Cfa Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 That looks better than before (I think?), I assume it means less onshore flow, and as for temps I can't really zoom into more detail since the borders are so thick. Hopefully we're potentially 75+ in western Long Island, we're not really displayed (just another black line) so I'm assuming that's a contour line for the 75-79 range running through extreme western Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Wow the DGEX is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Wow the DGEX is beautiful i love that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 i love that model Me too...as if that hasn't already been well documented Seriously though, I don't love it...but it can be useful if you know how to use and interpret it. It's guidance after all, just like everything esle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 i love that model It's a weenie model .According to the DGEX, I should of received over 200 inches of snow this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 It's a weenie model .According to the DGEX, I should of received over 200 inches of snow this past winter. yup, it always pulled thru to create a HECS out of every shortwave. Now its time to see 80s and 90s on it everyday. Its an awesome model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 The Dgex should be renamed earthlightex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 00z GFS looks like it slows the warm front even more on Sunday, keeping NYC eastward in the 50s. Nicest days for the coast may actually be Tuesday-Thursday of next week with sfc HP directly overhead, mild 850's, NW downsloping flow. Monday should torch inland, but the coolness within 10 miles of the ocean is more pronounced on this run (by coolness I mean 60s, relative to the 80+ across the interior mon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 00z GFS looks like it slows the warm front even more on Sunday, keeping NYC eastward in the 50s. Nicest days for the coast may actually be Tuesday-Thursday of next week with sfc HP directly overhead, mild 850's, NW downsloping flow. Monday should torch inland, but the coolness within 10 miles of the ocean is more pronounced on this run (by coolness I mean 60s, relative to the 80+ across the interior mon). Also, watch out for a hard freeze next weekend. Pretty amplified trough behind the 14-15th storm. IMO troughiness may become more prevelant in the Northeast for the second half of April, especially considering the declining AO and NAO in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 00z GFS looks like it slows the warm front even more on Sunday, keeping NYC eastward in the 50s. Nicest days for the coast may actually be Tuesday-Thursday of next week with sfc HP directly overhead, mild 850's, NW downsloping flow. Monday should torch inland, but the coolness within 10 miles of the ocean is more pronounced on this run (by coolness I mean 60s, relative to the 80+ across the interior mon). It looks as if Monday is really our chance for a torch this month; the GFS brings in a pseudo SW flow event after that with a powerful cold front around Day 7/8, -10C 850s moving into the Upper Midwest. HM has also mentioned the possibility of an extended -NAO block in the longer range, and the 12z ECM brought a sharp trough into the East at Day 10 with a cold core of -20C 850s over SE Canada. We'll have to see how winds behave on Monday; the flow looks to be almost due southerly, perhaps a bit SSW, so it will be easy for the sea breeze to develop. Could be a situation where PHL hits 85F while LI is stuck in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Also, watch out for a hard freeze next weekend. Pretty amplified trough behind the 14-15th storm. IMO troughiness may become more prevelant in the Northeast for the second half of April, especially considering the declining AO and NAO in the longer term. getting into the long range here but the gfs brings back a neutral/pos PNA which would also favor troughiness over the east unfortunately. And wet weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Not sure how many of you seen this from the KPHL region but HM paid a visit The pattern next week is a classic MJO response along with the retrogression we have been seeing. I wouldn't be surprised if this system kicks off the beginnings of a -NAO pattern... a late season Heather A signal if you will. The core of the cold air in the northern stream on the 12z EC is between -10 and -18c at h85. If that were to drop in, I would have to say all bets are off as far as snow. HM Post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 0z/08 GFS MOS has a high of 76-77 for NYC-LGA and 71 for JFK on Monday. That's with a SSW flow and some low clouds and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 00z GFS looks like it slows the warm front even more on Sunday, keeping NYC eastward in the 50s. Nicest days for the coast may actually be Tuesday-Thursday of next week with sfc HP directly overhead, mild 850's, NW downsloping flow. Monday should torch inland, but the coolness within 10 miles of the ocean is more pronounced on this run (by coolness I mean 60s, relative