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4/10-4/11 Potential torch


earthlight

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ECM was never showing a torch for the city of New York.. It was showing a persistent onshore flow which kept temps at NYC around 70 and then inland from NYC it was warmer in the 70s.. LI especially eastern looks to be in the 50-60 range ... Overall though this run aside from monday even inland is actually cooler then the previous run was...

Correct..but the previous runs of the Euro had areas in NJ even just west of newark over 80 degrees. We will see where future runs take us. Long Island was never forecast to be near that warm.

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In the pattern last April,we were able to get into more of a WSW flow so the warmth was able to push further east through NYC and Long Island.

Last April

Forecast for Monday

:thumbsdown:

As long as we stay out of the marine layer we should do ok.

i love sunny spring mornings when it hits the mid 60's before the afternoon seabreeze crush takes us back down to the 50's.

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:thumbsdown:

As long as we stay out of the marine layer we should do ok.

i love sunny spring mornings when it hits the mid 60's before the afternoon seabreeze crush takes us back down to the 50's.

I hope so, I'm more removed from the ocean but we still get seabreezes too sometimes (as well as stagnant air due to obstacles), especially in Spring. The water temperature has been 42 degrees since January (according to my Weather Channel app), I know there's a delay but I didn't know it'd still be the same in April. Don't want to stray off topic though.

Still holding out hope for at least 70's.

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:thumbsdown:

As long as we stay out of the marine layer we should do ok.

i love sunny spring mornings when it hits the mid 60's before the afternoon seabreeze crush takes us back down to the 50's.

It's always interesting to watch the times that the winds exceed guidance when the set up is right.

The sand starts blowing off the beach and the white caps kick up.

http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_144401.htm

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It's always interesting to watch the times that the winds exceed guidance when the set up is right.

The sand starts blowing off the beach and the white caps kick up.

http://ams.confex.co...aper_144401.htm

13 Years as an ocean life gaurd and I can definitly vouch for these events. I usualy use when the sand begins to blow as visual confirmation of reaching the threshold. These events can be very strong with winds sustained around 30kts under sunny skies. Like the paper said they are definitely most common in June and July and become less frequent as water temps rise in late summer.

Hopefully there is enough of a westerly component to the flow next week to prevent marine layer development.

Nothing worse then 78 and sunny in Manhattan and 45 with low clouds and fog right on the beach.

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13 Years as an ocean life gaurd and I can definitly vouch for these events. I usualy use when the sand begins to blow as visual confirmation of reaching the threshold. These events can be very strong with winds sustained around 30kts under sunny skies. Like the paper said they are definitely most common in June and July and become less frequent as water temps rise in late summer.

Hopefully there is enough of a westerly component to the flow next week to prevent marine layer development.

Nothing worse then 78 and sunny in Manhattan and 45 with low clouds and fog right on the beach.

Can't remember the exact day, but I drove into Brooklyn last spring and it was incredible. As soon as I hit the Staten Island expressway I could see what looked like a very low hanging cloud. When I got on the verazzano bridge, the temperature went from the mid 80s to the mid 40s. I had been wearing a short sleeved short and shorts and was freezing.

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Can't remember the exact day, but I drove into Brooklyn last spring and it was incredible. As soon as I hit the Staten Island expressway I could see what looked like a very low hanging cloud. When I got on the verazzano bridge, the temperature went from the mid 80s to the mid 40s. I had been wearing a short sleeved short and shorts and was freezing.

Something similar happened to me in late March 2009 (I think?) North Queens was well into the 70's but when I drove out to Islip it was only 43. Brutal change.

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We lost Sunday on the 12z Euro.

It had 62-65 for a few runs and todays euro gets us only to 54 degrees with rain moving in the afternoon and continuing into the night.

there have been hints of a convective system along the warm front

it could easily bust in either direction

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We lost Sunday on the 12z Euro.

It had 62-65 for a few runs and todays euro gets us only to 54 degrees with rain moving in the afternoon and continuing into the night.

Monday gets very close to 70 into NYC and Tuesday into the mid 60's. Only thing is it looks like there will be scattered drizzle, both days.

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Can't remember the exact day, but I drove into Brooklyn last spring and it was incredible. As soon as I hit the Staten Island expressway I could see what looked like a very low hanging cloud. When I got on the verazzano bridge, the temperature went from the mid 80s to the mid 40s. I had been wearing a short sleeved short and shorts and was freezing.

May 9, 2007 had a similar marine flow gradient. I managed to grab a shot off a webcam of the lowcloud bank that delineated the airmass, and it was exactly as you described, right along the Verazzano bridge.

050920071815_l.jpg

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May 9, 2007 had a similar marine flow gradient. I managed to grab a shot off a webcam of the lowcloud bank that delineated the airmass, and it was exactly as you described, right along the Verazzano bridge.

050920071815_l.jpg

Wow, awesome shot. That's exactly what I was describing. It was really incredible to experience driving through the changing conditions. When I got back to New Jersey, it was in the 80's with full sun.

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I hope LI gets at least into the upper 50's if not the 60's for Monday while metro NJ and near NYC get near 80 F. Sunday will be cooler with 55-60 F for NYC and low 50's for LI.

12z euro text soundings for Islip, dont get out of mid 50's for both Monday and Tuesday.

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Who wants heat in April when pools and beaches aren't open? Save the 80-90+ for May and beyond as far as I'm concerned. I'll be satisfied with 60s and 70s. Even 50s with sun is beautiful at this time of year.

Looking at our local forecasts, I don't see any mention of sunshine for the next 5 days lol.

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I hate living in LI and it sucks for thunderstorms and it is too cold. It better not be in the 40's on Monday or if I had enough money I would back to the city. I don't care about the snow so much and I am more a fan for warm weather to tell the truth.

Well it'll probably be raining Monday regardless of where you are in our area.

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I hate living in LI and it sucks for thunderstorms and it is too cold. It better not be in the 40's on Monday or if I had enough money I would back to the city. I don't care about the snow so much and I am more a fan for warm weather to tell the truth.

If you like cheap living, warm weather and crazy thunderstorms think about a move to central Florida.

Personally for me there is nothing better then storm chasing a crazy noreaster right in my back yard so ill deal with less thunderstorms and cool springs. Just wait until we get slammed by a hurricane in the next few years!

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Well it'll probably be raining Monday regardless of where you are in our area.

Hopefully late afternoon or evening and maybe if there is some instability and lift there could be some embedded thunderstorms thrown in I hope and don't care about severe because too early for that though.

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If you like cheap living, warm weather and crazy thunderstorms think about a move to central Florida.

Personally for me there is nothing better then storm chasing a crazy noreaster right in my back yard so ill deal with less thunderstorms and cool springs. Just wait until we get slammed by a hurricane in the next few years!

Maybe just parts of NJ I am sure is cheaper because I do like to see all four seasons but there are sometimes where LI had there share of good thunderstorms and even elevated storms I have to say are the best when it comes to lightning and thunder production even ahead of a warm front or surviving cool marine air sometimes.

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southern NJ is alot cheaper in most spots than Northern NJ, it's almost like another state once you pass say exit 98 on the GSP. If you love severe weather, move somewhere from OK, southeast towards AK, MS or AL. The Mississippi river valley seems to be where the most action occurs.

Very true but I know once I have money at all I probably will not always being living on LI but anywhere away from the coast has better chances of severe weather because of less marine air and that is why NJ or PA maybe a good spot to live if you want both severe weather and see some snow in the winter.

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