather have root canal than cold weather at this point. Scooter, thanks for the kind words. Nate is a good forecaster as well. I agree w/ him overall on the pattern the next few weeks, which should be biased colder than normal in the Northeast. Unfortunately a late blooming spring is looking likely this year. Note the temperature departures across the CONUS for April thus far. Generally near to slightly below normal, and this is w/ a sky high AO, +NAO, and near neutral PNA. Next week will generally be pleasant, but nothing well above normal. Thereafter, the AO will be falling rapidly down to neutral to slightly negative, along with a declining NAO. Note the monster trough in the Gulf of Alaska by D 6: With the shorter wavelengths at this time of year, a GOA trough actually teleconnects to a NE US trough, while the warmth will be off to the SW, across the Plains and Southeast. The question is - after next weekend, will the trough lock and hold? Some good news is the PNA will be declining in the medium to long term, so there should be increasing resistance w/ higher heights across the sern US. We'll likely have a pattern where 1/5 days is above normal, but most days near or cooler than normal. Best chance for severe negative departures is Friday-next weekend in conjuntion w/ the moisture laden storm, and behind it, 850's will plummet. When will the Northeast see a sustained warmer than normal pattern? We may need to wait until May for that, but thats for another discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 By the way...just a quick note..they fixed the RGEM on eWall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCREGEAST_0z/cmcregloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 By the way...just a quick note..they fixed the RGEM on eWall http://www.meteo.psu...cmcregloop.html i'm so glad they fixed it before a historic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 i'm so glad they fixed it before a historic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 :thumbsup: Looks like low 70s here, pleasant weather but not exactly an epic torch for mid-April when the average high is near 60F anyway. Screaming southerly winds with SSTs in the 40s doesn't exactly spell record warmth...if we have some cloud cover and winds turn SE, Monday might be cooler than expected...I think PHL and Central NJ should get near 80F if we clear out by 18z but could be a big gradient in the metro area with much colder temps in LI/Southern Westchester, SW CT, etc....After Monday, the rest of the week looks seasonably gorgeous with highs in the 60s and lows around 40F here in the suburbs...should start to see some green-up, but the larger trees like maples and beeches will take a few weeks to leaf out as they only have very small buds, or even no buds, as is the case with many trees at 400' elevation in the woods behind my house, which definitely has a much cooler climate than sea level urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 :thumbsup: the winds look straight out of the south on that scewing over the jersey coast and LI, but up here it looks like NYC on east is where that tight gradient sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 By the way...just a quick note..they fixed the RGEM on eWall http://www.meteo.psu...cmcregloop.html Ha ha. I saw that last night at 00z, err, Friday night. The RGEM and NAM BOTH had todays rain staying SW fo the area, didnt even have qpf at all for any part of NJ. The GFS was way more accurate. So while we now see the RGEM, its first PSU run was an epic fail. I do think its cloud forecasts are good tho. I know drag from PHI uses it a lot. as do I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 NAM coming in now with more of a SSW flow at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 clouds don't look like an issue monday http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNETACLD_12z/cldloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 clouds don't look like an issue monday http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cldloop.html Perhaps we'll exceed March 18th temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Should have just edited it ..posted 00z time frame from 12 Z by accident ..here is the correct one which is the mid 60s in NYC MON 18Z 11-APR 18.7 15.2 1006 78 8 0.01 575 570 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Glorious day today - what spring is all about. 57 and sunny in Villanova, don't even need a light jacket. Sat outside for 30 mins in the sun, feels like ages since we've had a long stretch of sunny weather around here. These temps are perfect IMO, days near 60. This week looks to be gorgeous, most days sunny with above normal temps, before we turn cooler by next weekend and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Nice day today but a tad chilly even in the sun with the sea-breeze knocking temps back down to the low 50s from a high of 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Beautiful day..it's been warm all day. Light breeze..love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 after a big time cutter and colder weather, long range gfs has a heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 after a big time cutter and colder weather, long range gfs has a heatwave You must have a different version of heat wave then what I do ... Just verbatim this run ...NYC area is in the middle 50s at this time frame... Now this is going by the text soundings but it is so far out in time that you know its going to change anyways... The warmer temperatures never really make it to the coast despite the ridge showing..perhaps error but like i said its so far out ..not worth the attention... Basically it looks like a pattern of warmth for a day or two followed by cold front followed by warmth of a day or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 You must have a different version of heat wave then what I do ... Just verbatim this run ...NYC area is in the middle 50s at this time frame... Now this is going by the text soundings but it is so far out in time that you know its going to change anyways... The warmer temperatures never really make it to the coast despite the ridge showing..perhaps error but like i said its so far out ..not worth the attention... Basically it looks like a pattern of warmth for a day or two followed by cold front followed by warmth of a day or two... yeah its probly useless to look at details this far out, i just saw that map and posted it. The threads are dead today anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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