to the 80+ across the interior mon). I agree. There really isn't that much cold air coming behind the cold front on Tuesday. It certainly won't be 80. But I wouldn't be surprised to see some coastal locations warmer mid-week, than on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Monday looks like a forecasting nightmare for NYC and some other cities, right now it looks like the following highs and wind directions. My Guess. DCA: 92 - SW wind PHL: 88 - SW wind EWR: 74 - on edge of warmfront with S to SW winds CPK: 70 - S wind LGA: 70 - S wind JFK: 58 - edge of marine layer and SE flow through Eastern Queens and LI This is where the seagull sh*ts the bed for Monday - Long Island - Drizzle / Marine Layer until cold front catches up to stalled warm front and sea breeze. ISP: 48 - SE wind BDR: 47 - SE wind FOK: 45 - SE wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 this is great stuff to hear...where are all the people who said la nina meant no warm weather until mid May define irony? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzZfuo0oCfE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 getting into the long range here but the gfs brings back a neutral/pos PNA which would also favor troughiness over the east unfortunately. And wet weather Yeah we look to go back right into a below normal pattern for the end of april....very late spring this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 12Z NAM definitely on the cooler side for Monday... doesn't bring 2M 70 degree line anywhere near NYC metro.. need to be in western NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Love it...torch here. Hopefully it can get further northeast too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Love it...torch here. Hopefully it can get further northeast too looks cold here, maybe by next wed we can have some nice weather with temps in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 looks cold here, maybe by next wed we can have some nice weather with temps in the 60s. this is a miserable spring. we have had just about one nice day. There arent any buds on the trees, and very few signs of life other than some bulb sprouts...nothing worse than the current weather. i know its only april 8, but still, ONE warm day? Come on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 We have had one day over 61 since march 1....and only 2 days over 60...insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Man o man, today is another miserable day.. And now i see the nam is picking up on the cold dome over NE jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 12z euro gets NYC to 70 degrees, Monday at 2pm, and probably higher in between 18z and 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 A big west to east temperature gradient otherwise known as spring in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 the GFS brings in a pseudo SW flow event after that with a powerful cold front around Day 7/8, -10C 850s moving into the Upper Midwest. HM has also mentioned the possibility of an extended -NAO block in the longer range, and the 12z ECM brought a sharp trough into the East at Day 10 with a cold core of -20C 850s over SE Canada. For some reason I feel as if you enjoy this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 For some reason I feel as if you enjoy this. He will be talking about NAO blocks in July...trust me. In the world of realism..the days of very cold air are over...although the below normal days may continue for a few weeks. I can't wait to walk outside and feel warm on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Whatever NAO block that may develop will likely be extremely transient given the pattern surrounding it...and with the Pacific in shambles the SE Ridge looks to build even more towards Easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Love it...torch here. Hopefully it can get further northeast too The NAM always ruins it. I hate that model. It shows 50's for most of LI with the 40's only for the eastern end. I do not looking forward for this another blocking pattern for the later this month. It hasn't been 60 F yet this month here. LI is not the best place to live for warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 He will be talking about NAO blocks in July...trust me. In the world of realism..the days of very cold air are over...although the below normal days may continue for a few weeks. I can't wait to walk outside and feel warm on Monday. It's all relative...a high of 45F is very cold for late April, like -20 departure...just as a high of 15F would be very cold for mid-January, also a -20 departure. So far, the pattern has been chilly; it looks as if we may see a few days of above normal temperatures from Monday-Thursday before the chill returns. Whatever NAO block that may develop will likely be extremely transient given the pattern surrounding it...and with the Pacific in shambles the SE Ridge looks to build even more towards Easter As if the GEFS at 324 hours have any forecasting skill....better to look at the MJO and listen to what the pros say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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