Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

4/10-4/11 Potential torch


earthlight

Recommended Posts

That looks better than before (I think?), I assume it means less onshore flow, and as for temps I can't really zoom into more detail since the borders are so thick. Hopefully we're potentially 75+ in western Long Island, we're not really displayed (just another black line) so I'm assuming that's a contour line for the 75-79 range running through extreme western Nassau County.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 438
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It's a weenie model .According to the DGEX, I should of received over 200 inches of snow this past winter.:arrowhead:

yup, it always pulled thru to create a HECS out of every shortwave. Now its time to see 80s and 90s on it everyday. Its an awesome model

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS looks like it slows the warm front even more on Sunday, keeping NYC eastward in the 50s. Nicest days for the coast may actually be Tuesday-Thursday of next week with sfc HP directly overhead, mild 850's, NW downsloping flow.

Monday should torch inland, but the coolness within 10 miles of the ocean is more pronounced on this run (by coolness I mean 60s, relative to the 80+ across the interior mon).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS looks like it slows the warm front even more on Sunday, keeping NYC eastward in the 50s. Nicest days for the coast may actually be Tuesday-Thursday of next week with sfc HP directly overhead, mild 850's, NW downsloping flow.

Monday should torch inland, but the coolness within 10 miles of the ocean is more pronounced on this run (by coolness I mean 60s, relative to the 80+ across the interior mon).

Also, watch out for a hard freeze next weekend. Pretty amplified trough behind the 14-15th storm. IMO troughiness may become more prevelant in the Northeast for the second half of April, especially considering the declining AO and NAO in the longer term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS looks like it slows the warm front even more on Sunday, keeping NYC eastward in the 50s. Nicest days for the coast may actually be Tuesday-Thursday of next week with sfc HP directly overhead, mild 850's, NW downsloping flow.

Monday should torch inland, but the coolness within 10 miles of the ocean is more pronounced on this run (by coolness I mean 60s, relative to the 80+ across the interior mon).

It looks as if Monday is really our chance for a torch this month; the GFS brings in a pseudo SW flow event after that with a powerful cold front around Day 7/8, -10C 850s moving into the Upper Midwest. HM has also mentioned the possibility of an extended -NAO block in the longer range, and the 12z ECM brought a sharp trough into the East at Day 10 with a cold core of -20C 850s over SE Canada. We'll have to see how winds behave on Monday; the flow looks to be almost due southerly, perhaps a bit SSW, so it will be easy for the sea breeze to develop. Could be a situation where PHL hits 85F while LI is stuck in the 60s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, watch out for a hard freeze next weekend. Pretty amplified trough behind the 14-15th storm. IMO troughiness may become more prevelant in the Northeast for the second half of April, especially considering the declining AO and NAO in the longer term.

getting into the long range here but the gfs brings back a neutral/pos PNA which would also favor troughiness over the east unfortunately. And wet weather :thumbsdown:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure how many of you seen this from the KPHL region but HM paid a visit

The pattern next week is a classic MJO response along with the retrogression we have been seeing. I wouldn't be surprised if this system kicks off the beginnings of a -NAO pattern... a late season Heather A signal if you will.

The core of the cold air in the northern stream on the 12z EC is between -10 and -18c at h85. If that were to drop in, I would have to say all bets are off as far as snow.

HM Post

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS looks like it slows the warm front even more on Sunday, keeping NYC eastward in the 50s. Nicest days for the coast may actually be Tuesday-Thursday of next week with sfc HP directly overhead, mild 850's, NW downsloping flow.

Monday should torch inland, but the coolness within 10 miles of the ocean is more pronounced on this run (by coolness I mean 60s, relative to the 80+ across the interior mon).

I agree. There really isn't that much cold air coming behind the cold front on Tuesday. It certainly won't be 80. But I wouldn't be surprised to see some coastal locations warmer mid-week, than on Monday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Monday looks like a forecasting nightmare for NYC and some other cities, right now it looks like the following highs and wind directions. My Guess.

DCA: 92 - SW wind

PHL: 88 - SW wind

EWR: 74 - on edge of warmfront with S to SW winds

CPK: 70 - S wind

LGA: 70 - S wind

JFK: 58 - edge of marine layer and SE flow through Eastern Queens and LI

This is where the seagull sh*ts the bed for Monday - Long Island - Drizzle / Marine Layer until cold front catches up to stalled warm front and sea breeze.

ISP: 48 - SE wind

BDR: 47 - SE wind

FOK: 45 - SE wind

Link to comment
Share on other sites

getting into the long range here but the gfs brings back a neutral/pos PNA which would also favor troughiness over the east unfortunately. And wet weather :thumbsdown:

Yeah we look to go back right into a below normal pattern for the end of april....very late spring this year...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

looks cold here, maybe by next wed we can have some nice weather with temps in the 60s.

this is a miserable spring. we have had just about one nice day. There arent any buds on the trees, and very few signs of life other than some bulb sprouts...nothing worse than the current weather. i know its only april 8, but still, ONE warm day? Come on!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the GFS brings in a pseudo SW flow event after that with a powerful cold front around Day 7/8, -10C 850s moving into the Upper Midwest. HM has also mentioned the possibility of an extended -NAO block in the longer range, and the 12z ECM brought a sharp trough into the East at Day 10 with a cold core of -20C 850s over SE Canada.

For some reason I feel as if you enjoy this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For some reason I feel as if you enjoy this.

He will be talking about NAO blocks in July...trust me.

In the world of realism..the days of very cold air are over...although the below normal days may continue for a few weeks. I can't wait to walk outside and feel warm on Monday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Love it...torch here. Hopefully it can get further northeast too

The NAM always ruins it. I hate that model. It shows 50's for most of LI with the 40's only for the eastern end. I do not looking forward for this another blocking pattern for the later this month. It hasn't been 60 F yet this month here. LI is not the best place to live for warm weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He will be talking about NAO blocks in July...trust me.

In the world of realism..the days of very cold air are over...although the below normal days may continue for a few weeks. I can't wait to walk outside and feel warm on Monday.

It's all relative...a high of 45F is very cold for late April, like -20 departure...just as a high of 15F would be very cold for mid-January, also a -20 departure. So far, the pattern has been chilly; it looks as if we may see a few days of above normal temperatures from Monday-Thursday before the chill returns.

Whatever NAO block that may develop will likely be extremely transient given the pattern surrounding it...and with the Pacific in shambles the SE Ridge looks to build even more towards Easter

As if the GEFS at 324 hours have any forecasting skill....better to look at the MJO and listen to what the pros say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...